ElectricStorm Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 Extreme damage reported from a large wedge in Matador, TX. Reports of 1 fatality so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 Matador, TX has some very bad damage. this supercell in Texas is absolutely massive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 14 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: Matador, TX has some very bad damage. this supercell in Texas is absolutely massive! 100mph winds and softball sized hail. No thanks! Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1042 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023 TXC151-220400- /O.CON.KSJT.TO.W.0020.000000T0000Z-230622T0400Z/ Fisher TX- 1042 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR FISHER COUNTY... At 1041 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Rotan, moving south at 40 mph. This storm also has a history of producing over 100 mph winds and up to softball size hail. HAZARD...Tornado and softball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This dangerous storm will be near... Roby around 1055 PM CDT. Sylvester around 1100 PM CDT. Longworth around 1105 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Busby, Capitola and Us-180 Near The Fisher-Scurry County Line. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 22, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 22, 2023 (edited) Texas Panhandle got relatively lucky with the worst of it being baseball hail. Further south... not so much. Edited June 22, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted June 22, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 22, 2023 Some of that vehicle damage in Matador is insane. Cars and trucks twisted like pretzels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 22, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 22, 2023 (edited) In a day 1 and 2 slight risk with significant severe possible both days. Late spring/early summer madness continues. Edited June 22, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 Watching Sunday. Spc mentioned the Ohio Valley in their extended outlook 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 22, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 22, 2023 This was southeast of Amarillo earlier 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 24 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Watching Sunday. Spc mentioned the Ohio Valley in their extended outlook Temperatures should then quickly rebound and warm up into the weekend as warm air advection increases from the west. The warm air advection is driven by a developing low over the Plains, which will slowly move northeastward allowing the Rex Block to break down. This system will make its way towards Indiana by Sunday, allowing for shower and storm chances to return. There are a few questions that remain with this system, and how things play out as it passes through. One question is how any potential upstream convection on Saturday may evolve. If it were to develop into an MCS, it may progress towards Indiana on the back of a rather robust jet streak. Warm moist advection ahead of it, along with a potent low-level jet, may allow it to survive into the morning hours on Sunday. This would then lead to the next question, if this system were to survive into Indiana for Sunday...how would that affect convective development that afternoon? The system could end up stabilizing the atmosphere sufficiently to limit the convective threat later in the day. Should the MCS not develop, we`ll likely be left with a more pristine environment for afternoon convective development. Current guidance, while not in total agreement, shows enough shear for convective organization...so the potential for severe weather will need to be watched. A third question is timing, if the system passes through too fast or too slow, that will of course affect which locations are favored for subsequent convective development. Overall, a lot need to be watched and trends will be monitored closely. Beyond this weekend, guidance hints at ridging redeveloping over Texas with broad troughing remaining over the northeastern US. This would place Indiana within a region of northwesterly flow aloft. Additionally, southwesterly low-level flow may make a return during this time as well. This is in contrast to the recent pattern featuring northerly or northeasterly flow at the surface. Such a pattern would be more conducive to upstream convective systems propagating southeastward. This would be particularly true should a northwest to southeast instability gradient develop over the region. This would imply a southwest to northeast gradient in temperatures, which is reflected in the current forecast through the middle part of next week. Ensembles are in rather good agreement regarding this pattern shift. In fact, GEFS ensemble member spaghetti plots are not as messy as they would normally be...clearly showing a ridge over Texas with troughing over the northeastern US. The members only begin to rapidly diverge towards the end of the month, with any discernible signal disappearing by July 1st. ECMWF Ens likewise shows a similar pattern evolution through the end of the month. Overall, confidence in the broad synoptic scale pattern is greater than normal for this period. Confidence is low regarding potential convective evolution and MCS propagation, as these features depend on mesoscale forcing and factors that are not resolvable at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 (edited) Morning discussion from INDY On the periphery of weak upper level ridging, Saturday will be dry and warm across Central Indiana. This is not the case upstream, as a developing low pressure over the Great Plains and shortwave upper trough will trigger storms (and potentially an MCS) to develop out closer to Iowa. Locally, the development of this surface low will contribute to the breakdown of the past week`s block and will allow surface flow to veer to westerly and southerly. This, in turn, will enhance warm air advection over our forecast area, allowing temperatures to warm into the upper 80s/lower 90s on Saturday. Low level flow strengthens into Sunday, only enhancing this ongoing warm air and moisture advection and setting the stage for potential convective thunderstorm activity in Indiana. While this system is likely to give our area the best rain chances we have seen in a while, multiple questions remain up in