May 2 - 16, 2023 | Severe Weather Sequence

[snowlover2]

New day 2. Mention of a possible substantial wind damage threat in the slight risk area.

Quote

 Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1259 AM CDT Sun May 07 2023

   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
   OZARKS EASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms with wind damage and isolated large hail will
   be possible on Monday from the Ozarks east-northeastward into the
   mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe storms may also occur in
   parts of the southern Plains, Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians.

   ...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley...
   Zonal mid-level flow is forecast across the central U.S. on Monday,
   with west-northwest mid-level flow remaining in the eastern states.
   At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward into the
   mid Mississippi Valley and Ozarks by late afternoon. Surface
   dewpoints in the 60s F to the south of the front will likely result
   in moderate instability over much of this moist airmass by
   afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the
   vicinity of the front near peak heating, with convection moving
   east-southeastward across the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley.
   Storm development may continue in the evening in areas with
   sufficient instability.

   Some model forecasts suggest that a 45 to 60 knot mid-level jet will
   move eastward through the mid Mississippi Valley on Monday. This
   feature would create moderate deep-layer shear, sufficient for a
   severe threat. Although supercells with large hail will be possible,
   the more favored mode could be multicell since the deep-layer flow
   is forecast to be parallel to the boundary. If a line segment and
   cold pool can organize, then a substantial wind-damage threat could
   devleop. At this point, spatial uncertainty concerning a potential
   swath of wind damage remains uncertain.

   ...Southern Plains...
   Westerly mid-level flow, with subtle anticyclonic curvature, is
   forecast across the southern Plains on Monday. At the surface, a
   moist airmass will likely be located across much of Texas and
   Oklahoma. Although large-scale forcing should be weak, the southern
   Plains cap is forecast to diminish by late afternoon. This could
   allow for isolated convective initiation along and to the east of a
   dryline during the mid to late afternoon. Strong instability and
   relatively weak mid-level flow would favor multicells with
   wind-damage and hail potential.

   ...Ohio Valley/Southern Appalachians...
   West-northwest mid-level flow is forecast across the Ohio Valley and
   southern Appalachians on Monday. This area will likely be on the
   eastern edge of a moist airmass with surface dewpoints in the 60s F.
   As surface temperatures warm during the day, convective development
   appears most likely along a gradient of instability from central
   Kentucky southeastward into the southern Appalachians. Forecast
   soundings along this corridor at 21Z suggest that 0-6 km shear will
   be around 30 knots and low-level lapse rates will be steep. This
   could be enough for a marginal wind-damage threat. Hail could also
   occur with the stronger updrafts.

   ..Broyles.. 05/07/2023

 

[StormfanaticInd]

54 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Severe warned storms just north of Indy now.

The lightning was pretty intense 

[NWOhioChaser]

Managed to actually get some storms for once. Too bad it was 4am last night and I was trying to sleep. Some gusty winds, heavy rain. Nothing too bad. 

Edited May 7, 2023 by NWOhioChaser

[ClicheVortex2014]

Dew point has dropped about 15 degrees in 2 hours. Gee, wonder why

[Chinook]

2 hours ago, NWOhioChaser said:

Managed to actually get some storms for once. Too bad it was 4am last night and I was trying to sleep. Some gusty winds, heavy rain. Nothing too bad. 

I think that's the first time I've heard thunder since March. And I was asleep.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Got a day 3 slight risk for the northeastern part of the TX/OK Panhandles. Shear is pretty weak but I guess instability isn't too bad.

[Central Illinois]

Looks like it could be a decent day for severe weather across N MO/S IA/W IL

[snowlover2]

Slight risk expanded east into IN and south into NE MO/NW TN/W KY with still a mention of a possible enhanced area needed on updated day 2.

Quote

 Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CDT Sun May 07 2023

   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
   MISSOURI VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe storms are most probable from the mid Mississippi
   Valley into the Ohio Valley, with damaging winds and hail. Sporadic
   severe storms cannot be ruled out anywhere from Texas to the
   Appalachians.

   ...Synopsis...
   A low-predictability weather pattern will exist on Monday, with a
   belt of modest midlevel flow from the central Plains across the OH
   Valley, and a large area of instability from the southern Plains to
   the OH and TN Valleys. Of primary focus will be a midlevel wave
   positioned from IA into northern IL Monday morning. This feature is
   forecast to move east/southeast across the OH Valley states,
   providing enhanced wind speeds and deep layer shear. A weak surface
   low will also track from IL to WV with the associated midlevel wave,
   and this corridor will be the main focus for potential damaging
   winds and hail. A cold front will extend southwestward from the low,
   from southern MO into OK, with a very moist and unstable air mass to
   the south. In addition, a dryline will stretch from northwest TX
   southward toward the Big Bend.

