ElectricStorm Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 On a small trip to S MO for a few days. And now I'm in a 10 hatched... A lot of morning convection though so I'm skeptical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 (edited) This new storm development later in the day should be existing in an area of high parameters- CAPE, storm-relative helicity, shear, strong parameters for tornadoes. This is what you get when you put on the closed captioning on a youtube video about severe weather (Convective Chronicles) Stormwater Publicity Storm related Felcity Low-level Holograph also (not shown) joules per kilogram of cake Edited August 9, 2023 by Chinook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted August 9, 2023 Author Share Posted August 9, 2023 43 minutes ago, Chinook said: This new storm development later in the day should be existing in an area of high parameters- CAPE, storm-relative helicity, shear, strong parameters for tornadoes. This is what you get when you put on the closed captioning on a youtube video about severe weather (Convective Chronicles) Stormwater Publicity Storm related Felcity Low-level Holograph also (not shown) joules per kilogram of cake Cake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 10% hatched for tornadoes has been introduced, however it will be an all-hazards event. Pretty high-end for August, 2023 has been crazy. Quote SPC AC 091641 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OZARKS/MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of significant severe thunderstorms with tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are possible from the Ozarks to the Tennessee Valley this afternoon into tonight. ...Ozarks/Mid-South/Tennessee Valley... Today's severe-weather scenario remains rather complex, largely owing to persistent regenerative precipitation through midday across the Ozarks southwestward into eastern Oklahoma. Short-term guidance appears to be reflecting typical biases/tendencies regarding later-day destabilization, with the 12z NAM likely too aggressive in destabilization (especially with northward extent), with recent RAP runs much more muted buoyancy-wise and southward focused. Regardless of some uncertainties as far as thermodynamic details and meso-beta spatial preferred severe corridors, rather active severe-weather potential still appears likely across the region later today into tonight, especially in deference to seasonally strong wind fields. Initially, ongoing convection across the Mid-South, in vicinity of far eastern Arkansas and western Tennessee at late morning, may intensify and gradually become surface-based this afternoon as it progresses generally eastward across the Tennessee Valley, especially on the southwest flank of these storms in proximity to the warm front. A favorable wind profile, increasing low-level moisture, and the eastern edge of steeper lapse rates aloft (reference 12z observed soundings from Little Rock and Jackson) will support some supercells capable of large hail, along with some tornado potential. Damaging winds will also be possible as activity congeals into clusters across the Tennessee Valley through the afternoon. For additional short-term details (through early afternoon), see Mesoscale Discussion 1914. After a relatively short convective lull (a few hours at most), a secondary round of severe thunderstorms is expected to initiate near/ahead of the surface cold front/inverted trough across parts of central to southern Missouri into eastern Oklahoma during the late afternoon, with outflow/meso-beta zones of differential heating influential as well. As related to the previously discussed thermodynamic uncertainties, the northward-extent (namely across Missouri) of the more intense/higher-coverage severe storms will be highly dependent upon relatively quick/substantive clearing this afternoon. Deep-layer shear vectors will be at least semi-orthogonal to the initiating front and should support initially discrete supercells amid 45-60 kt effective bulk shear. Strengthening low-level southwesterlies during the evening will further enlarge hodograph curvature across southern Missouri and northern Arkansas. This could foster potential for a couple strong tornadoes, but some of this depends on the evolution of the low-level thermodynamic fields in the wake of early day convection. Where storms intensify/mature, upscale growth is likely this evening as low to mid-level flow fields strengthen ahead of the shortwave trough tracking towards the middle Mississippi Valley. This should result in an MCS tracking southeast along the baroclinic zone trailing northwest in the wake of the early-day storms. The spatial extent and amplitude of severe wind gusts will be modulated by cold pools from prior convection and background nocturnal stabilization to some degree. But given 65-80 kt rear-inflow low-level winds depicted in some guidance, there is conditional potential for a more widespread damaging wind threat with embedded significant severe surface gusts and QLCS tornadoes amid bowing structures/mesovortices. ...Upper Midwest from eastern Dakotas to northern Michigan... Thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase by late afternoon along a southward sagging front across a broad west-to-east