the air regarding any severe weather potential on Sunday. The first of these questions relates to the upstream activity mentioned above; will it develop into an MCS and will this MCS make it all the way to Indiana? The presence of a seasonably potent 500mb jet streak nearby depicted in some guidance on Sunday would support this system sustaining itself. However, it will also have to overcome a loss of diurnal thermal instability, as it would approach the area overnight/early in the morning. The next question depends on the strength of any lingering activity; would it locally suppress the thermodynamic environment via latent heat processes and decrease instability for Sunday afternoon? Weaker or nonexistent Sunday morning storms would allow for greater potential for convective initiation across Indiana later in the day. Any storms that form on Sunday afternoon will exist in a favorable shear directional regime, and modeled soundings demonstrate the need to monitor severe weather approach if favorable thermodynamics are realized. More questions exist regarding the spatiotemporal placement of the driving shortwave trough; will the best forcing be displaced south or east of the area? While guidance generally agrees in the shift towards a more favorable synoptic pattern for convection (and rain!!), many of these questions will remain up in air until the system enters the range of higher-resolution modeling. Stay tuned to future forecast updates as this event approaches, as trends in the above questions will be watched in the coming days. Edited June 22, 2023 by StormfanaticInd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted June 22, 2023 Author Share Posted June 22, 2023 4 Confirmed dead in Matador 😞 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted June 22, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 22, 2023 Definitely some of the worst vehicle damage I have seen in a long time. I thought the Mississippi tornado could have been a low end EF-4 based on the wide spread tree damage, but I'm also not familiar with which trees there are weaker to winds. Matador has a lot more going for it for a violent tornado rating. The vehicle damage is at least on par with Rolling Fork and Mayfield. We don't have DIs for this kind of damage, but we can infer based on previous tornadoes on what likely occurred and use it to back up actual DIs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 Could be looking at a potentially bad situation today, south end of Denver right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: Could be looking at a potentially bad situation today, south end of Denver right now. PDS Tornado warning for south Denver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 Saturday and Sunday could be big days. Watching closely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 Severe thunderstorm watch is up for me now. Slight risk just to my west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 Weakening severe cell to my west hopefully it can get here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 ILN has a long write up concerning Sunday. Quote Midlevel ridging will /very briefly/ build into the region Saturday night into early Sunday morning ahead of the next system which will approach the OH Vly quickly from the W into the afternoon hours Sunday. Synoptically, a deepening low pressure center will track from the upper Midwest to the wrn Great Lakes during the daytime Sunday, with the OH Vly positioned in an area of increasing mid/upper level diffluence, with a seasonably potent jetstreak fcst to wrap around the srn periphery of the low center into the region by Sunday evening. This will provide some mid/upper level support to initiate (or possibly maintain) convection across the area as an increasingly-favorable thermodynamic environment advects in from the WSW. There are several items to discuss as it relates to the setup that should evolve Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Although there are still some timing and orientation differences to be worked out, the overlap of favorable thermodynamics (LL- and deep-layer instby) and kinematics (sufficient LL- and deep-layer shear profiles and a sharp S/W) suggest a concerning setup for strong/severe storms during this time period. Although the gradual increase in broader-scale lift/forcing will undoubtedly contribute to convective coverage/intensity as we progress into the late afternoon/evening, there are admittedly still some uncertainties in regards to early day activity/modulations to the environment that just are not well- depicted at this time range. There are several signals to suggest a well-formed MCS may originate in the central plains (IA/vicinity) and dive to the SE into the mid MS Rvr Vly and SW OH Vly into the predawn hours Sunday morning (but stay off to the SW of the ILN FA). This may have consequences (from a convective blowoff/debris standpoint) on rate and degree of destabilization efforts further E/NE into the ILN FA into Sunday afternoon/evening, especially as that will be the /source/ region of the air moving in locally. There are some uncertainties regarding whether that overturned environment from off to our W/SW will advect into the ILN FA or whether more robust/rapid LL destabilization can take place as early as mid afternoon. Either way, do expect that there will be substantial destabilization taking place by Sunday late afternoon/early evening pretty much area-wide with the concurrent advection in of higher LL theta-e air from the SW and the arrival of a more stout EML from the W by the evening. This should act to steepen the midlevel lapse rates and provide more deeper-layer instby (SB/ML CAPE near/exceeding 2000 J/kg), which, when combined with 35+ kts 0-6km shear, suggests an active Sunday afternoon/night could be in store for parts of the area. Given the signals in the data, including some of those mentioned here, feel confident enough to include the mention of strong/severe storms (with both strong/damaging straight- line winds and large hail) in the HWO area-wide, although there are admittedly a few uncertainties in the convective evolution/placement/location during this period. We will continue to monitor the evolution of the setup closely. The convective activity should wane very late Sunday evening into early Sunday night as the best overlap of forcing/instby get shunted to the E/SE. Quite a bit of wraparound moisture will pivot back in from the N during the daytime Monday, keeping SCT/numerous SHRA in the fcst into Monday evening. With this setup, expect that high temps will be substantially cooler Monday afternoon than will be the case Sunday. Kept NBM deterministic temps for now, but given the coverage of clouds and SHRA activity during the daytime, fcst highs may be further trimmed in subsequent fcst updates. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 23, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 23, 2023 (edited) Good thing nothing developed along the slowing outflow boundary this evening. Weak low-level instability but I don't wanna take chances. Edited June 23, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 Storm held together for the most part through here. Not severe but still a nice cell. Much better than the 80+mph winds from a few days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted June 23, 2023 Moderators Share Posted June 23, 2023 4 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: Saturday and Sunday could be big days. Watching closely we need something its been forever...last severe weather event here was the end of april 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 23, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 23, 2023 (edited) Went to check Dalhart ASOS because with all this moisture they should be getting some good rain. Ongoing 66 mph wind gusts Cause is likely collapsing storms Edited June 23, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 Kinda surprised the slight isn't farther north. NAM appears to have most of the storms across IN/OH. They do say an upgrade to enhanced is very possible. Maybe a rare day 3 update this afternoon/evening? Quote Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat will be likely across parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Sunday. Large hail, wind damage and perhaps a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central states on Sunday, as a 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet translates eastward across the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a low will move into the western Great Lakes as a cold front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s F will contribute to a corridor of moderate to strong instability by early afternoon from western Tennessee into central and northern Kentucky. During the afternoon, convection is forecast to first initiate on the northern edge of the stronger instability, with storms moving eastward across the Ohio Valley during the mid to late afternoon. Convective coverage should continue expanding across the region during the early evening, with a band of storms moving east-southeastward into the central Appalachians, and southeastward into the Tennessee Valley. MCS development will be possible across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The mid-level jet will move into the Ohio Valley during the afternoon, enhancing large-scale ascent and creating moderate deep-layer shear. NAM forecast soundings near Cincinnati during the late afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 45 knot range with some directional shear present in the low levels. In addition, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. This combined with mid-level lapse rates near 7 C/km should be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Wind damage will also possible with supercells and the more intense line segments. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 300 to 350 m2/s2 range, suggesting that a tornado threat may also develop. The severe threat could be upgraded to Enhanced Risk in later outlooks, if model runs continue to show a greater coverage of severe threat Sunday afternoon and evening. Further to the west, a severe threat will also be possible in parts of the Ozarks Sunday afternoon. Although a potential will exist for isolated large hail and wind damage, weaker large-scale ascent and warm temperatures in the mid-levels should keep convective coverage more isolated. ..Broyles.. 06/23/2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 ILN latest thoughts. Quote .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A deepening low pressure system will be moving east across the upper midwest on Saturday night ahead of a well defined upper level PV anomaly for late June. Locally over the Ohio Valley, winds should shift to the south with the deepening low in the Upper Midwest overnight allowing moisture to start gradually increasing. Forecast lows are in middle 60s. The forecast gets more interesting on Sunday due to the possibility of thunderstorms that could become strong to severe during the afternoon. The synoptic setup features the previously mentioned deep low (by late June standards) progressing eastward across Upper Midwest and Great Lakes ahead of a strong, southeast-diving, PV anomaly. A substantial push of instability (1500-2000+ J/kg) is at least moderately likely to occur across the Ohio Valley during the day due to a surge of theta-e air and an EML advecting in from the southwest. Strong deep layer shear (>40 knots) should be present along with veered low level hodographs ahead of an approaching trough axis which may back surface winds further. By late afternoon, the trough axis is expected to pivot through the area along with the upper-level PV anomaly which should act as a focus for possible storm initiation in the potentially potent kinematic and thermodynamic environment south of the low. If no convection occurs early on Sunday (none is expected at this time) or the forecast does not change, all modes of severe weather may be possible on Sunday afternoon with boundary-parallel deep shear appearing likely. CAMs should help resolve finer scale details in the coming 24-48 hours. For now, Sunday afternoon will need to be watched as highlighted by the HWO and SPC outlooks. Forecast highs reach into the middle to upper 80s. The chance for thunderstorms decreases quickly Sunday night when the aforementioned trough axis moves east before increasing again on Monday into Tuesday when the actual cold front moves through. Temperatures drop below average behind the front by midweek and dry weather returns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted June 23, 2023 Share Posted June 23, 2023 Nothing too heavy here. Just glad to be getting some rain showers this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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