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June 5th-September 1st, 2023 | Severe Storm Sequence


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14 minutes ago, OHValleysnow said:

Looks like a tornado in Knox, IN.  Not too far from my mom's home.  I just sent them a text to take cover. 

New severe thunderstorm warning for that cell saying baseball size hail.

Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
240 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

The National Weather Service in Northern Indiana has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northeastern Starke County in northwestern Indiana...
  Northwestern Marshall County in north central Indiana...

* Until 330 PM EDT/230 PM CDT/.

* At 238 PM EDT/138 PM CDT/, a severe thunderstorm was located near
  Hamlet, or near Knox, moving northeast at 35 mph.

  THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR northeast Starke and northwest
  Marshall counties.

  HAZARD...Baseball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured.
           Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs,
           siding, and vehicles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Plymouth, Knox, Hamlet, Koontz Lake, Oak Grove, La Paz, Ober, Twin
  Lakes, Tyner, Donaldson, Linkville, Grovertown, Burr Oak and Bass
  Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT/700 PM CDT/ for
north central and northwestern Indiana.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4148 8630 4148 8627 4126 8626 4125 8667
      4135 8668
TIME...MOT...LOC 1838Z 246DEG 29KT 4133 8657

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

 

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2 minutes ago, junior said:

Clearing out in W OH now. 

Yup…the clearing line is right on my doorstep. Gonna have a few hours to keep it baking. These lower level winds are really pushing, too. F34528D8-977D-48ED-A155-13EC6507AD69.thumb.jpeg.08753dc61106b79717359ac42d4777c9.jpeg

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ILN with an early afternoon AFD update. Probably because of the balloon launch.

Quote
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
222 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid conditions are expected today with showers and
thunderstorms developing later this afternoon and into this
evening. A slow-moving upper level low will lead to cooler
conditions Monday into Tuesday along with a continued chance for
showers and few thunderstorms each day. Drier and warmer
conditions will evolve toward midweek and beyond.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
The decaying clusters of SHRA/TSRA that migrated through the ILN
FA this morning have long departed to the SE. Remnant MCS cloud
debris continues to meander about the region and advect back in
from the S in the wake of the activity, but latest satellite
imagery does show more substantial clearing nearing the OH/IN
line. In fact, skies should trend mostly sunny from W to E
across EC IN/WC OH and the Tri-State through mid afternoon,
aiding in and enhancing the destabilization efforts that are
well underway upstream across cntrl/wrn IN.

The focus for the near term period is, of course, a concerning
setup for widespread severe weather late this afternoon through
the evening. Latest mesoanalysis trends, in conjunction with
near-term hi-res model data, suggest rapid theta-e advection NNE
into wrn parts of the ILN FA by 21z, owing to the simultaneous
influx of moisture-rich LL air (sfc DPs in the lower 70s) and a
seasonably stout EML advecting in from the W. This should lead
to a steepening of both LL and midlevel lapse rates, allowing
for rapid SB and deep-layer destabilization and for the
environment to become strongly to extremely unstable (3000+
J/kg SBCAPE) across the wrn third of the ILN FA by/beyond 21z.
Additionally, the arrival of a midlevel speed max and associated
midlevel S/W will provide more than enough forcing and large-
scale ascent to continue to initiate/expand/strengthen
convection across cntrl/ern IN into wrn OH by/past 21z. With
deep-layer (0-6km shear near/in excess of ~50 kts), and
effective SRH of 150-300 m2/s2, storm organization will occur
quickly upon initiation.

There are two main concerns as we progress into the evening
hours, especially from 22z through 03z. The first concern is
going to be the potential that initial discrete activity
develops more robustly before growing upscale, a scenario that
is most likely to manifest itself across EC/SE IN, SW OH, and N
KY between 22z-01z. This activity, owing to favorable overlap
between shear/instby/SRH parameter spaces, could bring with it
all modes of severe weather, including damaging wind, large hail
(potentially significant (2"+ diameter)), and tornadoes. A
particularly concerning scenario would be if this activity
remains discrete for several hours in a row before growing
upscale and transitioning more to a widespread damaging wind
threat. Undoubtedly this is one of the reasons for these locales
to be the only ones with a simultaneous overlap between the
hatched tornado/wind/hail probs in the latest SPC SWO and
certainly agree these areas should see the most favorable setup
for all severe hazards.