   Elsewhere, a shortwave trough will affect parts of northern CA and
   NV into OR and ID, providing cool air aloft, weak instability and
   scattered afternoon thunderstorms.  Locally gusty winds or small
   hail may occur.

   ...Lower MO/Mid MS/OH Valleys...
   The initiation of severe potential may be tied to the position of
   early day storms over the IA/IL/MO area Monday morning. These storms
   and associated outflow may persist throughout the morning with an
   increasing severe wind risk as the air mass becomes very unstable.
   Forecast soundings show steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient
   midlevel flow to produce an MCS producing wind damage. However, if
   the early morning storms have not produced much outflow, then
   afternoon development may be cellular initially, producing large
   hail and perhaps a tornado given effective SRH over 200 m2/s2 ahead
   of the low. In summary, nearly all modes of severe will be possible
   from eastern MO into OH and KY, primarily with damaging wind and
   large hail. While predictability is low, the potential for a
   concentrated corridor of wind damage could develop, necessitating
   higher probabilities in later updates.

   ...AR into OK and parts of western TX...
   The boundary moving out of MO into AR, extending west into OK, will
   likely provide a focus for diurnal development, as heating of a
   moist air mass results in 3000-4000 J/kg MUCAPE. Westerly flow aloft
   at this latitude will be generally weak, but low-level convergence
   may be enough to initiate scattered clusters of storms along this
   front from afternoon through evening. Some of the stronger storms
   will likely produce large hail or locally damaging gusts. Farther
   south along the dryline into TX, strong heating will totally erode
   the capping inversion, and at least isolated thunderstorms are
   expected, producing localized strong gusts or hail.

   ..Jewell.. 05/07/2023

 

Edited May 7, 2023 by snowlover2

[snowlover2]

First watch of the day up in C/S IL and far west KY.

Quote

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 195
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   120 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Central and Southern Illinois
     Western Kentucky
     East Central and Southeast Missouri

   * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until
     900 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
       to 2 inches in diameter possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are beginning to form along a weak boundary
   across western Illinois.  These storms will expand in coverage
   through the afternoon, with a risk of large hail and damaging wind
   gusts in the strongest cells.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
   statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northwest
   of Springfield IL to 40 miles south of Paducah KY. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   29025.

   ...Hart

 

[snowlover2]

MD for the enhanced area.

Quote

Mesoscale Discussion 0710
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0210 PM CDT Sun May 07 2023

   Areas affected...far east-central Nebraska into central/southern
   Iowa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 071910Z - 072115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated large hail may accompany an intense cell tracking
   east across central Iowa over the next couple of hours. Additional,
   more widespread storms are expected later this afternoon/evening. A
   watch will likely be needed at some point later this afternoon, but
   timing remains uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...An isolated, severe thunderstorm has been tracking
   eastward along a surface boundary with the stronger instability
   gradient over central IA. Marginally severe hail has been reported
   with this storm recently over Carroll County. This cell may continue
   to periodically produce large hail and gusty winds as it shifts
   eastward along the surface boundary.

   Additional thunderstorm development is expected later this afternoon
   or early evening as a surface low over southeast NE lifts northeast
   toward the MO River over the next few hours. Various surface fronts
   and outflow boundaries exist across the area, providing potential
   points of focus for thunderstorm development. Strong heating and
   dewpoints in the low/mid 60s beneath steep midlevel lapse rates is
   resulting in moderate destabilization from east-central NE into
   southern IA. While some capping is still evident near the MO River
   into southwest IA as depicted by billow clouds on visible satellite,
   erosion of the cap is more evident further east toward southeast IA
   where deepening cumulus is noted. Additional heating and increasing
   ascent later today will support rapid thunderstorm development.
   However, timing remains a bit uncertain. Hi-res CAMs suggest later
   development closer to 00z, however observational trends suggest
   early convective initiation may be possible. 

   Backed low-level flow and increasing 850 mb southwesterly flow with
   time will support enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs. A
   few tornadoes, in addition to large hail and damaging gusts will be
   possible. A watch will likely be needed at some point this afternoon
   (most likely by 21-23z).

