snowlover2 Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 That cell is still PDS warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 5 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: That cell is still PDS warned. Could have 4" hail too. Quote BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 721 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023 The National Weather Service in Cheyenne has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Western Scotts Bluff County in the Panhandle of Nebraska... * Until 745 PM MDT. * At 721 PM MDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located over Hubbard Hill, or 10 miles southwest of Scottsbluff, moving east at 15 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Public confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. * The tornado will be near... Hubbard Hill around 730 PM MDT. Other locations in the path of this tornadic thunderstorm include Scottsbluff, Gering, Terrytown, Scotts Bluff National Monument, Wildcat Hills Campground and Wildcat Hills State Recreation Area. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4171 10393 4188 10392 4195 10363 4170 10364 4170 10386 TIME...MOT...LOC 0121Z 273DEG 12KT 4180 10386 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE MAX HAIL SIZE...4.00 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 TORNADO EMERGENCY!!! Quote BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 731 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023 ...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR GERING & SCOTTSBLUFF... The National Weather Service in Cheyenne has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Eastern Scotts Bluff County in the Panhandle of Nebraska... Northwestern Morrill County in the Panhandle of Nebraska... Southeastern Sioux County in the Panhandle of Nebraska... * Until 800 PM MDT. * At 730 PM MDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was observed over Scotts Bluff National Monument, or near Scottsbluff, moving northeast at 30 mph. TORNADO EMERGENCY for GERING & SCOTTSBLUFF. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Deadly tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. * The tornado will be near... Terrytown around 735 PM MDT. Scottsbluff and Gering around 740 PM MDT. Scottsbluff Airport around 745 PM MDT. Minatare and Lake Alice around 750 PM MDT. Other locations in the path of this tornadic thunderstorm include Lake Minatare Campground and Lake Minatare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJKuo Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: TORNADO EMERGENCY!!! Wow! this is a significant hit on a decent size town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 (edited) Did not expect to see a tornado emergency coming back from mowing the lawn, Brandon Copic says he believes the circulation should stay south of town so here's hoping. South of Gering and Scottsbluff if I heard him right. Edited June 24, 2023 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 Hmm several people on Twitter are saying there is no tornado on the ground with the TOR-E cell. Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 746 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023 NEC123-157-165-240200- /O.CON.KCYS.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-230624T0200Z/ Scotts Bluff NE-Morrill NE-Sioux NE- 746 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023 ...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR Gering and Scottsbluff!... ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT FOR EASTERN SCOTTS BLUFF...NORTHWESTERN MORRILL AND SOUTHEASTERN SIOUX COUNTIES... At 745 PM MDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located 7 miles south of Gering, or near Scottsbluff, moving northeast at 25 mph. TORNADO EMERGENCY for Gering and Scottsbluff!. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Deadly tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. The tornado will be near... Minatare around 750 PM MDT. Other locations in the path of this tornadic thunderstorm include Lake Minatare Campground and Lake Minatare. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous, and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle or outdoors, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. If a tornado or other severe weather is spotted, report it to the National Weather Service or your local nearest law enforcement agency who will send your report. This act may save lives of others in the path of dangerous weather. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 4174 10366 4192 10378 4201 10359 4200 10342 4190 10336 4181 10337 TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 245DEG 28KT 4188 10359 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC MAX HAIL SIZE...4.00 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 (edited) Didn’t Elkhart have a tor come through there a few years ago? Edited June 24, 2023 by NWOhioChaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 I think this is it. I'm watching Brandon Copic (storm chaser) being broadcast by Reed Timmer's youtube. May have already been a complicated situation with multiple, perhaps, short lived tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 we have Reed Timmer back on his own youtube stream. He stopped to help a trucker within the last 2 hrs or something. Also watching Brandon Copic on his stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 (edited) only tornado warning now is a second cell that is back by the Wyoming state line! Edited June 24, 2023 by Chinook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 non-confirmed tornado warnings in Colorado, in the same area as the tornadoes (possibly Wednesday) Merino, Colorado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 Reed Timmer's stream still has enough twilight to see the large tower and anvil and lightning, with the next cell near Scottsbluff which could have 2"-3" hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 7 minutes ago, Chinook said: Reed Timmer's stream still has enough twilight to see the large tower and anvil and lightning, with the next cell near Scottsbluff which could have 2"-3" hail Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 905 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023 NEC013-123-157-165-240345- /O.CON.KCYS.SV.W.0134.000000T0000Z-230624T0345Z/ Box Butte NE-Scotts Bluff NE-Morrill NE-Sioux NE- 905 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM MDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN BOX BUTTE...NORTHEASTERN SCOTTS BLUFF...NORTHWESTERN MORRILL AND SOUTHEASTERN SIOUX COUNTIES... At 904 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Lake Alice, or near Scottsbluff, moving east at 30 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR Scottsbluff. HAZARD...Baseball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Law enforcement. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured. Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs, siding, and vehicles. Locations impacted include... Scottsbluff, Gering, Terrytown, Kilpatrick Lake, Lake Minatare Campground, Scottsbluff Airport, Angora, Lake Minatare, Scotts Bluff National Monument and Lake Alice. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for the Panhandle of Nebraska. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in Cheyenne. && LAT...LON 4181 10372 4197 10377 4222 10316 4187 10296 TIME...MOT...LOC 0304Z 255DEG 27KT 4195 10359 TORNADO...