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May 17-June 3, 2023 | Severe Weather


ElectricStorm

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  • Meteorologist

Impressive rain event. 4.5” at a mesonet 19 miles NNW of Amarillo. Widespread 1-2” across the central Texas Panhandle. Almost 1.5" in Amarillo which now puts us above the year-to-date average, but almost all of that came in the past month and a half. Still have a long way to go to erase the drought.

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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Gonna end up with about 0.50" plus or minus 0.05". Not the 2" I was hoping for, but a slow steady rain that's lasted all day, which is arguably better than 2 inches in a couple of hours. Ground will be able to soak up this rain much more than what we got on Sunday. Currently 52 degrees outside. Feels more like early March or November. 

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51 minutes ago, Chinook said:

come on, man

come on man.jpg

I’m sure there’ll be some surprise events thrown in the mix next week… primarily somewhere between Tuesday and Friday. Definitely a High Plains pattern. All comes down to timing of individual shortwaves.

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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.61” overnight. The biggest rain event in like 2 weeks here. Things are drying up here. Complete reversal from a few months ago. Just straight up boring weather. No severe threats. No big temp swings, not even a pop up t storm.

shit pattern.

Edited by NWOhioChaser
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2 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

In a day 2 slight, day 3 marginal, and got storms heading for me now.

IMG_7640.png

I think the Panhandle will get some severe storms with kind of high LCLs. Possibly good hodograph/shear up to about 6km above ground. Above that, there will be weaker wind speeds.

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11 hours ago, Chinook said:

I think the Panhandle will get some severe storms with kind of high LCLs. Possibly good hodograph/shear up to about 6km above ground. Above that, there will be weaker wind speeds.

Despite weak winds aloft, 0-6km shear is looking solidly around 25-35 kts all week thanks to strong to very strong directional shear. But questions about the impacts of previous days storms will linger all week. The question today is where the MCV in SW KS ends up in the afternoon when thunderstorms develop south of it. Latest HRRR has some semi-discrete cells that probably would be supercellular in the northeast TX Panhandle. Could be a few hour window in the late afternoon/early evening where there is a bit of a tornado threat with the nocturnal LLJ kicking in IF a supercell exists. 

Tomorrow is looking more like a MCS across the TX Panhandle, but not sure about how much we'll destabilize in the south and east.

Overall, looks to be a good week to be in the OK/TX Panhandles if you want severe weather. I'm sure the chasers are already here. Might not have left after last week actually.

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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Last HRRR run before I go to bed and when I wake up the event will be going/starting.

Looks like it's trying to create a splitting supercell just south of Amarillo. 

mWZWLyn.png

 

Sounding an hour prior to the split. Would be interesting, that's for sure. Especially if it turns right and heads into Lubbock's area. 

35 kts effective shear but a right mover would only move at around 10 mph. 

cqZMola.png

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11 hours ago, ElectricStorm said:

Looks like there could be a western trough around next weekend but that east coast low is probably going to severely restrict severe potential. 

Positive PNA right now, could go negative by the end of this month.

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2 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Didn’t see the SE TX Panhandle blowing up like this this morning. Gotta be some nasty flash flooding east of Amarillo.

animated.thumb.gif.ea8ab12ef6e1eb4bbaff32d6ba5a32a8.gif
 

Supercell in the OK Panhandle warned for tennis ball hail

IMG_7642.png

Pretty damn impressive OFB there.

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Supercell over/near Perryton moving southeast at 10 mph capable of producing 2.5" hail

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
713 PM CDT Mon May 22 2023

OKC007-139-TXC357-230045-
/O.CON.KAMA.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-230523T0045Z/
Beaver OK-Texas OK-Ochiltree TX-
713 PM CDT Mon May 22 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN BEAVER...SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND NORTHWESTERN
OCHILTREE COUNTIES...

At 713 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles northwest of
Perryton, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Tennis ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to roofs, siding, and trees is possible. 
         People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles.

Locations impacted include...
Perryton and Bryans Corner. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3661 10061 3631 10074 3640 10109 3650 10109
      3655 10106 3665 10082
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 311DEG 8KT 3645 10086 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

image.thumb.png.0d33a2a50a7aeb755d84135540aea3c7.png

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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