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 05/07/2023

 

[snowlover2]

Couple of tornado warnings in IL. One near Springfield and the other near Auburn.

[snowlover2]

Possible baseball sized hail in IA.

Quote

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
505 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

IAC157-171-072230-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-230507T2230Z/
Poweshiek IA-Tama IA-
505 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR POWESHIEK AND SOUTHEASTERN TAMA COUNTIES...

At 504 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Malcom, or 7
miles southeast of Grinnell, moving east at 40 mph.

THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR POWESHIEK COUNTY.

HAZARD...Baseball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured.
         Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs,
         siding, and vehicles.

Locations impacted include...
  Montezuma, Brooklyn, Victor, Deep River, Guernsey and Victor.

This includes Interstate 80 between mile markers 188 and 204.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4151 9244 4154 9265 4191 9259 4193 9230
      4151 9230
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 276DEG 34KT 4169 9259

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

 

[snowlover2]

Just now, snowlover2 said:

Possible baseball sized hail in IA.

 

Correction there is baseball sized hail in IA.

Quote

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
456 PM CDT SUN MAY 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     HAIL             6 SW MALCOM             41.66N 92.65W
05/07/2023  E2.75 INCH       POWESHIEK          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
            WITH WIDE RANGE OF SIZES. POTENTIALLY SOME
            WIND DAMAGE.

 

[snowlover2]

Quote

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 199
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   645 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Southwest Iowa
     Northern Kansas
     Northwest Missouri
     Central and Eastern Nebraska

   * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 645 PM
     until 100 AM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
       to 80 mph possible
     Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
       to 3 inches in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and quickly
   increase this evening initially across northern Kansas and
   south-central Nebraska. Some initial supercells capable of very
   large hail can be expected. Some tornado risk may materialize later
   this evening, but the potential for damaging winds should become the
   most prominent hazard with the likelihood that a well-organized
   cluster/MCS develops and moves east-southeastward across the region
   later this evening into the overnight.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
   statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles north of Hill
   City KS to 35 miles east southeast of Shenandoah IA. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 195...WW 196...WW
   197...WW 198...

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
   28030.

   ...Guyer

 

[snowlover2]

Tornado warning in SW IA.

[snowlover2]

Make that 2 tornado warnings in SW IA.

[Chinook]

Tomorrow: 

I think the SPC will keep the slight risk area from possibly Columbus OH, westward to southwest Missouri. CAPE values will be moderate (as in, 3000 J/kg) to high (4000 J/kg) again and coverage of severe cells may be kind of low. It is possible that several severe storms happen in southern Illinois.

Today: has certainly lived up to the enhanced risk. Much of eastern Iowa had severe storm reports, so the hail/wind 30% worked out 

[snowlover2]

8 hours ago, Chinook said:

Tomorrow: 

I think the SPC will keep the slight risk area from possibly Columbus OH, westward to southwest Missouri. CAPE values will be moderate (as in, 3000 J/kg) to high (4000 J/kg) again and coverage of severe cells may be kind of low. It is possible that several severe storms happen in southern Illinois.

Today: has certainly lived up to the enhanced risk. Much of eastern Iowa had severe storm reports, so the hail/wind 30% worked out 

Pretty spot on.

Quote

 Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1252 AM CDT Mon May 08 2023

   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms should occur today from the mid
   Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley, with damaging winds and
   large hail the main threats. A separate area of severe thunderstorms
   may occur across parts of the southern Plains.

   ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley...
   An MCS will likely still be ongoing at the start of the period later
   this morning across parts of the mid MS Valley into the lower OH
   Valley. Most guidance suggests this convective cluster should weaken
   through the late morning as it advances east-southeastward. But, an
   isolated threat for mainly damaging winds may persist with this
   activity if it can remain surface based. In the wake of the morning
   convection, nearly all guidance suggests that moderate to locally
   strong instability will develop ahead of a front from
   central/southern MO northeastward across much of the OH Valley, as
   steep mid-level lapse rates emanating from an EML over the central
   Plains spread eastward. With clouds/convective debris from the
   morning activity probably still present over parts of this region,
   the degree of instability that can develop is still somewhat
   uncertain.

