Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 30, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 30, 2023 (edited) Well well well Edited May 30, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted May 30, 2023 Share Posted May 30, 2023 6 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Well well well Ooooofff!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 30, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 30, 2023 Already strongly unstable here but I'd imagine it will either decrease or plateau as mixing eats away at low-level moisture. Should end up with at least decent instability and all that mixing should make it easy to produce strong to severe gusts once convection gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 30, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 30, 2023 Didn't take long to get back into daily severe thunderstorm chances Day 2 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN CO/NM...WESTERN KS...WEST TX...AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and strong gusts are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening across the central and southern High Plains vicinity. ...Synopsis... An upper-level cyclone initially over southern CA is forecast to move slowly eastward on Wednesday. Farther east, a weak mid/upper-level trough will persist over the Gulf of Mexico, while an upper ridge will remain over parts of the Northeast. A broad surface cyclone will move little over the eastern Great Basin, while a surface ridge remains in place over much of the eastern CONUS. Some deepening of a lee cyclone is possible across the northern High Plains Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. ...Parts of the central/southern High Plains... Another day of active convection is expected across parts of the central/southern High Plains on Wednesday. The initial severe threat may be focused somewhat farther west compared to D1/Tuesday, with low-level southeasterly flow and the potential influence of outflow from Tuesday convection helping to increase low-level moisture closer to the higher terrain. Diurnal heating and embedded vorticity maxima in advance of the upper cyclone over the Southwest will support widely scattered afternoon thunderstorm development across terrain-favored regions, and also potentially farther east into parts of the TX/OK Panhandles and west TX. Deep-layer flow will again be rather modest across the region, but favorably veering wind profiles will support effective shear of 25-35 kt (slightly stronger with southward extent), sufficient for some storm organization, including the potential for a few supercells. Moderate to strong instability will support some hail potential with the strongest semi-discrete storms. With time, outflow mergers may result in an increasing threat for severe gusts, especially if stronger heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates can occur downstream of initial storm development during the afternoon. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially if any supercells can persist into the evening, when some increase in low-level shear/SRH is expected. Day 3 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms producing hail and strong gusts are possible across portions of the southern High Plains on Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Southern High Plains vicinity... A series of vorticity maxima will migrate across the southern High Plains amid 40-50 kt southwesterly flow in the midlevels. An upper closed low and attendant shortwave trough over the Four Corners vicinity will weaken through the period before another shortwave trough develops east across northwest Mexico after 00z. Large-scale ascent may be somewhat muted compared to Days 1-2/Tue-Wed as the region sits between the influence of the departing and weakening system from the Day 2 period, and the shortwave trough over northwest Mexico. However, 4-6 km flow will be stronger, resulting in more favorable vertical shear, with effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt forecast. Mid 50s to low 60s F boundary-layer dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Generally, this thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space would support severe storms. However, concerns over potential morning convection/cloud cover, and weak forcing for ascent limiting storm coverage, preclude higher severe probabilities at this time. While the extent of severe potential is somewhat conditional, it seems reasonable that at least a few strong to severe storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts will be possible, warranting a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 30, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 30, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 30, 2023 Share Posted May 30, 2023 Confirmed tornado NE of Lamar CO. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Pueblo CO 406 PM MDT Tue May 30 2023 COC099-302215- /O.CON.KPUB.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-230530T2215Z/ Prowers CO- 406 PM MDT Tue May 30 2023 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM MDT FOR NORTHWESTERN PROWERS COUNTY... At 406 PM MDT, a confirmed tornado was located 7 miles northeast of Lamar, moving northeast at 15 mph. HAZARD...TORNADO and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Law enforcement confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Expect damage to mobile homes, roofs, and vehicles. This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Prowers County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 30, 2023 Share Posted May 30, 2023 New tornado warning still confirmed. Quote BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Pueblo CO 412 PM MDT Tue May 30 2023 The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Prowers County in southeastern Colorado... Southeastern Kiowa County in southeastern Colorado... * Until 445 PM MDT. * At 412 PM MDT, a confirmed tornado was located 9 miles southeast of Queens Reservoir, or 10 miles northeast of Lamar, moving north at 20 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Law enforcement confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Expect damage to mobile homes, roofs, and vehicles. * Locations impacted include... Chivington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 This evening, there have been yet more isolated storms in Colorado, and again near Denver. Also, a storm near Tucumcari, NM. That's like 5 severe storms in the past week or two for just Tucumcari. The cap broke