junior Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 Watched some towers build along the sunset earlier. That's about all she wrote today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 9, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 9, 2023 (edited) 0z NAM sounding for Amarillo at 1am Thursday. If a storm can take advantage of this... not good Edited May 9, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 9, 2023 Author Share Posted May 9, 2023 (edited) 14 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: 0z NAM sounding for Amarillo at 1am Friday. If a storm can take advantage of this... not good The 0z NAM is further west compared to 18z, but solid soundings even for me on Thursday Afternoon Edited May 9, 2023 by Iceresistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 Tomorrow night looks decent for a squall line in NE OK. It's been a very slow year for storms up there, but a decent chance to cash in assuming the line can hold up long enough. I think we could see an east shift/expansion of the slight risk for Thursday. N OK/S KS could be a target for some tornado action. C OK is probably just a bit too far south for that but I think we could still see a hail threat here if storms can form, but that's still up in the air for now. The only day coming up that I don't want storms is Friday, which means that'll probably be the day we get something... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 (edited) I have a severe warning for 60mph winds that is supposed to move through in the next 15 minutes. Edited May 9, 2023 by Grace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted May 9, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 9, 2023 Pretty sure this is our first watch here in Wichita since March, Can't remember if the watch on April 19th (after the main supercell) went this far south or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 9, 2023 Author Share Posted May 9, 2023 (edited) 25 minutes ago, Ingyball said: Pretty sure this is our first watch here in Wichita since March, Can't remember if the watch on April 19th (after the main supercell) went this far south or not. Yeah, that complex looks mean. Thursday could be big, the biggest since at least April 19th. Even though the SPC insists on the NW part of Oklahoma, the models are thinking that Central Oklahoma could be the bullseye. Edited May 9, 2023 by Iceresistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 Enhanced area in KS now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted May 9, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 9, 2023 (edited) HRRR and RAP have been doing a horrible job initializing this storm. Not sure what's happening there, but will be interesting to see how the storm behaves as it moves into a high CAPE environment. Effective shear has moved along with it, but it should move out of the higher shear values over the next few hours. Might be a push and pull effect. If can stay shear balanced, I would expect some 70 to 80 mph wind reports. Edit: Looks like we already have an 80, but I'd definitely expect an increase in the more energized environment. Edited May 9, 2023 by Ingyball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 9, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 9, 2023 (edited) Day 2 slight is creeping south Edited May 9, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 Rare Day 3 update. Expands the slight risk west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 9, 2023 Author Share Posted May 9, 2023 (edited) 1 minute ago, ElectricStorm said: Rare Day 3 update. Expands the slight risk west. Also south to include Oklahoma County Edited May 9, 2023 by Iceresistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted May 9, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 9, 2023 1 minute ago, ElectricStorm said: Rare Day 3 update. Expands the slight risk west. expandogensis 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted May 9, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 9, 2023 Radar trends are not good for rain here. MCS shifted back to a more easterly motion and if it doesn't fill in we may ended up getting gapped here. Putting all my hope into that supercell is risky lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 9, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 9, 2023 8 minutes ago, Ingyball said: Radar trends are not good for rain here. MCS shifted back to a more easterly motion and if it doesn't fill in we may ended up getting gapped here. Putting all my hope into that supercell is risky lol. Went with hail near Salina, KS for the severe wx challenge today. 1" report in Salina came in at 1857z... 3 minutes before it would count for me... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 9, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 9, 2023 (edited) Showers/storms are starting to try to develop here. Temps are in the mid-90s with dew points in the 30s. Probably wouldn't get any rain but I bet there would be strong winds. Looks like the cells in eastern Oklahoma Panhandle are getting close. Edited May 9, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 9, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 9, 2023 Borger, just north of Amarillo, got close to 100 today. Close but no cigar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted May 9, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 9, 2023 (edited) Go heavy rain here, probably at least a tenth of an inch if not a quarter. The airport somehow only came away with a trace so not much help there. Edited May 9, 2023 by Ingyball 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 9, 2023 Share Posted May 9, 2023 all signs point to: hail (5:52pm eastern) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 10, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 10, 2023 Here, we've only had about 2.5" of rain since January 1 and we're going on the 3rd or 4th year of significant drought. So this forecast for the next week is a pretty big deal. Will hopefully shut down fire weather for at least a couple weeks, if not the warm/wet season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted May 10, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 10, 2023 Let's see if this supercell can survive it's journey here. The atmosphere is pretty worked over further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 10, 2023 Author Share Posted May 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Here, we've only had about 2.5" of rain since January 1 and we're going on the 3rd or 4th year of significant drought. So this forecast for the next week is a pretty big deal. Will hopefully shut down fire weather for at least a couple weeks, if not the warm/wet season. Well, for comparison, Shawnee got 14 inches since January 1st. On average, it's 12.3 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 10, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 10, 2023 (edited) 17 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Well, for comparison, Shawnee got 14 inches since January 1st. On average, it's 12.3 inches. Not surprised. Usually eastern Oklahoma does well in Ninas. We have drought feedback loop/sub-regionally unfavorable Nina pattern haunting us. There's been numerous cases in the past month in Texas where a MCS dumps more rain in an hour than we've had in 4-5 months. The MCS last night was probably another one of those cases. Fortunately the past 3-4 weeks have had some abnormally wet periods, and based on the rapid weakening of the Nina over the past several months, hopefully this is more than just a coincidence. Edited May 10, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 10, 2023 Author Share Posted May 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Not surprised. Usually eastern Oklahoma does well in Ninas. We have drought feedback loop/sub-regionally unfavorable Nina pattern haunting us. There's been numerous cases in the past month in Texas where a MCS dumps more rain in an hour than we've had in 4-5 months. The MCS last night was probably another one of those cases. Fortunately the past 3-4 weeks have had some abnormally wet periods, so maybe... just maybe... it's a sign of the changing ENSO. Even the Nina does not like me either, 112°F this past July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 10, 2023 Author Share Posted May 10, 2023 78 mph reported in Springfield, MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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