   However, it does appear likely that additional robust thunderstorms
   will form by mid to late afternoon along/south of a front, as a
   weak/low-amplitude shortwave trough moves eastward across the OH
   Valley. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough for supercells with
   the initial development, and scattered large hail may be the initial
   severe hazard. With time, one or more bowing clusters will likely
   develop and spread southward/eastward through the late afternoon and
   early evening. As this mode transition occurs, severe/damaging winds
   will probably become the main threat. Although low-level winds are
   forecast to mostly veered to west-southwesterly and not overly
   strong, there may still be an opportunity for a tornado or two with
   any supercell that can be sustained. Given trends in 00Z guidance
   for greater instability and thunderstorm coverage across IN into
   eastern KY/southwestern OH and the central Appalachians, have
   expanded both the Marginal and Slight Risk areas east-northeastward
   to encompass this potential severe threat.

   ...Southern Plains...
   Similar to the last few days, isolated to widely scattered
   thunderstorms should develop once again late this afternoon and
   evening along/east of a dryline that will be located across parts of
   west TX. While deep-layer shear is forecast to remain quite modest,
   strong to very strong instability is forecast owing to robust
   daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass, and the presence of
   steep mid-level lapse rates. Although convection that develops may
   tend to be fairly disorganized, the ample instability should aid in
   the development of robust updrafts and compensate to some extent for
   the weak deep-layer shear.

   A Slight Risk has been added where the greatest concentration of
   convection is forecast, with both large hail and severe wind gusts
   possible. The Marginal Risk has also been expanded eastward to
   include more of central into south-central TX, as some guidance
   suggests convection emanating from northern Mexico may persist and
   pose some severe risk into these areas through the evening.

   ..Gleason/Lyons.. 05/08/2023

 

[snowlover2]

ILN with a bit of a novel concerning severe threat.

Quote

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The main concern for the forecast is the potential for strong to
severe storms this afternoon and evening. Quieter conditions are
expected this morning.

Early this morning, the ILN CWA remains in a relative minimum in
convective activity across the region. The surface pressure
pattern is very nebulous over the area, with some subtle ridging
just upstream at 700mb, leading to subsidence. The SPC
mesoanalysis also depicts some CIN over the region, and theta-e
advection aloft remains well off to the west. This will lead to
largely dry conditions through the morning, and PoPs have been
tightened up to keep things dry (or in just the slight chance
PoP range) for the next 6-9 hours or so. An MCS currently
moving into Illinois will eventually outrun its source of
theta-e and forcing, as it is expected to largely decay as it
moves southeast through Indiana after 14Z. No impacts are
expected in the ILN CWA as a result of this MCS.

Mostly cloudy conditions are expected today, though depending on
the MCS evolution, some breaks are possible. Max temps today
will have a bit of a gradient, with upper 70s in the south and
lower 70s in the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
By afternoon, behind the morning MCS, an area of surface low
pressure is expected to be tracking eastward across northern
Illinois. Ahead of this low, there will be a considerable amount
of well-pronounced theta-e advection -- not just right at the
surface, but through at least 850mb. In the southwestern ILN
CWA (Cincinnati and vicinity) surface dewpoints should get into
the mid 60s, with precipitable water values of around an inch
and a quarter. Mid-level lapse rates will also be steepening
considerably through the afternoon, with a plume of lapse rates
greater than 7 C/km advecting into the area after 21Z. These
thermodynamic parameters will be maximized over the southeastern
ILN CWA, where SBCAPE values of around 2000 J/kg are expected.
A gradient in instability will exist from there to the north,
with SBCAPE below 1000 J/kg on the northern periphery of the
forecast area. One thing that could reduce the expected
instability somewhat is if clouds associated with the morning
MCS remain overlaid across the area, or even if some showers end
up moving into. If so, this could limit surface heating. As it
is, low-level lapse rates are not expected to be particularly
impressive today.

Within this generally-favorable thermodynamic environment,
forcing is gradually expected to increase this afternoon, ahead
of the surface low that will be moving eastward. 00Z CAM
guidance supports convective timing across the ILN CWA (from
northwest to southeast) from about 21Z-04Z. Interestingly, the
06Z HRRR is a couple hours delayed from this projection. There
does seem to be a bit of spread in the guidance regarding the
strength, timing, and position of the surface low -- so this
will be one important part of the forecast that will need to be
refined as the morning progresses. In terms of specific forcing
for the storms, they are likely to develop ahead of the surface
frontal boundary -- perhaps on a pre-frontal trough, or perhaps
more closely tied to the 850mb theta-e advection.

