StormfanaticInd Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Seeing signs of initial development around Chicago now👀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 I suspect a meso discussion will be out shortly for Indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 If Reed is talking about it, then I’m a bit more aware. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWsnowhio Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Clouds taking their sweet time getting out of the way here in Ohio. Just now really starting to get some decent clearing here in Findlay. Suppose there’s still plenty of time to get some fuel before things chug this way. Will be an interesting afternoon/evening watching this develop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Hatched tornado area shrunk but they added hatched to the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Quote Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/CENTRAL OH VALLEY TO THE MID/DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe storms are expected through tonight across a broad portion of the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Mid and Deep South. The greatest threat for tornadoes, at least a couple of which could be strong, appears to be in the eastern Indiana, western Ohio, and northern Kentucky vicinity during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Central Great Lakes/OH Valley to the Mid/Deep South... Shortwave trough over the Upper MS Valley will shift east into Lower MI tonight. Attendant surface cyclone will similarly track east from west-central WI into west-central Lower MI. Arcing cold front will have greater eastward advancement across parts of the Midwest, with trailing portion drifting south-southeast across the Mid-South. A broad swath of severe potential remains evident ahead of this front, likely yielding scattered areas of severe storms and embedded mesoscale corridors of more numerous reports. Ongoing convection persists across southeast KY into middle/eastern TN and will probably continue along the gradually eastward-shifting, north/south-oriented MLCAPE gradient. An isolated damaging wind threat should exist downstream across the southern Appalachians. A scattered wind/hail threat may emerge within multicell clusters that can regenerate westward later this afternoon over the TN Valley and persist into this evening. Potential for more numerous severe events appears to be focused within two bimodal corridors along/ahead of the front. The first is in the vicinity of eastern IN/western OH/northern KY border. Scattered thunderstorms will increase during the next few hours in the Lake MI vicinity arcing south across IN and then southwest across the Lower OH Valley. In the wake of the morning convection in KY, trailing outflow appears to have finally stalled across western KY and far southwest IN. How far to the northeast recovery can occur in its wake is uncertain, but it is plausible that it may be able to reach the IN/OH/KY border area by late afternoon/early evening. With a plume of mid 70s surface dew points to the west of this outflow, large buoyancy with MLCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg will become common. Despite gradual weakening of the strong mid-level jetlet attendant to the shortwave trough, the leading edge of 50+ kt 500-mb westerlies should overlay the Lower OH Valley portion of the front. This setup will likely yield the best CAPE/shear/SRH parameter space near the IN/OH/KY border area where a few intense supercells are expected, capable of producing strong tornadoes and destructive hail/wind. Quicker upscale growth into clusters/QLCS is expected with northern extent where deep-layer wind profiles will be less favorable for maintaining discrete supercell structures. This activity should eventually outpace/become pinched off from the large buoyancy plume emanating from the Lower OH Valley. A second area of potentially destructive hail and wind should emanate along the AR portion of the front. The 12Z LZK sounding had a very favorable thermodynamic profile with a mean-mixing ratio of 18 g/kg and mid-level lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km. With 74-77 F surface dew points common to the south of the front, very large buoyancy of 3500-4000 J/kg will be prevalent by late afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will develop across northern AR and quickly become supercells within the gradient of mid/upper west-northwesterly flow. This type of orientation semi-parallel to the front should support upscale growth during the evening. Most morning CAMs are consistent in suggesting an MCS will evolve southeast across the Lower MS Valley with an enhanced threat for damaging winds. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 06/25/2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Close up of the tornado threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted June 25, 2023 Admin Share Posted June 25, 2023 The storms all broke apart as they moved through Ohio on the 12z 3k NAM. Looked super strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Some partial clearing starting. Sticky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 8 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said: The storms all broke apart as they moved through Ohio on the 12z 3k NAM. Looked super strange. Wouldn’t surprise me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Just now becoming aware of the threat today and now I’m getting interested. Gonna be active today and I’m off so I’m all in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Tornado Watch now up for Indiana and far northwest Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 (edited) Still a bit cloudy here but there are breaks out west although still slight building. Didn’t rain here at work. Edited June 25, 2023 by junior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 374 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Indiana Far southern Lower Michigan Northwest Ohio Lake Michigan * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1235 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Initial supercells will develop near the Indiana-Michigan border area and arc south through the body of Indiana this afternoon. Wind-driven, very large hail is likely with the tornado threat increasing towards eastern Indiana and northwest Ohio. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles southeast of Bloomington IN to 40 miles northeast of South Bend IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Grams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWsnowhio Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 36 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said: The storms all broke apart as they moved through Ohio on the 12z 3k NAM. Looked super strange. Interesting. Did it show them breaking apart and fizzling? Or breaking apart yet maintaining? Not saying this is (nor is anybody wanting to see anything even close to) the same situation, but the Memorial Day 2019 (Dayton) outbreak was in main part due to storms breaking apart/staying somewhat discreet instead of congealing as forecasted. Regardless, keep an eye open and stay safe! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted June 25, 2023 Admin Share Posted June 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, NWsnowhio said: Interesting. Did it show them breaking apart and fizzling? Or breaking apart yet maintaining? Not saying this is (nor is anybody wanting to see anything even close to) the same situation, but the Memorial Day 2019 (Dayton) outbreak was in main part due to storms breaking apart/staying somewhat discreet instead of congealing as forecasted. Regardless, keep an eye open and stay safe! Not sure what happened! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 375 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 155 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western to central Lower Michigan Lake Michigan * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Clusters with embedded supercells, especially across southwest Lower Michigan, will spread east-northeast through the afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles northwest of Houghton Lake MI to 15 miles southeast of Kalamazoo MI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 374... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Grams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said: Not sure what happened! I wouldn't put too much faith in that model. IMO it's not always very accurate with convection. The HRRR is consistently showing a line blowing up in east IN and moving southeast through OH. Although more discrete cells look to dive towards southwest OH. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted June 25, 2023 Admin Share Posted June 25, 2023 15 minutes ago, Sam said: I wouldn't put too much faith in that model. IMO it's not always very accurate with convection. The HRRR is consistently showing a line blowing up in east IN and moving southeast through OH. Although more discrete cells look to dive towards southwest OH. I figured it was having trouble with convection. It just looked really odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Storms now exploding to west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 (edited) Tornado warning for northern Indiana Edited June 25, 2023 by StormfanaticInd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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