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June 5th-September 1st, 2023 | Severe Storm Sequence


Iceresistance

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5 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

That cell is still PDS warned.

Could have 4" hail too.

Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
721 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023

The National Weather Service in Cheyenne has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Western Scotts Bluff County in the Panhandle of Nebraska...

* Until 745 PM MDT.

* At 721 PM MDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado
  was located over Hubbard Hill, or 10 miles southwest of
  Scottsbluff, moving east at 15 mph.

  This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

  SOURCE...Public confirmed tornado.

  IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris
           may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
           homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
           businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete
           destruction is possible.

* The tornado will be near...
  Hubbard Hill around 730 PM MDT.

Other locations in the path of this tornadic thunderstorm include
Scottsbluff, Gering, Terrytown, Scotts Bluff National Monument,
Wildcat Hills Campground and Wildcat Hills State Recreation Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4171 10393 4188 10392 4195 10363 4170 10364
      4170 10386
TIME...MOT...LOC 0121Z 273DEG 12KT 4180 10386

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...4.00 IN

 

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TORNADO EMERGENCY!!!

Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
731 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR GERING & SCOTTSBLUFF...

The National Weather Service in Cheyenne has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Eastern Scotts Bluff County in the Panhandle of Nebraska...
  Northwestern Morrill County in the Panhandle of Nebraska...
  Southeastern Sioux County in the Panhandle of Nebraska...

* Until 800 PM MDT.

* At 730 PM MDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was
  observed over Scotts Bluff National Monument, or near Scottsbluff,
  moving northeast at 30 mph.

  TORNADO EMERGENCY for GERING & SCOTTSBLUFF. This is a PARTICULARLY
DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

  HAZARD...Deadly tornado.

  SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

  IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris
           may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
           homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
           businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete
           destruction is possible.

* The tornado will be near...
  Terrytown around 735 PM MDT.
  Scottsbluff and Gering around 740 PM MDT.
  Scottsbluff Airport around 745 PM MDT.
  Minatare and Lake Alice around 750 PM MDT.

Other locations in the path of this tornadic thunderstorm include
Lake Minatare Campground and Lake Minatare

 

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Did not expect to see a tornado emergency coming back from mowing the lawn, Brandon Copic says he believes the circulation should stay south of town so here's hoping.

South of Gering and Scottsbluff if I heard him right. 

Edited by Neoncyclone
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Quote
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
746 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023

NEC123-157-165-240200-
/O.CON.KCYS.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-230624T0200Z/
Scotts Bluff NE-Morrill NE-Sioux NE-
746 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR Gering and Scottsbluff!...

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT FOR EASTERN
SCOTTS BLUFF...NORTHWESTERN MORRILL AND SOUTHEASTERN SIOUX
COUNTIES...

At 745 PM MDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located
7 miles south of Gering, or near Scottsbluff, moving northeast at 25
mph.

TORNADO EMERGENCY for Gering and Scottsbluff!. This is a
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Deadly tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
         is possible.

The tornado will be near...
  Minatare around 750 PM MDT.

Other locations in the path of this tornadic thunderstorm include
Lake Minatare Campground and Lake Minatare.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous, and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid
windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle or outdoors, move to the
closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

If a tornado or other severe weather is spotted, report it to the
National Weather Service or your local nearest law enforcement agency
who will send your report. This act may save lives of others in the
path of dangerous weather.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4174 10366 4192 10378 4201 10359 4200 10342
      4190 10336 4181 10337
TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 245DEG 28KT 4188 10359

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC
MAX HAIL SIZE...4.00 IN

 

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7 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Reed Timmer's stream still has enough twilight to see the large tower and anvil and lightning, with the next cell near Scottsbluff which could have 2"-3" hail

Quote
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
905 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023

NEC013-123-157-165-240345-
/O.CON.KCYS.SV.W.0134.000000T0000Z-230624T0345Z/
Box Butte NE-Scotts Bluff NE-Morrill NE-Sioux NE-
905 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN BOX BUTTE...NORTHEASTERN SCOTTS BLUFF...NORTHWESTERN
MORRILL AND SOUTHEASTERN SIOUX COUNTIES...

At 904 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Lake Alice, or
near Scottsbluff, moving east at 30 mph.

THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR Scottsbluff.

HAZARD...Baseball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Law enforcement.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured.
         Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs,
         siding, and vehicles.

Locations impacted include...
Scottsbluff, Gering, Terrytown, Kilpatrick Lake, Lake Minatare
Campground, Scottsbluff Airport, Angora, Lake Minatare, Scotts Bluff
National Monument and Lake Alice.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for the Panhandle
of Nebraska.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy
structure and stay away from windows.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Cheyenne.

&&

LAT...LON 4181 10372 4197 10377 4222 10316 4187 10296
TIME...MOT...LOC 0304Z 255DEG 27KT 4195 10359

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

 

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  • Meteorologist

2nd time in 3 days a storm has popped the AMA 00z balloon. But geez, good thing that cap was just strong enough. Probably would've had more cells that looked like the CO/KS/OK Panhandle supercell.

LJu6iLw.gif

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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18 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

When the new day 2 comes out shortly, i wouldn't be surprised to see the slight risk expanded up into MI and an enhanced area added in.

Slight risk was expanded north to the IN/OH/MI borders but no enhanced yet.

Quote
 Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE MID MISSISSIPPI...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A severe threat will be likely across parts of the mid Mississippi,
   Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Sunday. Large hail, wind damage and
   perhaps a couple tornadoes will be possible.

