Iceresistance Posted May 10, 2023 Author Share Posted May 10, 2023 First HRRR shows Supercells congealing into an embedded Supercell line for Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 10, 2023 Author Share Posted May 10, 2023 @Ingyball Complex incoming to you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted May 10, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 10, 2023 5 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: @Ingyball Complex incoming to you! Doesn't look like it will make it to the airport lol. Everywhere around us has had good rain though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 10, 2023 Author Share Posted May 10, 2023 1 minute ago, Ingyball said: Doesn't look like it will make it to the airport lol. Everywhere around us has had good rain though It's going to try to do it. Springfield, MO got insanely lucky from a major storm, it considerably weakened as it went through the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted May 10, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 10, 2023 (edited) Radar is starting to fill in, looks like the office may get more than a trace today. We'll fare a lot better just 12 miles to the north lol Edited May 10, 2023 by Ingyball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 26 minutes ago, Ingyball said: Radar is starting to fill in, looks like the office may get more than a trace today. We'll fare a lot better just 12 miles to the north lol Looks like you are under a warning now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted May 10, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Looks like you are under a warning now. Yup 2nd one of the day, this one packed more rain though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted May 10, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 10, 2023 And just like that the airport gets nearly an inch of rain. Just takes one storm to make a day lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 Day 2 outlook is out. Not a whole lot of changes yet, but they do mention a possible upgrade in later outlooks could be necessary, which personally I think it will be. Slight risk was expanded south slightly to Norman. I do think we'll see a 30% hail area at some point and maybe a 10% tornado area as well. Not sure it will go any higher than that yet but it certainly can't be ruled out. I'm actually getting more concerned about this setup and it's really starting to look like a classic May tornado event, especially for N OK/S KS but maybe for C OK as well. Could be come morning convection/cloud cover issues, but models currently seem to think the atmosphere should be able to recover in time for the main threat later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 10, 2023 Author Share Posted May 10, 2023 5 hours ago, ElectricStorm said: Day 2 outlook is out. Not a whole lot of changes yet, but they do mention a possible upgrade in later outlooks could be necessary, which personally I think it will be. Slight risk was expanded south slightly to Norman. I do think we'll see a 30% hail area at some point and maybe a 10% tornado area as well. Not sure it will go any higher than that yet but it certainly can't be ruled out. I'm actually getting more concerned about this setup and it's really starting to look like a classic May tornado event, especially for N OK/S KS but maybe for C OK as well. Could be come morning convection/cloud cover issues, but models currently seem to think the atmosphere should be able to recover in time for the main threat later on. KWTV is a little further south on the risk compared to the SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 Small enhanced risk added for today. I believe this is the first 10% tor area of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 10, 2023 Author Share Posted May 10, 2023 21 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said: Small enhanced risk added for today. I believe this is the first 10% tor area of the month In Denver, CO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted May 10, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 10, 2023 7 hours ago, ElectricStorm said: Day 2 outlook is out. Not a whole lot of changes yet, but they do mention a possible upgrade in later outlooks could be necessary, which personally I think it will be. Slight risk was expanded south slightly to Norman. I do think we'll see a 30% hail area at some point and maybe a 10% tornado area as well. Not sure it will go any higher than that yet but it certainly can't be ruled out. I'm actually getting more concerned about this setup and it's really starting to look like a classic May tornado event, especially for N OK/S KS but maybe for C OK as well. Could be come morning convection/cloud cover issues, but models currently seem to think the atmosphere should be able to recover in time for the main threat later on. I wouldn't usually be super concerned about cloud cover at this time of year with a strong warm air advection surge. There was a meteorologist in one of our agency chats who talked about this that most of your instability will be advected in via warm air advection. Now the sun can definitely help on days where it's borderline or you need to hit convective temperature, or areas further away from the Gulf. What you do have to watch for is when that warm air advection get cut off. If you have moisture in place then you do need the sun to come out and destabilize the atmosphere for you. That's kind of my concern for tomorrow. Though we already have some decent moisture in place, which I like, I'm worried about that low in Texas limiting moisture return some, especially if it travels further east. The west side of the low could also pull in enough dry air and stabilization to leave