snowlover2 Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 New day 2. Mention of a possible substantial wind damage threat in the slight risk area. Quote Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sun May 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE OZARKS EASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible on Monday from the Ozarks east-northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe storms may also occur in parts of the southern Plains, Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians. ...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... Zonal mid-level flow is forecast across the central U.S. on Monday, with west-northwest mid-level flow remaining in the eastern states. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward into the mid Mississippi Valley and Ozarks by late afternoon. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F to the south of the front will likely result in moderate instability over much of this moist airmass by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the vicinity of the front near peak heating, with convection moving east-southeastward across the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Storm development may continue in the evening in areas with sufficient instability. Some model forecasts suggest that a 45 to 60 knot mid-level jet will move eastward through the mid Mississippi Valley on Monday. This feature would create moderate deep-layer shear, sufficient for a severe threat. Although supercells with large hail will be possible, the more favored mode could be multicell since the deep-layer flow is forecast to be parallel to the boundary. If a line segment and cold pool can organize, then a substantial wind-damage threat could devleop. At this point, spatial uncertainty concerning a potential swath of wind damage remains uncertain. ...Southern Plains... Westerly mid-level flow, with subtle anticyclonic curvature, is forecast across the southern Plains on Monday. At the surface, a moist airmass will likely be located across much of Texas and Oklahoma. Although large-scale forcing should be weak, the southern Plains cap is forecast to diminish by late afternoon. This could allow for isolated convective initiation along and to the east of a dryline during the mid to late afternoon. Strong instability and relatively weak mid-level flow would favor multicells with wind-damage and hail potential. ...Ohio Valley/Southern Appalachians... West-northwest mid-level flow is forecast across the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians on Monday. This area will likely be on the eastern edge of a moist airmass with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, convective development appears most likely along a gradient of instability from central Kentucky southeastward into the southern Appalachians. Forecast soundings along this corridor at 21Z suggest that 0-6 km shear will be around 30 knots and low-level lapse rates will be steep. This could be enough for a marginal wind-damage threat. Hail could also occur with the stronger updrafts. ..Broyles.. 05/07/2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 54 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Severe warned storms just north of Indy now. The lightning was pretty intense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 (edited) Managed to actually get some storms for once. Too bad it was 4am last night and I was trying to sleep. Some gusty winds, heavy rain. Nothing too bad. Edited May 7, 2023 by NWOhioChaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 7, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 7, 2023 Dew point has dropped about 15 degrees in 2 hours. Gee, wonder why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 2 hours ago, NWOhioChaser said: Managed to actually get some storms for once. Too bad it was 4am last night and I was trying to sleep. Some gusty winds, heavy rain. Nothing too bad. I think that's the first time I've heard thunder since March. And I was asleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 7, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 7, 2023 Got a day 3 slight risk for the northeastern part of the TX/OK Panhandles. Shear is pretty weak but I guess instability isn't too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted May 7, 2023 Moderators Share Posted May 7, 2023 Looks like it could be a decent day for severe weather across N MO/S IA/W IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 (edited) Slight risk expanded east into IN and south into NE MO/NW TN/W KY with still a mention of a possible enhanced area needed on updated day 2. Quote Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun May 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are most probable from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley, with damaging winds and hail. Sporadic severe storms cannot be ruled out anywhere from Texas to the Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A low-predictability weather pattern will exist on Monday, with a belt of modest midlevel flow from the central Plains across the OH Valley, and a large area of instability from the southern Plains to the OH and TN Valleys. Of primary focus will be a midlevel wave positioned from IA into northern IL Monday morning. This feature is forecast to move east/southeast across the OH Valley states, providing enhanced wind speeds and deep layer shear. A weak surface low will also track from IL to WV with the associated midlevel wave, and this corridor will be the main focus for potential damaging winds and hail. A cold front will extend southwestward from the low, from southern MO into OK, with a very moist and unstable air mass to the south. In addition, a dryline will stretch from northwest TX southward toward the Big Bend. Elsewhere, a shortwave trough will affect parts of northern CA and NV into OR and ID, providing cool air aloft, weak instability and scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Locally gusty winds or small hail may occur. ...Lower MO/Mid MS/OH Valleys... The initiation of severe potential may be tied to the position of early day storms over the IA/IL/MO area Monday morning. These storms and associated outflow may persist throughout the morning with an increasing severe wind risk as the air mass becomes very unstable. Forecast soundings show steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient midlevel flow to produce an MCS producing wind damage. However, if the early morning storms have not produced much outflow, then afternoon development may be cellular initially, producing large hail and perhaps a tornado given effective SRH over 200 m2/s2 ahead of the low. In summary, nearly all modes of severe will be possible from eastern MO into OH and KY, primarily with damaging wind and large hail. While predictability is low, the potential for a concentrated corridor of wind damage could develop, necessitating higher probabilities in later updates. ...AR into OK and parts of western TX... The boundary moving out of MO into AR, extending west into OK, will likely provide a focus for diurnal development, as heating of a moist air mass results in 3000-4000 J/kg MUCAPE. Westerly flow aloft at this latitude will be generally weak, but low-level convergence may be enough to initiate scattered clusters of storms along this front from afternoon through evening. Some of the stronger storms will likely produce large hail or locally damaging gusts. Farther south along the dryline into TX, strong heating will totally erode the capping inversion, and at least isolated thunderstorms are expected, producing localized strong gusts or hail. ..Jewell.. 