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 severe reports map is impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 24, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 24, 2023 (edited) 2nd time in 3 days a storm has popped the AMA 00z balloon. But geez, good thing that cap was just strong enough. Probably would've had more cells that looked like the CO/KS/OK Panhandle supercell. Edited June 24, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 When the new day 2 comes out shortly, i wouldn't be surprised to see the slight risk expanded up into MI and an enhanced area added in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 18 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: When the new day 2 comes out shortly, i wouldn't be surprised to see the slight risk expanded up into MI and an enhanced area added in. Slight risk was expanded north to the IN/OH/MI borders but no enhanced yet. Quote Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat will be likely across parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Sunday. Large hail, wind damage and perhaps a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... An upper-level trough will move eastward into the western Great Lakes region on Sunday, as a 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet noses into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F will contribute to corridor of strong instability by afternoon. In the early afternoon, convection is forecast to first initiate across eastern Illinois, far western Indiana and lower Michigan. From this convection, thunderstorms are expected to form and move east-southeastward across the Ohio Valley. MCS development will be possible, with a large convective cluster or line of storms affecting much of Kentucky, Tennessee and northeastern Arkansas. The exit region of the mid-level jet will overspread the Ohio Valley during the late afternoon, enhancing lift and contributing to strong deep-layer shear. NAM forecast soundings in the vicinity of Louisville, Kentucky in the late afternoon, beneath the nose of the mid-level jet, have MLCAPE peaking near 4000 J/kg. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be near 50 knots, with 0-3 km storm relative helicity generally near or above 300 m2/s2. This should support supercells capable of producing large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat. It appears that supercells with large hail will be most likely early in the event, but that the potential for severe multicell line segments with damaging wind gusts may increase later in the event. A lot will depend upon whether a linear MCS can become organized, and how quickly a cold pool can develop. There is also uncertainty concerning the exact track of a potential MCS, the timing of the upper-trough and distribution of instability. An area of higher wind-damage threat could be later added once these factors become more clear. Further west into northern Arkansas, isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late afternoon. Although instability and deep-layer shear are forecast to be adequate for severe storms, warm temperatures aloft and more limited large-scale ascent may keep any severe threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 06/24/2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 Oh so you’re saying there’s a chance of a storm here tomorrow? Cool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 (edited) 3 hours ago, NWOhioChaser said: Oh so you’re saying there’s a chance of a storm here tomorrow? Cool! The convection allowing models make me believe that I could hear thunder and see lightning. A nearly impossible feat! Toledo averages nearly 4" of rain in June, but I haven't heard thunder in a season. Edited June 24, 2023 by Chinook 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 Would be surprised if the slight risk isn't expanded more into MI on the next update here shortly. Bigger question is will they add an enhanced area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 (edited) ILN is going to have a live public Facebook chat at 3pm today for tomorrow's severe weather threat. Makes me more inclined to believe an enhanced is about to be added. Don't think they would do this for just a slight risk. Edited June 24, 2023 by snowlover2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 There it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 Quote Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MIDDLE TENNESSEE...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from the Ohio Valley and potentially southwestward into the Mid South and into Mississippi and Alabama. Severe gusts resulting in wind damage and large to very large hail will be possible on Sunday. A couple of tornadoes are possible in the Ohio Valley. ...OH Valley into the Mid South and MS/AL... A mid-level low/associated trough over the upper to mid MS Valley will move east-southeast into the central Great Lakes by early Monday morning. A belt of strong 500-mb flow will move through the base of the trough over the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley and portions of the TN Valley. Large model variability is resulting in considerable uncertainty for this forecast with ongoing showers/thunderstorms expected Sunday morning from potentially the southwestern Great Lakes southward into the Mid South. With those caveats/concerns mentioned, a large reservoir of rich low-level moisture will reside from the lower MS Valley northward into the OH Valley in absence of any convective overturning during the morning. More aggressive model solutions for destabilization show the development of a very unstable to extremely unstable airmass developing from AR eastward through the Mid South and northward into the OH Valley. It seems likely some of this broad region will have a thunderstorm cluster with associated wind/hail risk deplete some of the potential instability. However, areas located on the periphery of the potential thunderstorm clusters/MCSs near residual outflow or on the front, will be favored areas for additional thunderstorms and a severe risk. It seems most probable that a concentrated area of wind-damage potential may reside over parts of the OH Valley southward into middle TN where the mid-level speed max is forecast to overspread the warm sector. Have aggressively expanded 5 and 15-percent wind probabilities into the upper OH Valley, MS/AL and into AR to account for both spatial uncertainty and the depiction by the last 6 model runs of the deterministic ECMWF and the latest HREF ensemble sshow several linear clusters moving across these corridors. By the mid evening, a gradual subsiding and confining of the severe risk is expected with the greatest risk perhaps shifting into parts of the lower MS Valley. ...Southeast WY... Strong heating amidst a weak upslope regime may foster a few thunderstorms during the afternoon over southeast WY near the Cheyenne Ridge. Strong mid- to high-level westerly flow strengthening with height will favor some organization with the stronger updrafts. An isolated risk for hail/wind may accompany the stronger cores for a few hours during the late afternoon/early evening before this activity subsides. ...Western ID and eastern OR... A mid-level low over the interior Pacific NW and strong heating will promote scattered thunderstorms developing during the day across the interior NW and northern Intermountain regions. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates and adequate moisture will probably result in around 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Severe gusts with the stronger downdrafts may occur with the more robust convection during the late afternoon into the mid evening hours. ..Smith.. 06/24/2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 right on the edge of that slight risk but I like where I’m sitting for the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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