central Oklahoma and Kansas dry. On the flip side if it gets pulled in by the shortwave it becomes quite the concerning feature. I would expect some weakening in that scenario, but if the I-35 corridor finds itself north or even northeast of the low we could see enhanced backing of winds at the surface, a greater surge in moisture, and enhanced lift. I think you can make an argument that this might have the highest localized ceiling of any system this year (i.e. a more regional outbreak and not a multi region one like 3/31) but is also has probably the lowest floor. I think the CIPS analogs have shown this through the last couple of days with multiple different violent tor days (El Reno 2011, the day before Moore 2013, and the day before El Reno 2013 all showing up), but there has been no consistency with the analogs nor have any of these shown up at the same time yet. Definitely a highly conditional risk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 10, 2023 Author Share Posted May 10, 2023 16 minutes ago, Ingyball said: I wouldn't usually be super concerned about cloud cover at this time of year with a strong warm air advection surge. There was a meteorologist in one of our agency chats who talked about this that most of your instability will be advected in via warm air advection. Now the sun can definitely help on days where it's borderline or you need to hit convective temperature, or areas further away from the Gulf. What you do have to watch for is when that warm air advection get cut off. If you have moisture in place then you do need the sun to come out and destabilize the atmosphere for you. That's kind of my concern for tomorrow. Though we already have some decent moisture in place, which I like, I'm worried about that low in Texas limiting moisture return some, especially if it travels further east. The west side of the low could also pull in enough dry air and stabilization to leave central Oklahoma and Kansas dry. On the flip side if it gets pulled in by the shortwave it becomes quite the concerning feature. I would expect some weakening in that scenario, but if the I-35 corridor finds itself north or even northeast of the low we could see enhanced backing of winds at the surface, a greater surge in moisture, and enhanced lift. I think you can make an argument that this might have the highest localized ceiling of any system this year (i.e. a more regional outbreak and not a multi region one like 3/31) but is also has probably the lowest floor. I think the CIPS analogs have shown this through the last couple of days with multiple different violent tor days (El Reno 2011, the day before Moore 2013, and the day before El Reno 2013 all showing up), but there has been no consistency with the analogs nor have any of these shown up at the same time yet. Definitely a highly conditional risk. It could be huge, or it could be a nothingburger. Definitely a highly conditional setup. If that shortwave in Texas goes further east than expected, then we could have mostly uninterrupted moisture return if the morning storms either don't interfere or don't exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 Enhanced area up for NE CO for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 (edited) 12z model runs are still somewhat concerning for tomorrow, but not as concerning last night's 0z runs. I still think we'll see an enhanced at some point, although maybe not with the upcoming Day 2 update. The experimental RRFS looks concerning, but I don't really take much stock in that for now. EDIT: And they just added an enhanced Edited May 10, 2023 by ElectricStorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 10, 2023 Author Share Posted May 10, 2023 Day 2 SPC has 10% Tornado Hatched for Central Oklahoma That escalated quickly, good grief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 Got some pop ups firing south and east of here, moving NNW which is unusual here. Maybe I can get something from one of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 I wonder how favorable conditions are up here in Canada, sure does look like theres a nasty supercell taking shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 Theres the warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 23 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: Theres the warning That's a classic. I didn't realize that Radarscope displays Canadian weather warnings, but I guess it does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Chinook said: That's a classic. I didn't realize that Radarscope displays Canadian weather warnings, but I guess it does. This is the definition of a HP supercell, definitely hope there isn't a tornado under that thing. Not to mention the golfball to baseball sized hail it's warned for. Edited May 10, 2023 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 10, 2023 Share Posted May 10, 2023 Pop up cell right over me now, getting some decent rain from it. Tor warning on the cell heading to Denver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 10, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 10, 2023 (edited) Looks like GFS/Euro/HRRR were wrong about today. They were only showing less than 500 CAPE for the western TX/OK Panhandle. Got a solid 1000-1500 right now. Severe watch for moderate probabilities of all non-tornado hazards. Edited May 10, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 10, 2023 Author Share Posted May 10, 2023 1 hour ago, ElectricStorm said: Pop up cell right over me now, getting some decent rain from it. Tor warning on the cell heading to Denver Nope, that storm jumped to the east, the one further south has a "Funnel Cloud Reported" tag with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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