ElectricStorm Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 Matador tornado rated prelim EF3/165. I'm a little surprised, I thought it would be a little higher but still a very powerful storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 Today's threat is starting up. Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 370 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central to eastern Iowa * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A few supercells should develop across central Iowa and spread into eastern Iowa later this afternoon. Wind profiles will be most favorable for large hail and tornadoes through late afternoon. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northeast of Mason City IA to 45 miles southwest of Ottumwa IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Grams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted June 24, 2023 Admin Share Posted June 24, 2023 Wilmington is really talking up the threat in central Ohio for tomorrow (especially straight line winds). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 18z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 Latest from ILN Quote .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... There are some questions in regards to the maintenance of convective activity further into the ILN FA Sunday AM with the MCS/clusters of SHRA/TSRA, especially as it relates to just how long destabilization efforts take behind this activity. A more well- formed MCS track, which would likely be sub-severe (although it could have some gusty winds, especially near the Tri-State), would act to stabilize the LL environment even through early afternoon in the wake of the activity. Such a scenario would act to delay the better destabilization efforts more into the late afternoon/evening, which would essentially act to squash any potential for mid afternoon convection. The most likely scenario at this juncture is a decaying MCS which survives part way into the ILN FA before dissipating with further SE movement by mid/late morning. There will be cloud cover to contend with regardless, but there should be a clearing trend as we progress into early/mid afternoon from W to E. By late afternoon into the evening, as the midlevel low moves into the wrn Great Lakes region, broad-scale diffluence aloft and the core of a seasonably potent jet streak/speed max rounding the srn periphery of the low center will allow for forcing and large-scale ascent to increase rather dramatically into early evening. This will allow for deep-layer shear to increase to 35-40+ kts and will coincide with rapid destabilization efforts amidst LL theta-e advection NNE into the area and an overspreading of a stout EML from the W, increasing both the LL and midlevel lapse rates. Depending on the solution of choice, strong to extreme instby (on the order of 2500+ J/kg SB/MLCAPE) will develop through most of the ILN FA, with the best pooling of highest instby likely focusing near the I-75 corridor past 21z. Although there are admittedly a few timing differences to be worked out as it relates to the most favorable overlap of a very favorable deep-layer thermodynamic environment and a seasonably robust kinematic environment as well, confidence continues to increase regarding the potential for widespread strong/damaging wind gusts and large hail (owing to unseasonably steep/deep midlevel lapse rates ~7.5C/km). The greatest concern would be a scenario where an initial cluster/clusters of storms merge into one or more bowing segments, with the strong 0-3km bulk shear (45+ kts) vectors oriented at approximately 280 degrees, offering a nearly ideal orthogonal orientation to the forcing/lifting mechanisms for downward momentum transfer. This would create the potential for widespread (and potentially significant) wind gusts across large portions of the local area through the evening hours. The other concern, although it appears to be a less likely outcome, will be the somewhat backed LL flow across WC and central OH and EC IN during this time, suggesting that the tornadic threat is certainly not zero. This threat, should it evolve, would likely be focused more with earlier evening activity if the cells can remain more discrete/separated in nature. However, do think that with the strength and sudden onset of the forcing and ascent, there will be fairly quick upscale growth with any convection as we progress later into the evening, with strong/damaging winds becoming the primary threat across a much larger area. Overall, the severe storm chances will decrease fairly abruptly behind any more well-formed bowing/linear segments, with the severe threat/coverage waning toward midnight and beyond. Do feel that an ENH SWO is well-warranted given the parameter spaces locally late afternoon through the evening. Will maintain HWO as is for now, with more aggressive verbiage possibly needed as we get closer to the event, with the main severe time window locally likely 5 PM through 11 PM. A few SHRA may linger into early Monday morning, but most local spots should be dry as we progress toward/beyond 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 Confirmed tornado near Flom MN. Quote BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 358 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023 The National Weather Service in Grand Forks has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Norman County in northwestern Minnesota... Southwestern Mahnomen County in northwestern Minnesota... Northern Becker County in northwestern Minnesota... * Until 445 PM CDT. * At 358 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Flom, or 27 miles north of Detroit Lakes, moving north at 20 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Mahnomen, Waubun, Flom, Beaulieu and Faith. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4714 9610 4717 9615 4740 9612 4734 9580 4711 9593 TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 188DEG 17KT 4718 9606 TORNADO...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 Another confirmed tornado near Lockhart MN. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 409 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023 MNC107-119-242130- /O.CON.KFGF.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-230624T2130Z/ Norman MN-Polk MN- 409 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN NORMAN AND SOUTHWESTERN POLK COUNTIES... At 409 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Lockhart, or 36 miles southeast of Grand Forks, moving north at 25 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Norman and southwestern Polk Counties. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4742 9664 4744 9673 4758 9682 4762 9663 4747 9654 TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 160DEG 20KT 4747 9664 TORNADO...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 Still 2 confirmed tornadoes in MN. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 439 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023 MNC119-242200- /O.CON.KFGF.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-230624T2200Z/ Polk MN- 439 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL POLK COUNTY... At 438 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Beltrami, or 34 miles southeast of Grand Forks, moving north at 20 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Beltrami. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4750 9666 4756 9669 4758 9651 4750 9651 TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 163DEG 16KT 4753 9659 TORNADO...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN Quote BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 437 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023 The National Weather Service in Grand Forks has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southern Polk County in northwestern Minnesota... Northwestern Mahnomen County in northwestern Minnesota... * Until 515 PM CDT. * At 436 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Mahnomen, or 37 miles north of Detroit Lakes, moving north at 20 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Bejou. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4732 9582 4731 9592 4735 9599 4756 9596 4753 9571 TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 188DEG 17KT 4735 9591 TORNADO...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 25, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 25, 2023 Wouldn't wanna be in S IN/W KY tomorrow. Nasty environment for supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 0z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Gonna get interesting tomorrow afternoon. Let's first see if any morning convection makes it here. It appears like it starts to decay as it makes it into OH, perhaps there is enough spacing for destabilization. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 What do you guys think about Warren county lebanon specifically? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 please don't let this be a tease. we want 60dbz and we want out of the drought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 25, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 25, 2023 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Chinook said: please don't let this be a tease. we want 60dbz and we want out of the drought That rain isn't going to do much if anything to the drought. HRRR only gives you less than 0.5", and some of that will be runoff because heavy rain isn't efficient for denting droughts. Edited June 25, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Eric Elwell jus posted this on FB. Quote Eric Elwell 23m · PLEASE STAY WEATHER AWARE SUNDAY- The late-night models here Saturday night still continue lend to increasing confidence in severe storms by late afternoon into the night on Sunday. ALL MODES of severe weather will be possible. The greatest risk at the moment appears to be from what could be widespread damaging wind gusts. In fact, wind gusts could be up to or over 70mph with some of the stronger storms if our models verify. There is also a threat for tornadoes, mainly toward the beginning of the severe threat window as storms are initially developing. Models are showing that initial line of storms may not make it into Ohio until after 7 or 8pm but could arrive earlier. Storms could continue well into the night. PLEASE HAVE A WAY to receive weather alerts and information, even if you were to lose power. A reminder that we will be streaming all of our weather coverage directly on the Spectrum News App, so now is a good time to make sure you have it. Please also make sure you recharge your mobile devices before the storms arrive. There is a chance that storms early in the morning could help decrease the instability, it may just only delay the storms, but not completely stop them. We will want to watch this closely through the day. Below are graphics that show probability of hail, high winds over 50 knots (about 58mph) and probability of over 65 knots (about 75mph). The graphic also shows the models probability of a tornado, which as you can see is not zero. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Last frame of the 4z HRRR. I'd think we would see expansion of the slight into MI and enhanced expanded north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Well this escalated quickly and i'm not surprised at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Quote Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN INDIANA INTO WESTERN OHIO...MUCH OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY...MIDDLE AND WESTERN TENNESSEE...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may become numerous late this afternoon into tonight across parts of the southeastern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley, into the lower Ohio Valley and adjacent portions of the Great Lakes. This may include supercells with a risk for tornadoes across parts of central and eastern Indiana into western Ohio and central Kentucky. ...Synopsis... Split flow across the eastern Pacific into western North America may amplify a bit further today through tonight. While ridging within the northern branch builds across the British Columbia vicinity, a significant perturbation within larger-scale southern branch troughing is forecast to progress inland across the central/southern California coast. As this occurs, short wave ridging, extending to the north of a prominent subtropical high centered over southwest Texas, appears likely to build across the Rockies into the Great Plains, while a significant downstream mid-level low digs southeast of the Upper Midwest through the Great Lakes region. This will be preceded by increasingly sheared mid-level troughing overspreading the Atlantic Seaboard, including the remnants of a cyclonic circulation turning northeastward across the northern Mid Atlantic toward southern New England. The prominent interior U.S mid-level low will be accompanied by a broadening, occluded surface cyclone, trailed by a cold front advancing southeast of the lower Missouri through lower Ohio Valleys, with a segment farther southwest stalling and weakening across the central into southern Great Plains. A corridor of seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content (with lower/mid 70s F dew points) along and southeast of this front likely will support large CAPE (on the order of 2000-4000 J/kg), beneath a plume of steep lapse rates associated with elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the southern Great Plains. This plume will gradually become suppressed southward and southwestward across the lower Ohio Valley and Mid South, beneath flow transitioning from west-northwesterly to northwesterly, to the southwest of the digging low. Closer to the center of the low, it appears that a belt of 50-70 kt flow around 500 mb will nose across the lower Missouri through lower Ohio Valleys. ...Southern Great Plains into Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... The coverage and intensity of the severe weather threat for today may be considerably impacted by sub-synoptic/mesoscale developments which has been a source of sizable model spread. However, it is appearing increasingly probable that forcing for ascent downstream of the digging mid-level low and associated troughing may be supporting an area of vigorous convection, mainly rooted in a lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection regime, across the western Kentucky/Tennessee vicinity at the outset of the period. Convection allowing model output suggests varying subsequent evolution. However, aided by rapid boundary-layer destabilization with insolation to the south and southwest of this activity, it is possible that associated outflow may gradually support increasing new boundary-layer based thunderstorm development. There appears sufficient shear to support an upscale growing cluster with potential to produce strong wind gusts, with a tendency to propagate south-southeastward then southward along the eastern periphery of the better low-level moisture and instability, in the wake of the Atlantic Seaboard mid-level trough. Stabilization in the wake of this initial convective cluster results in more uncertain convective potential across parts of the Tennessee into lower Ohio Valleys. However, a narrow corridor of moderate to strong pre-frontal destabilization across Indiana into southern Michigan may provide another focus for strong thunderstorm initiation by early this afternoon. Beneath increasingly difluent and strengthening west-northwesterly mid/upper flow on the nose of the digging jet, it appears that the environment could support scattered discrete supercells, at least initially. Preceded by an remnant effective warm frontal zone, associated with outflow from early convection, it appears that this activity may be accompanied by increasing tornadic potential potential, in addition to large hail, while spreading across Indiana into western Ohio, with additional storms perhaps developing southward into central Kentucky through this evening. Late this afternoon into this evening, if not a bit earlier, there are indications that one or two perturbations (likely of subtropical eastern Pacific origin) may contribute to thunderstorm initiation along and ahead of the cold front across parts of northern Arkansas into central Oklahoma. Beneath at least modest northwesterly mid-level flow, in the presence of strong instability, the environment appears conducive to consolidating and organizing clusters, with southeastward propagation focused along the northeastern periphery of the subtropical ridge. ...Northern Intermountain Region/Rockies... A corridor of weak destabilization, along the track of a northeastward migrating short wave perturbation may provide a focus for vigorous thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. Deep-layer mean wind fields likely will be generally weak, but relatively steep low-level lapse rates may contribute to potential for small hail and perhaps brief, occasional gusts near severe limits. ..Kerr/Lyons.. 