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June 5th-September 1st, 2023 | Severe Storm Sequence


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2 hours ago, Crowbar said:

Heading to expect up to 70 MPH winds.  Getting dark here on the west side of Alum Creek

I was at Alum Creek Campgrounds with my daughter and some friends until I saw that tornado warning.  We bolted and watched from home (live over by Glenn Ross).  
 

Potent storm with a nice wind punch and lightning.  

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As for me yesterday, the storms looked like they were going to wimp out around Toledo but kind of came together for some downpours and I believe 58-59mph (51kt) wind at KTDZ which is by Walbridge. I didn't really even check for a shelf cloud as I assumed the clouds weren't going to be too interesting. There was some downpours and lightning.  What was interesting to me? I was looking at Radarscope on my computer and I noticed the lightning bolt symbols were just north of the north edge of the rainfall. So, not quite "lightning from a blue sky" but a bit out of the ordinary. Severe weather was limited to: Wind damage report at Stony Ridge/Perrysburg, 1.25" hail at Oak Harbor, wind damage at Catawba Point. My place may have gotten 0.25" to 0.35". Obviously the squall line that got going in Detroit, and continued to Canada and Cleveland, PA, and NY was much more substantial. The enhanced risk lived up to expectations, and more! As many severe were in Michigan, perhaps exceeding the enhanced outlook, and the wind damage in NY and PA went east of the enhanced outlook.

 

yesterday (1).gif

Edited by Chinook
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3 hours ago, Chinook said:

As for me yesterday, the storms looked like they were going to wimp out around Toledo but kind of came together for some downpours and I believe 58-59mph (51kt) wind at KTDZ which is by Walbridge. I didn't really even check for a shelf cloud as I assumed the clouds weren't going to be too interesting. There was some downpours and lightning.  What was interesting to me? I was looking at Radarscope on my computer and I noticed the lightning bolt symbols were just north of the north edge of the rainfall. So, not quite "lightning from a blue sky" but a bit out of the ordinary. Severe weather was limited to: Wind damage report at Stony Ridge/Perrysburg, 1.25" hail at Oak Harbor, wind damage at Catawba Point. My place may have gotten 0.25" to 0.35". Obviously the squall line that got going in Detroit, and continued to Canada and Cleveland, PA, and NY was much more substantial. The enhanced risk lived up to expectations, and more! As many severe were in Michigan, perhaps exceeding the enhanced outlook, and the wind damage in NY and PA went east of the enhanced outlook.

 

yesterday (1).gif

wow its sure been a summer of significant wind damage reports so far

Edited by Central Illinois
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Late July and we're still seeing discrete supercells producing hail >2" in the Plains. I saw on Twitter sometime over the past few days that this July has already preliminarily exceeded the record for most >=2" hail reports for any July on record.

Tennis ball hail reported with this eastern supercell here in northern Kansas.

image.thumb.png.42cc5b2516dfe6aa99623be75de45f75.png

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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Marginal risk added on the updated day 2 for the SE IN/SW OH/ KY areas. I noticed some of the CAMS showing storms popping up around here tomorrow late afternoon/evening.

Quote
  Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1229 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
   MIDWEST...MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY...AND NORTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday across parts of
   the Midwest, mid/upper Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, and
   Northeast.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper ridge will remain anchored over the southern/central
   Rockies on Monday, as a mid/upper-level cyclone and attendant trough
   move into the Pacific Northwest, and a broad upper trough remains
   over much of the eastern CONUS. At the surface, a remnant boundary
   will be draped from somewhere near the Gulf Coast into the Mid
   Atlantic. A weak surface low may develop over the central Plains,
   while another weak surface low/trough will move eastward across the
   OH Valley vicinity. 

   ...Northeast...
   A shortwave mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the
   lower Great Lakes toward northern New England on Monday. Modest
   low-level moisture and diurnal heating will support MLCAPE of
   750-1500 by late morning into the afternoon, and scattered
   thunderstorm development is expected from central PA into parts of
   NY/VT, immediately in advance of the shortwave. Southwesterly
   midlevel flow associated with the upper trough will support
   effective shear generally in the 25-35 kt range, sufficient for a
   few modestly organized cells/clusters capable of locally damaging
   wind and possibly some hail. 

   ...OH Valley and vicinity...
   Most guidance suggests a weak surface low/trough will move slowly
   eastward across parts of the OH Valley on Monday. This may aid in
   diurnal thunderstorm development within an environment characterized
   by moderate to strong buoyancy (MLCAPE 1500-3000 J/kg). Storm
   coverage and location remain rather uncertain, but effective shear
   of 20-30 kt within a weak northwesterly flow regime could support a
   few stronger multicells and clusters capable of producing hail and
   locally damaging wind. 

   ...Mid/upper MS Valley and Midwest...
   A low-predictability northwest-flow regime will remain in place from
   parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and mid/upper
   MS Valley on Monday. The details of storm development, coverage, and
   timing remain uncertain, but the environment will be conditionally
   favorable for supercells and organized clusters wherever notable
   diurnal destabilization can occur. 

   Morning convection may be ongoing Monday morning across parts of
   eastern NE/KS into western IA/MS, in association with a
   southwesterly low-level jet. A localized severe hail/wind threat
   cannot be ruled out with the stronger morning storms. Outflow and
   potential MCV development related to morning convection may support
   redevelopment farther south toward the Ozarks Monday
   afternoon/evening, with some continued potential for isolated severe
   hail/wind with the strongest storms. 

   Diurnal development will also be possible farther north into parts
   of MN/WI, within a weak but persistent low-level warm advection
   regime. If storms can mature in this area, isolated southeast-moving
   supercells will be possible. Nocturnal convection may develop late
   Monday night as the low-level jet increases, potentially posing an
   isolated severe risk into parts of IA/MO. 

   ...Northern UT into the northern Rockies...
   High-based convection is expected Monday afternoon/evening in
   association with a shortwave trough moving around the periphery of
   the upper ridge. Localized severe gusts will be possible from
   northern UT into parts of the northern Rockies, though with limited
   instability, storm intensity and organization remains uncertain at
   this time. Severe-wind probabilities may eventually be needed if
   confidence increases in more organized storm development.

   ..Dean.. 07/23/2023

 

day2otlk_1730.gif

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5 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Cell south of Richmond IN has possible ping pong hail now.

We just got pounded by it. Easily quarter sized mixed in. Hailed for probably 10 straight minutes. 

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Mean cell in SE IN with possible 2" hail.

Quote
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
609 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2023

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Western Franklin County in southeastern Indiana...
  Northeastern Ripley County in southeastern Indiana...
  Northwestern Dearborn County in southeastern Indiana...

* Until 700 PM EDT.

* At 609 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Oldenburg,
  moving southeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Two inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail
           damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect
           wind damage to trees and power lines.

* Locations impacted include...
  Batesville, Oldenburg, Lake Santee, Sunman, Laurel, Huntersville,
  Hamburg, Ballstown, Penntown, Weisburg, Interstate 74 at State
  Route 101, Peppertown, Lawrenceville and Buena Vista.

This includes I-74 in Indiana between mile markers 145 and 159.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and
submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3927 8530 3944 8530 3950 8519 3931 8504
      3919 8501 3916 8529 3925 8533
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 326DEG 13KT 3939 8524

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

 

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