The second concern is going to be the widespread damaging wind
threat, which is most likely to occur in two main factions --
1) across WC (~21-00z) and central OH (00z-03z) where the
better orthogonal orientation between the forcing/lifting
mechanism and the 0-3km bulk shear vector will be sustained
through the evening hours and 2) later into the event with
eastward extent as early evening convection grows upscale and
congeals into one or more bowing segments/lines. This would be
favored more for locales E of the I-71 corridor and into south-
central OH and NE KY past 02z. Could very well see SCT to
numerous instances of gusts near/in excess of 70 MPH.

Severe activity will wane toward/past midnight, with a few
lingering TSRA possible in far NE KY and south-central OH into
early overnight. Otherwise, expect a mainly quiet overnight
period, with even some clearing possible across parts of the FA
during the middle of the night.

 

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There was 3" hail in Knox IN.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
308 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     Hail             Knox                    41.29N 86.62W
06/25/2023  M3.00 inch       Starke             IN   Public

            Multiple pictures on Facebook of 2 inch
            hailstones and one 3 inch hailstone that
            fell in Knox, IN around 1:40 PM CT.

 

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Warning with 80mph winds!

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
323 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023

The National Weather Service in Northern Indiana has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southern Elkhart County in north central Indiana...
  Western Noble County in northeastern Indiana...
  Northern Kosciusko County in north central Indiana...
  Western Lagrange County in northeastern Indiana...

* Until 400 PM EDT.

* At 322 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Dunlap to near Nappanee to 8 miles northeast of
  Bourbon, moving east at 40 mph.

  THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS FOR SOUTHERN ELKHART AND NORTHERN
  KOSCIUSKO COUNTY.

  HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect
           considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles.
           Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  Goshen, Warsaw, Nappanee, Ligonier, Syracuse, Lagrange, Dunlap,
  Middlebury, Wakarusa, Milford, Topeka, North Webster, Millersburg,
  New Paris, Benton, Shipshewana, Etna Green, Leesburg, Cromwell and
  Honeyville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for north central
and northeastern Indiana.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4159 8537 4131 8548 4129 8562 4130 8565
      4129 8565 4125 8606 4133 8606 4143 8600
      4159 8604 4175 8540
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 256DEG 34KT 4157 8593 4144 8591 4135 8596

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH

 

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Mesoscale Discussion 1256
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0222 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

   Areas affected...Portions of southern IN and southern/central KY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 251922Z - 252045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging
   winds should increase this afternoon. Tornado watch issuance will
   likely be needed in the next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...Recent attempts at convective initiation have been
   noted across parts of southern IL along and just ahead of a surface
   cold front. Latest visible satellite imagery also shows an outflow
   boundary from prior convection arcing northward from middle TN into
   western KY and far southwestern IN, intersecting the cold front in
   far southeastern IL. Low-level winds to the west of the outflow
   boundary have generally veered to west-southwesterly. But surface
   and boundary-layer winds along/east of this boundary are backed to
   south-southeasterly.

   A rather unstable and strongly sheared environment is present across
   southern IN into western/central KY ahead of the cold front, and
   near the outflow boundary. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong
   diurnal heating of a very moist low-level airmass are contributing
   to 1500-2500+ J/kg of MLCAPE this afternoon. A 50+ kt mid-level
   westerly jet and veering wind profile with height through mid levels
   is supporting 45-55+ kt of deep-layer shear. Supercells are expected
   to continue forming with southward extent along the cold front into
   southwestern IN. Very large hail will be a threat with this
   initially discrete development.

   The tornado threat is less clear in the short term due to weak
   low-level winds. But, backed southerly winds to the east of the
   outflow boundary along with gradually increasing winds associated
   with an approaching low-level jet should support locally greater 0-1
   km SRH, and some threat for tornadoes, as convection spreads
   eastward into central KY later this afternoon and early evening.
   Damaging winds will also be possible with any upscale growth into
   small clusters that can occur. Given the potential for robust
   supercells to develop along/near the OH River in the next 1-2 hours,
   Tornado Watch issuance will likely be needed.

   ..Gleason/Grams.. 06/25/2023

 

mcd1256.png

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