Meteorologist Ingyball Posted May 11, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 11, 2023 RAP and HRRR down trended some here, though speed shear still looks excellent and any right mover would likely turn into a tornado produce in that environment. NAM and the WRF-NSSL still show a great environment, any left mover would become a big hail threat and a right mover could become a big tornado threat. It's hard to trust model SRH until you know the dominant storm motion for the day, anything that moves more to the right up here will be a very dangerous storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 Need to watch that cluster of storms down near Lawton. Models show it dying soon but it looks to me like it's going to persist for a while. The longer it lasts the more impact it could have for the next round later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 11, 2023 Author Share Posted May 11, 2023 24 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said: Need to watch that cluster of storms down near Lawton. Models show it dying soon but it looks to me like it's going to persist for a while. The longer it lasts the more impact it could have for the next round later. The cluster is slowly dying. The rain further north that is related to the complex is mostly gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 11, 2023 Author Share Posted May 11, 2023 1 hour ago, Neoncyclone said: The environment forecast to be in place over Central Oklahoma is definitely concerning.. The only potential saving grace i've seen is that models are a bit messy. Really hoping for no discrete storms this afternoon. If the inversion is slightly stronger, then it's a Lord have Mercy situation because it will only allow discrete Supercells to form, not a line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 (edited) Thick cloud cover here in C OK. Definitely got some work to do to recover before the main show gets here. Still plenty of time to do so. 16z HRRR doesn't show a whole lot of clearing, and it doesn't fire many cells in the northern part of the hatched area (up by OK/KS border) likely due to this. C OK looks to still be in the main supercell threat zone, and may become the bullseye for the strong tornado threat. It looks like that cluster north of the Red River is finally starting to die off Edited May 11, 2023 by ElectricStorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 11, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 11, 2023 (edited) Amarillo got 0.56" last night. Probably more on the western side of town. Slowly but surely chipping away at the drought. Maybe after this weekend there's been enough rain to erase concern about the drought hurting severe weather prospects during the peak of our tornado season here. Edited May 11, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 11, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 11, 2023 I don't envy OUN today, trying to figure out if you're actually gonna destabilize enough. Still got plenty of hours left. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 11, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 11, 2023 Feels like there's a lot of potential for today, but also a lot of room for it to bust or underwhelm. I'd certainly be watching southern Oklahoma today. If I was a chaser, that's where I'd be. Nice outflow boundary with locally backed surface winds and plenty of low-level moisture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 Sun is starting to peek through the clouds here now. 10 hatched is now centered on OKC metro. Tor watch should be up within the next hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 11, 2023 Author Share Posted May 11, 2023 Tornado Watch is up, 50/40% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 11, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 11, 2023 Storms are trying to develop along the outflow boundary along the TX/OK border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 the spiral at the upper level low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 11, 2023 Author Share Posted May 11, 2023 The Randlett Supercell really needs to be watched, it already has a massive mesocyclone on velocity. (Also, I can't post images at all on my School Chromebook) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 11, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 11, 2023 That cell in southern Oklahoma looks the most dangerous... especially given the LLJ will intensify in a couple hours. Notice the backed surface winds ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 Absolutely insane visuals out of Southern Oklahoma. Beautiful LP storm. storms popping to the north too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 Spoiler Mesoscale Discussion 0767 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0542 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023 Areas affected...Parts of south-central Oklahoma Concerning...Tornado Watch 213... Valid 112242Z - 120015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 213 continues. SUMMARY...The greatest near-term supercell tornado threat should be focused over portions of south-central Oklahoma between I-44 and I-35 during the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KFDR shows an evolving discrete supercell in Cotton County, OK -- where surface convergence is maximized along the intersection of a remnant outflow boundary and differential heating boundary. Additional discrete updrafts are also developing northward along the boundary into Comanche County. Ahead of this activity, visible satellite imagery shows billow clouds transitioning to HCRs, indicative of recovering outflow-modified air. Continued recovery/destabilization amid lower 70s dewpoints should favor continued intensification of the ongoing updrafts during the next couple of hours -- and weak large-scale ascent should favor a continued discrete mode. During the next couple of hours, a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet should favor larger, clockwise-turning low-level hodographs (150-200 m2/s2 effective SRH) -- supportive of longer-lived mesocyclones and a corresponding increase in supercell tornado threat. ..Weinman.. 05/11/2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 11, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 11, 2023 Very central-High-Plains-esque tornado outbreak going on now. Western KS/SW NE/E CO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 Cells rapidly developing from Lawton to Chickasha. Hopefully they can go linear quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 11, 2023 Author Share Posted May 11, 2023 I'm not sure why the Supercells would just fade away in that kind of favorable environment, maybe the atmosphere didn't fully recover from the morning convection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 Here in Norman I'm not very concerned about tornado potential right now. Storms look like they're going linear and not super strong yet. Hoping for a good non tornadic squall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 11, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 11, 2023 10 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: I'm not sure why the Supercells would just fade away in that kind of favorable environment, maybe the atmosphere didn't fully recover from the morning convection? Slight capping remaining or too much dry air aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 11, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 11, 2023 (edited) Based on the 21z OUN sounding... looks more likely there's just too much dry air aloft right now. Edit: remember, this would look different in southern Oklahoma. But this helps when comparing the RAP mesoanalysis skew-t to observed. Looks like southern OK may be drier than central OK. Central OK/northern OK might be the focus after all. Edited May 11, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 11, 2023 Author Share Posted May 11, 2023 (I can't quote or mention anyone on the school Chromebook) Yeah, it's like the 5/20/2019 High Risk bust, just too much dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 11, 2023 Share Posted May 11, 2023 (edited) cold core tornadoes Edited May 11, 2023 by Chinook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 11, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 11, 2023 (edited) Oklahoma tornado watch has been expanded north. Seems the dry air aloft in southern OK caught everyone off guard. Profiles look slightly more favorable farther north. Edited May 11, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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