   ...Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys...
   An upper-level trough will move eastward into the western Great
   Lakes region on Sunday, as a 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet noses into
   the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance
   southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front,
   surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F will contribute
   to corridor of strong instability by afternoon. In the early
   afternoon, convection is forecast to first initiate across eastern
   Illinois, far western Indiana and lower Michigan. From this
   convection, thunderstorms are expected to form and move
   east-southeastward across the Ohio Valley. MCS development will be
   possible, with a large convective cluster or line of storms
   affecting much of Kentucky, Tennessee and northeastern Arkansas.

   The exit region of the mid-level jet will overspread the Ohio Valley
   during the late afternoon, enhancing lift and contributing to strong
   deep-layer shear. NAM forecast soundings in the vicinity of
   Louisville, Kentucky in the late afternoon, beneath the nose of the
   mid-level jet, have MLCAPE peaking near 4000 J/kg. 0-6 km shear is
   forecast to be near 50 knots, with 0-3 km storm relative helicity
   generally near or above 300 m2/s2. This should support supercells
   capable of producing large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat.
   It appears that supercells with large hail will be most likely early
   in the event, but that the potential for severe multicell line
   segments with damaging wind gusts may increase later in the event. A
   lot will depend upon whether a linear MCS can become organized, and
   how quickly a cold pool can develop. There is also uncertainty
   concerning the exact track of a potential MCS, the timing of the
   upper-trough and distribution of instability. An area of higher
   wind-damage threat could be later added once these factors become
   more clear.

   Further west into northern Arkansas, isolated thunderstorms are
   expected to develop during the late afternoon. Although instability
   and deep-layer shear are forecast to be adequate for severe storms,
   warm temperatures aloft and more limited large-scale ascent may keep
   any severe threat marginal.

   ..Broyles.. 06/24/2023

 

day2otlk_0600.gif

day2probotlk_0600_torn.gif

day2probotlk_0600_hail.gif

day2probotlk_0600_wind.gif

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3 hours ago, NWOhioChaser said:

Oh so you’re saying there’s a chance of a storm here tomorrow? Cool! 

The convection allowing models make me believe that I could hear thunder and see lightning. A nearly impossible feat! Toledo averages nearly 4" of rain in June, but I haven't heard thunder in a season.

 

refcmp_uh001h.us_mw (1).png

Edited by Chinook
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ILN is going to have a live public Facebook chat at 3pm today for tomorrow's severe weather threat. Makes me more inclined to believe an enhanced is about to be added. Don't think they would do this for just a slight risk.

Edited by snowlover2
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Quote
  Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1239 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MIDDLE
   TENNESSEE...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST OHIO...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from the Ohio Valley and
   potentially southwestward into the Mid South and into Mississippi
   and Alabama.  Severe gusts resulting in wind damage and large to
   very large hail will be possible on Sunday.  A couple of tornadoes
   are possible in the Ohio Valley.

   ...OH Valley into the Mid South and MS/AL...
   A mid-level low/associated trough over the upper to mid MS Valley
   will move east-southeast into the central Great Lakes by early
   Monday morning.  A belt of strong 500-mb flow will move through the
   base of the trough over the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley and
   portions of the TN Valley.  Large model variability is resulting in
   considerable uncertainty for this forecast with ongoing
   showers/thunderstorms expected Sunday morning from potentially the
   southwestern Great Lakes southward into the Mid South.  With those
   caveats/concerns mentioned, a large reservoir of rich low-level
   moisture will reside from the lower MS Valley northward into the OH
   Valley in absence of any convective overturning during the morning. 
   More aggressive model solutions for destabilization show the
   development of a very unstable to extremely unstable airmass
   developing from AR eastward through the Mid South and northward into
   the OH Valley.  It seems likely some of this broad region will have
   a thunderstorm cluster with associated wind/hail risk deplete some
   of the potential instability.  However, areas located on the
   periphery of the potential thunderstorm clusters/MCSs near residual
   outflow or on the front, will be favored areas for additional
   thunderstorms and a severe risk.  It seems most probable that a
   concentrated area of wind-damage potential may reside over parts of
   the OH Valley southward into middle TN where the mid-level speed max
   is forecast to overspread the warm sector.  Have aggressively
   expanded 5 and 15-percent wind probabilities into the upper OH
   Valley, MS/AL and into AR to account for both spatial uncertainty
   and the depiction by the last 6 model runs of the deterministic
   ECMWF and the latest HREF ensemble sshow several linear clusters
   moving across these corridors.  By the mid evening, a gradual
   subsiding and confining of the severe risk is expected with the
   greatest risk perhaps shifting into parts of the lower MS Valley.

   ...Southeast WY...
   Strong heating amidst a weak upslope regime may foster a few
   thunderstorms during the afternoon over southeast WY near the
   Cheyenne Ridge.  Strong mid- to high-level westerly flow
   strengthening with height will favor some organization with the
   stronger updrafts.  An isolated risk for hail/wind may accompany the
   stronger cores for a few hours during the late afternoon/early
   evening before this activity subsides.

   ...Western ID and eastern OR...
   A mid-level low over the interior Pacific NW and strong heating will
   promote scattered thunderstorms developing during the day across the
   interior NW and northern Intermountain regions.  Very steep low to
   mid-level lapse rates and adequate moisture will probably result in
   around 500 J/kg MLCAPE.  Severe gusts with the stronger downdrafts
   may occur with the more robust convection during the late afternoon
   into the mid evening hours.

   ..Smith.. 06/24/2023

 

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