near Goodland KS and the storms have been mainly disorganized. They are not exactly as the short term models predicted a few hours before (as in, the 18z HRRR). It's a little interesting, but yet so sad to the see the blocking pattern has reduced the shear and also reduced rainfall to non-existence in the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 31, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 31, 2023 6 hours ago, Chinook said: This evening, there have been yet more isolated storms in Colorado, and again near Denver. Also, a storm near Tucumcari, NM. That's like 5 severe storms in the past week or two for just Tucumcari. The cap broke near Goodland KS and the storms have been mainly disorganized. They are not exactly as the short term models predicted a few hours before (as in, the 18z HRRR). It's a little interesting, but yet so sad to the see the blocking pattern has reduced the shear and also reduced rainfall to non-existence in the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 31, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 31, 2023 Storms are exploding in the TX Panhandle behind the MCS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 31, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 31, 2023 Can't imagine overperforming storms at 3:30am will help severe chances this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 31, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 31, 2023 (edited) Nothing better than waking up to an elevated thunderstorm (severe btw) producing a lightning strike 0.3 miles away Edited May 31, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 3 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Nothing better than waking up to a an elevated thunderstorm (severe btw) producing a lightning strike 0.3 miles away BOOM! I had one within a half mile on Memorial Day (Monday). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 31, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 31, 2023 (edited) Moderate risk for excessive rainfall today for the western half of the Texas panhandle. Not ideal with the recent Hereford flood and ongoing Canadian River flooding. Not to mention 15% hatched wind today. Edited May 31, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 31, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 31, 2023 (edited) 18z HRRR initializes well but then you get to hour 1 and dew points unrealistically drop off across region. In reality... dew points in the slight risk area from 18z to 19z have either not changed or increased by 1-3 degrees. That means HRRR's dew points are 2-5 degrees too low by hour 1. That could be a big deal for instability Edited May 31, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 31, 2023 Share Posted May 31, 2023 (edited) Yes there were 5 different days in which severe storms were close to Tucumcari. This is the rest of the reports from ABQ AMA LUB MAF EPZ in the last 8 days since May 23. Note: Lubbock TX had 5.29" of precipitation from May 1st-30th. Edited June 1, 2023 by Chinook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 1, 2023 Share Posted June 1, 2023 (edited) 268 days since any tornado warning near Cleveland. This would mean the last tornado warning was on approximately September 5th, depending on exactly how this counts the days. Edited June 1, 2023 by Chinook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted June 1, 2023 Author Share Posted June 1, 2023 Second half of May has been a snooze-fest here in terms of severe weather. Had some nice non-severe storms a couple days ago but that's about it. Haven't even had a marginal since May 13. For Oklahoma, so far we are sitting at just 10 tornadoes for the month of May, which is the lowest since 2014 which only had 4 (2014 as a whole was one of the least active tornado years ever for Oklahoma). All but one of the tornadoes this month were from the May 11 event, with the other one on May 12. Interestingly enough, February produced more tornadoes this year in Oklahoma than May did, which is wild. Overall we're sitting at 48 tornadoes for 2023 so far through May, which is the most at this point in the year since 2019. For me personally, the May 11 event was super intense, and we had a few other days with good but non-severe storms, but overall this was another below average May here, but certainly not the worst. Now it's time to shift into summer MCS/pop-up season, hopefully all the action out west can shift east soon. Could have some pop-ups tomorrow but Friday night looks more promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 1, 2023 Share Posted June 1, 2023 Interesting tornado report from today, the ghost town of lon ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 1, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 1, 2023 (edited) Amarillo to Canyon (south of Amarillo) got slammed with rain tonight. I never saw street/ditch/open field flooding like this in Ohio. Will be interested to see the pictures of flooding once the sun rises. Seems like moderate to heavy rain and lightning accounted for 7 of the past 8 hours. There was probably a wet microburst over the Umbarger mesonet. It picked up almost 0.9" in 7 minutes as well as a severe wind gust. Imagine rain like that... Edited June 1, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 1, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 1, 2023 (edited) Well I suppose this will be an important feature for today Edited June 1, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted June 1, 2023 Author Share Posted June 1, 2023 Nice little pop up storm heading my way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted June 2, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 2, 2023 (edited) Not gonna take much to break the cap today Very aggressive 850mb moisture surge able to be seen on satellite in SW TX. Gravity waves across the area... maybe mountain forced? And looks like there are some undular bores or gravity waves in the TX Panhandle rooted in the near-surface saturated layer (see above sounding). Spoiler Closer look Spoiler Edited June 2, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 2, 2023 Share Posted June 2, 2023 Pretty much all of W TX under tornado watches now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted June 2, 2023 Share Posted June 2, 2023 Target supercell is pretty obvious today. Feels like it has been awhile since I've seen some Pecos county magic, Fort Stockton supercell baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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