expanse, likely in a very isolated manner across the Dakotas with a bit more of a concentration (scattered) across eastern Minnesota into northwest/north-central Wisconsin, and possibly northern Michigan. These storms will mature in an environment with only modest buoyancy (MLCAPE between 500-1000 J/kg), but effective shear values between 30-35 kt. Given storm motions and deep-layer shear vectors largely off the front, discrete to semi-discrete storms are probable. Isolated instances of severe hail and wind are possible, mainly late this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 08/09/2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 Also the most recent HRRR run is catching onto a discrete supercell in NW AR, and if it verifies, we're in for a long evening/night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 Still thick clouds here and with the amount of morning convection I'm still a bit skeptical about the tor threat. Should be some nasty cells though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 (edited) 5 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said: Still thick clouds here and with the amount of morning convection I'm still a bit skeptical about the tor threat. Should be some nasty cells though I would normally be a bit skeptical too, but when there's convection over a rising effective warm-front it seems to take a lot less time to destabilize, going to be an interesting and complex day from a forecasting perspective. If anything, I would shift the tornado threat a bit south, I still think S MO could see a tornado or two but N AR would definitely be my target, especially if a discrete storm or two can form. Edited August 9, 2023 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 Clearing up now. Starting to get more concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 Some good heavy storms around me now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 (edited) Wow, 19z HRRR shows discrete supercells as the main mode through much of N AR and more conditionally in S MO. Really hoping this isn't what we see in the coming hours. Edited August 9, 2023 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 There are some new storms right at I-44 and close to Springfield MO. There is a tornado watch for the general area now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted August 9, 2023 Share Posted August 9, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 (edited) Phew, it's supercell galore in Alabama, luckily most of the rotations looks relatively weak right now. If I had to bet on any of them to have a chance, it'd be the two supercells just north-west of Birmingham. Mesoanalysis shows that there should be some tornado potential with these storms. Edited August 10, 2023 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 (edited) Luckily convective initiation failed further SW near west-central AR Edited August 10, 2023 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 Looks like the morning convection ended up winning out and preventing the second round from really ramping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, ElectricStorm said: Looks like the morning convection ended up winning out and preventing the second round from really ramping up. Could've been a really nasty day, luckily storms failed to convect further south in AR where the atmosphere was absolutely primed to go. The warm-front pretty much set up over S MO, that also helped as if it had lifted north a bit more the morning convection might not have mattered. Edited August 10, 2023 by Neoncyclone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted August 10, 2023 Share Posted August 10, 2023 August is going crazy lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted August 11, 2023 Share Posted August 11, 2023 Updated day 2 keeps the slight risk for Ohio to the NE but mentions enhanced area could be needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 11, 2023 Share Posted August 11, 2023 (edited) Dozens of hail reports in Minneapolis when the enhanced risk is currently Kansas City (which has yet to really activate.) Edited August 11, 2023 by Chinook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gerb131 Posted August 12, 2023 Share Posted August 12, 2023 feeling optimistic today in Eastern Ahia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btbucks Posted August 12, 2023 Share Posted August 12, 2023 Tornado warning for North Central Ahia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crowbar Posted August 12, 2023 Share Posted August 12, 2023 (edited) Tornado watch issued - basically Delaware County north and NE Edited August 12, 2023 by Crowbar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted August 12, 2023 Share Posted August 12, 2023 Really sunny here now. Should destabilize nicely. Have to see how things develop today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted August 12, 2023 Admin Share Posted August 12, 2023 Confirmed tornado with that warning near Marion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 12, 2023 Share Posted August 12, 2023 There was a confirmed tornado in Kenton Ohio, and possible large hail at Castalia, Parkertown Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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