SPC has placed approximately two-thirds of the forecast area in
a SLGT risk for all modes of severe weather. The parameter space
for this event would indicate the potential for some discrete
supercell development, followed by eventual upscale growth into
broken clusters or line segments. At 00Z, 0-6km shear will be
out of the WNW at about 40-45 knots, and 0-1km shear will be out
of the SW at about 15 knots. Shear and instability are both
supportive of organized storms, with the potential for large
hail and damaging winds. With the surface low in the vicinity,
there is also enough directional shear to present some concern
for tornadoes, with some modest curvature to the hodographs.
With that said, there are also some limiting factors against
tornado development -- poor low-level lapse rates, marginal LCL
values (3500-4000 feet AGL), and a generally weak magnitude to
the surface flow. Overall, the SPC forecast -- 15% for wind and
hail, and a more uncertain 2% for tornado -- appears to match
the ILN thinking this morning. As is often the case in these
scenarios, the thermodynamic parameters are more favorable
further to the south, and the shear and helicity parameters are
more favorable further to the north. The overlap between the two
will be an important forecast consideration. There is also a
marginal risk for heavy rain and localized flooding, but with
convection expected to be moving at a reasonable speed, this
would likely be dependent on training storms.

A surface cold front will trail the surface low and sweep
through the forecast area late tonight, bringing an end to the
main round of showers and storms. Beyond this, forecast
confidence is surprisingly low regarding the departure of this
surface low, and a 500mb trough that will be rotating behind it
through the Great Lakes. For example, at 12Z Tuesday morning,
will the low be over Cleveland (00Z GFS) or Pittsburgh (00Z NAM)
or West Virginia (06Z HRRR)? Similar to the HRRR, other 00Z CAMS
are more progressive and south with the low as well, but also
produce activity under the 500mb trough after 12Z in central
Ohio. Far too much of this forecast is dependent on convective
evolution over the span of the next 24-36 hours to say with any
certainty how this will evolve, so for now broad-brushed PoPs
will remain in place across the southern and eastern portion so
the CWA through Tuesday morning.

On Tuesday, regardless of the exact position of the low, cold
advection is favored -- and highs will likely drop to the mid
60s to mid 70s across the forecast area.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

3 straight days of being a marginal or slight here. Starting to feel like May. Though I will say I think Thursday looks very questionable. Was surprised when we had the day 5 slight, and was surprised again when there were no big changes with the new day 4 slight. Thought it would be gone by now.

As someone new to the Plains, it's been fun to watch the dryline go back and forth the past two nights. Come in with the dew point in the 20s, a couple hours later it's in the 50s. It'd be more fun if 50 dew points felt like anything to me, but both still feel dry to me. People that have been here for a while can feel the difference I guess.

Edited May 8, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[ElectricStorm]

I don't take much stock in long range models, but they are consistently showing a garbage pattern for most of the rest of the month. Got a marginal here today and another one tomorrow, hopefully Thursday can do something because it might be a while before we have another chance after that. 

Edited May 8, 2023 by ElectricStorm

[Iceresistance]

7 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said:

I don't take much stock in long range models, but they are consistently showing a garbage pattern for most of the rest of the month. Got a marginal here today and another one tomorrow, hopefully Thursday can do something because it might be a while before we have another chance after that. 

Even the Ensembles are showing a lull in Mid-May, before things pick back up in Late May.

[Iceresistance]

I hope that May 14th is not crazy, May 25th, 2011 (El Reno EF-5 AKA "Oklahoma's forgotten EF-5") and April 25th, 2016 has showed up as an analog there.

 

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=GP&fhr=F132&rundt=2023050812&map=thbSVR

[ElectricStorm]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

I hope that May 14th is not crazy, May 25th, 2011 (El Reno EF-5 AKA "Oklahoma's forgotten EF-5") and April 25th, 2016 has showed up as an analog there.

 

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=GP&fhr=F132&rundt=2023050812&map=thbSVR

Looking at model runs I highly doubt it. Probably will be severe weather somewhere like most days in May but shouldn't be anything crazy. Some of these early CIPS runs can add some random big days in there, I bet they'll be gone in the next few runs. 

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, ElectricStorm said:

Looking at model runs I highly doubt it. Probably will be severe weather somewhere like most days in May but shouldn't be anything crazy. Some of these early CIPS runs can add some random big days in there, I bet they'll be gone in the next few runs. 

If it was for May 11th (Thursday), then it would be more believable.