Neoncyclone Posted June 19, 2023 Share Posted June 19, 2023 (edited) Just now, Ingyball said: Pretty sure our lone tornado producing supercell had 3 at once lol. The old meso occluded but hung around for awhile, the main meso had already taken over and was the largest of the 9 tornadoes that evening, and then a new meso had already formed and was producing a tornado lol. Was the strangest thing. absolutely insane loop for the last hour. I wish on radar omega I was able to make gifs, they offer long radar loops but no gif unfortunately. Edited June 19, 2023 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 19, 2023 Share Posted June 19, 2023 Felt more like an Oklahoma type supercell and tornado family, definitely strange to see progression like that in southern MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 19, 2023 Share Posted June 19, 2023 Wouldn't be surprised if any one of these storms in this cluster produced again, that storm to the NW is starting to look pretty organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 19, 2023 Share Posted June 19, 2023 Phew, not sure if anyone posted the 00z JAN sounding earlier or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWsnowhio Posted June 19, 2023 Share Posted June 19, 2023 (edited) Hoping this is the right place to share this. An excellent analysis by a local met describing how northern Ohio went from virtually no risk to 9 tornadoes (including three EF2s) in a matter of hours on June 15. Great break down of the unique factors that made it happen, including lake boundaries, convergence, meso lows, rapid intensification, right turning supercells, etc. https://www.13abc.com/2023/06/19/how-marginal-severe-threat-ended-up-tying-tornado-record/?fbclid=IwAR2qcH6Fokcl4198U5UMu52Z9OkmRMvPl0B2OuYVR8KCoonJBypfrPd3bcw_aem_th_AU-OVBg-VGiU_rmnbDXVCg0HKpQfB5tkPa5VNq3Cyc4ShyDOZpBwsW5BC2sNOfy9w9o&mibextid=Zxz2cZ#lj2sqxgvuk274ogtkrj Edited June 19, 2023 by NWsnowhio 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted June 19, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 19, 2023 From the building damage I have seen so far it would lead me to think last night's tornado was an EF-3 ignoring shoddy construction. However, the tree damage is far closer to what I have seen in EF-4s so I think this was likely a violent tornado. Insane for June in the Deep South. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 19, 2023 Share Posted June 19, 2023 Man Louin got hit hard, mostly mobile homes in the area it tracked through. Based on the way trees are snapped in some of these drone shots i'd say High-end EF-3 could go for LE EF-4 but with mostly mobile homes being hit, EF-3 is a safe bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 19, 2023 Share Posted June 19, 2023 1 minute ago, Ingyball said: From the building damage I have seen so far it would lead me to think last night's tornado was an EF-3 ignoring shoddy construction. However, the tree damage is far closer to what I have seen in EF-4s so I think this was likely a violent tornado. Insane for June in the Deep South. Love that we made almost the same post at the same time lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted June 19, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 19, 2023 The tree damage is very reminiscent of hurricane Michael (similar type of trees) which was a cat-5. That's why I'd personally lean towards an EF-4 but every surveyor has slightly different opinions when it comes to trees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 19, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 19, 2023 (edited) Both NAM products have some clown parameters for Wednesday around here but this is still 2.5 days out. Both are showing 5000-6500 sbcape with 40-50 kts effective shear. Both are showing mid-70 dew points which is very rare around here, so that and the instability shown is in question. Still time for them to relax. Both of the below soundings are for a county east of Amarillo. NAM 3km NAM Edited June 19, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 19, 2023 Share Posted June 19, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Ingyball said: The tree damage is very reminiscent of hurricane Michael (similar type of trees) which was a cat-5. That's why I'd personally lean towards an EF-4 but every surveyor has slightly different opinions when it comes to trees. Yeah most tornadoes that i've seen with trees snapped at or just above the base like that tend to get an EF-4+ rating, i'm sure a ton of things are taken into consideration such as type of trees affected, healthiness of tree population prior to the event, etc. Edited June 19, 2023 by Neoncyclone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 20, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 20, 2023 Day 2 slight risk here now. >4000 J/kg SBCAPE/40-50 kts effective shear should make some interesting storms if they develop... which it appears it's trending that way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 21, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 21, 2023 (edited) HRRR sounding, which is probably too dry, an hour before convection develops in the northeastern Texas Panhandle. You know it's bad when the model that has the lowest dew point is still showing 5000 sbcape. Edited June 21, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted June 21, 2023 Author Share Posted June 21, 2023 On 6/19/2023 at 10:59 AM, Ingyball said: The tree damage is very reminiscent of hurricane Michael (similar type of trees) which was a cat-5. That's why I'd personally lean towards an EF-4 but every surveyor has slightly different opinions when it comes to trees. It was rated an EF-3, these are softwood Pine trees. There were also Homes that were consistent with EF-3 damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 21, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 21, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 21, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 21, 2023 (edited) Can't say I'm surprised. And Perryton is in a 5% tor/30% hatched hail... again Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHEAST WYOMING...AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...AND FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Intense severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening over parts of the central and southern Plains, where severe gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. ...TX/OK... Morning water vapor imagery shows a large upper trough over the western states, with moderately strong southwesterly mid-level winds across much of the central and southern High Plains. At the surface, an extremely moist and potentially unstable air mass (dewpoints in the mid 70s) is present from the eastern TX Panhandle eastward into western OK, and extending southeastward into central TX. Full heating will lead to afternoon MLCAPE values of 5000-6000 J/kg and minimal cap. Large scale forcing is weak, but circulations along the surface dryline will lead to rapidly thunderstorm development from extreme southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. These storms are likely to be supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. These storms are likely to slowly congeal into one or more bowing complexes by mid evening, tracking southeastward into northwest and central TX. Several morning CAM solutions suggest the potential for a corridor of significant wind damage if this scenario unfolds. Edited June 21, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 21, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 21, 2023 (edited) Already ridiculously unstable in the eastern Texas Panhandle. 11 AM Mesoanalysis says there's 6000 SBCAPE/4500 MLCAPE Edited June 21, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 Giving on the summer storm season here in Indiana. It seems like it's been years since we had a good storm season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 Big time hail probs on that new severe thunderstorm watch. 95/80 yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 21, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 21, 2023 (edited) Looking east across the dryline into the extremely unstable airmass. Starting to get some cumulus Dont mind the bug marks on the wind shield. Moths invaded our area in May Edited June 21, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 90 degrees with dew point of 75 degrees in the TX Panhandle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 21, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 21, 2023 Here we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 21, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 21, 2023 (edited) Unreal quick the clouds are bubbling up. Haven’t seen something like this in a long time. This is the storm popping near White Deer Edited June 21, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 Holy cow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 PDS warning in TX now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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