06/25/2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 25, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 25, 2023 (edited) Seems the northern part of the enhanced risk will have a better chance of turning linear, but certainly looks like S IN/W KY has a better chance of semi-discrete/discrete storms which would likely be supercellular with the greater tornado threat. Also gotta watch for the tail end of the linear portion of the event for a supercell. Seems to me the 10% hatched is a good idea. Slow year so far for the OV but the severe season there is so long, it was only a matter of time. Edited June 25, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 (edited) Really high bust potential as the line comes through this afternoon. It’ll probably race south/southeast as it approaches, so the northern part of the risk area might not see a drop. Or the line will split. Let’s see how this plays out but I’ve seen this show too many times before. Morning crapvection on its way, eroding as usual and leaving us with a sprinkle and a whole lot of clouds. Edited June 25, 2023 by NWOhioChaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 5 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Seems the northern part of the enhanced risk will have a better chance of turning linear, but certainly looks like S IN/W KY has a better chance of semi-discrete/discrete storms which would likely be supercellular with the greater tornado threat. Also gotta watch for the tail end of the linear portion of the event for a supercell. Seems to me the 10% hatched is a good idea. Slow year so far for the OV but the severe season there is so long, it was only a matter of time. Yeah, this is literally many’s first chance at severe weather since like late April. It’s been rediculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 (edited) Day 1 update from 9am expands the 10% tornado area north and east to now include most of the I-75 corridor in Ohio with mention of strong tornadoes possible from both SPC and ILN. ILN posted on FB they are doing a 4pm balloon launch to determine the extent of destabilization. Quote Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH REGION INTO MUCH OF ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Threats for at least a few tornadoes, along with scattered severe gusts and large/damaging hail, will be possible over parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region. The hail/gust threat will extend southwestward across the Mid-South region into much of Arkansas. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the CONUS portion of the large-scale pattern will continue to feature mean troughing in the Eastern States and near the West Coast, with ridging over the Rockies and adjoining Great Plains. This ridging will shift slowly eastward through the period as: 1. A positively tilted synoptic-scale trough, initially located from the Canadian Rockies across the interior Pacific Northwest to offshore from CA -- moves slowly eastward. A couple weak vorticity maxima in the foregoing cyclonic flow, now over parts of OR and northeastern CA -- will pivot northeastward over ID toward the northern Rockies. 2. A substantial cyclone -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over MN and parts of adjoining states -- intensifies while moving east-southeastward to Lower MI by 12Z tomorrow, and toward the mean-trough position. The combination of expansion and deepening of the associated 500-mb low will lead to height falls spreading across most of the Appalachians, Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and even Mid-South region. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed an occluded low near MSP, with cold front across eastern IA, southeastern KS, northern/western OK, the TX South Plains, and east-central NM. A warm front was drawn over northwestern to southern IL, western portions of KY/TN, and MS, and will shift northeastward across more of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions throughout the day. By 00Z, the low should reach the MKE/GRB corridor, while the cold front should reach central/ southwestern IN, southern IL, northern AR, south-central OK, the Permian Basin region of west TX, and east-central NM. By 12Z, the (by then) deeply occluded low should be located near MBS, with the cold front extending from the upper Ohio Valley region across middle TN to central AR. The western segment will stall and perhaps begin moving northward as a warm front over parts of north and west TX to east-central/northeastern NM. ...Ohio Valley and vicinity... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop in one or two organized arc or lines of lift related to: 1. The front impinging on a destabilizing boundary layer up and down western parts of the outlook area, and perhaps 2. A prefrontal/lake-breeze convergence zone over western Lower MI. Damaging to severe gusts and large hail are likely as activity organizes upscale following an early, discrete to semi-discrete stage. Supercellular tornado and large-hail threats will exist along nearly the entire corridor. That said, potential for strong tornado(es) and significant/damaging-hail should be relatively maximized across the eastern IN/western OH and perhaps southern Lower MI sector, where the supporting CAPE/shear parameter space will overlap best. In that swath, large low-level hodographs will develop ahead of the main convective band, leading to 150-300 J/kg effective SRH and 40-50-kt effective-shear magnitudes. That will be collocated with a northward-directed corridor of afternoon destabilization and increasing buoyancy related to: 1. Warm/moist advection behind the morning activity, 2. Steepening low-level lapse rates from diabatic heating, and 3. Increasing midlevel lapse rates from a combination of the northeastward-advected EML plume and large-scale ascent preceding the progressive cyclone. This should lead to a plume of MLCAPE ranging from around 3000-4000 J/kg over the lower Ohio Valley to 1500-2000 J/kg in parts of central/northern Lower MI, to where greater severe probabilities have been expanded northward. Severe potential overall should diminish with time and eastward extent tonight as activity gradually moves into lower theta-e. ...Mid-South to southeastern OK... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the surface cold front this afternoon over the Ozarks, with a least isolated to widely scattered activity backbuilding westward across western AR into stronger EML-related MLCINH and somewhat weaker/ more-mixed moisture profiles over southeastern OK. Severe gusts are possible, along with large hail (some significant/2+ inches in diameter) with any supercells. As activity aggregates and evolves upscale across parts of AR and the Mid-south region this evening, an organized MCS may develop, moving eastward to southeastward mainly from forward/cold-pool-driven propagation. This will increase the damaging-wind threat in both intensity and density this evening, with the convection weakening overnight across parts of MS/AL. Steep low-level lapse rates and favorable moisture (dewpoints 60s to low 70s F) in the warm sector will underlie large midlevel lapse rates in the EML, resulting in peak afternoon MLCAPE commonly in the 2500-3500 J/kg, locally near 4000 J/kg. Flow near the surface will be somewhat veered/southwesterly and modest in strength, limiting hodograph size. However, this area will reside under the southern rim of stronger mid/upper flow related to the height falls and tightening gradient aloft, leading to effective-shear magnitudes in the 30-40 kt range, supporting mixed multicell and supercell characteristics prior to upscale organization. ...Northern Rockies... Widely scattered to scattered, high-based thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, mainly developing over the mountains and moving northeastward across adjoining parts of central MT before weakening this evening. Isolated severe gusts will be the main concern. The approaching voracity maxima, and related increase in DCVA/large- scale lift, will coincide with diurnal heating of the higher terrain, yielding steep low/middle-level lapse rates. Though moisture will be limited, enough should persist to support MLCAPE of 300-700 J/kg over the region -- slightly larger east of the mountains where residual moisture will be greater. Gust potential will be supported by the deep, well-mixed boundary layer. ...Central High Plains... A few strong-severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon as higher terrain and near the Laramie Range is heated amidst marginal low-level moisture, preferentially eroding MLCINH. Isolated severe gusts and/or hail are possible before convection weakens over the NE Panhandle. Near-surface flow will be weak, but with a substantial easterly component, contributing upslope lift to that needed for initiation. Forecast soundings show strong veering with height, as well as favorably vigorous mid/upper-level flow (50-80 kt through the upper 1/2-1/3 of the CAPE profile), contributing to long, nearly straight hodographs and around 35-45 kt effective-shear magnitudes. MLCAPE to around 500 J/kg should overlie a well-mixed, deep subcloud layer, until nocturnal cooling and (with eastward extent increasing MLCIN from both the EML base and decreasing low-level theta-e. ..Edwards/Mosier.. 06/25/2023 Quote Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wilmington OH 456 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023 INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-260900- Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio- Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant- Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke- Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison- Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway- Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown- Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto- 456 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Strong to severe storms are likely later this afternoon into this evening. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats, although a few strong tornadoes will also be possible, especially along and west of the I-75 corridor. The most likely time frame for severe weather will be between 4 PM and 11 PM. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed. Edited June 25, 2023 by snowlover2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Even though they didn't directly say it, now that they are mentioning strong tornadoes possible it makes you wonder if they might go moderate risk at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gerb131 Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 thoughts on a possible eastward expansion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 This afternoon is looking interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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