05/07/2023 Edited May 7, 2023 by snowlover2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 First watch of the day up in C/S IL and far west KY. Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 195 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 120 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Southern Illinois Western Kentucky East Central and Southeast Missouri * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are beginning to form along a weak boundary across western Illinois. These storms will expand in coverage through the afternoon, with a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northwest of Springfield IL to 40 miles south of Paducah KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Hart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 MD for the enhanced area. Quote Mesoscale Discussion 0710 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Sun May 07 2023 Areas affected...far east-central Nebraska into central/southern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 071910Z - 072115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail may accompany an intense cell tracking east across central Iowa over the next couple of hours. Additional, more widespread storms are expected later this afternoon/evening. A watch will likely be needed at some point later this afternoon, but timing remains uncertain. DISCUSSION...An isolated, severe thunderstorm has been tracking eastward along a surface boundary with the stronger instability gradient over central IA. Marginally severe hail has been reported with this storm recently over Carroll County. This cell may continue to periodically produce large hail and gusty winds as it shifts eastward along the surface boundary. Additional thunderstorm development is expected later this afternoon or early evening as a surface low over southeast NE lifts northeast toward the MO River over the next few hours. Various surface fronts and outflow boundaries exist across the area, providing potential points of focus for thunderstorm development. Strong heating and dewpoints in the low/mid 60s beneath steep midlevel lapse rates is resulting in moderate destabilization from east-central NE into southern IA. While some capping is still evident near the MO River into southwest IA as depicted by billow clouds on visible satellite, erosion of the cap is more evident further east toward southeast IA where deepening cumulus is noted. Additional heating and increasing ascent later today will support rapid thunderstorm development. However, timing remains a bit uncertain. Hi-res CAMs suggest later development closer to 00z, however observational trends suggest early convective initiation may be possible. Backed low-level flow and increasing 850 mb southwesterly flow with time will support enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs. A few tornadoes, in addition to large hail and damaging gusts will be possible. A watch will likely be needed at some point this afternoon (most likely by 21-23z). ..Leitman/Hart.. 05/07/2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 Couple of tornado warnings in IL. One near Springfield and the other near Auburn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 Possible baseball sized hail in IA. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Des Moines IA 505 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023 IAC157-171-072230- /O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-230507T2230Z/ Poweshiek IA-Tama IA- 505 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR POWESHIEK AND SOUTHEASTERN TAMA COUNTIES... At 504 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Malcom, or 7 miles southeast of Grinnell, moving east at 40 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR POWESHIEK COUNTY. HAZARD...Baseball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured. Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs, siding, and vehicles. Locations impacted include... Montezuma, Brooklyn, Victor, Deep River, Guernsey and Victor. This includes Interstate 80 between mile markers 188 and 204. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 4151 9244 4154 9265 4191 9259 4193 9230 4151 9230 TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 276DEG 34KT 4169 9259 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 Just now, snowlover2 said: Possible baseball sized hail in IA. Correction there is baseball sized hail in IA. Quote PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 456 PM CDT SUN MAY 7 2023 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0450 PM HAIL 6 SW MALCOM 41.66N 92.65W 05/07/2023 E2.75 INCH POWESHIEK IA TRAINED SPOTTER SPOTTER REPORTED STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH WIDE RANGE OF SIZES. POTENTIALLY SOME WIND DAMAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 199 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 645 PM CDT Sun May 7 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Iowa Northern Kansas Northwest Missouri Central and Eastern Nebraska * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 645 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and quickly increase this evening initially across northern Kansas and south-central Nebraska. Some initial supercells capable of very large hail can be expected. Some tornado risk may materialize later this evening, but the potential for damaging winds should become the most prominent hazard with the likelihood that a well-organized cluster/MCS develops and moves east-southeastward across the region later this evening into the overnight. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles north of Hill City KS to 35 miles east southeast of Shenandoah IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 195...WW 196...WW 197...WW 198... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Guyer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 8, 2023 Share Posted May 8, 2023 Tornado warning in SW IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 8, 2023 Share Posted May 8, 2023 Make that 2 tornado warnings in SW IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 8, 2023 Share Posted May 8, 2023 Tomorrow: I think the SPC will keep the slight risk area from possibly Columbus OH, westward to southwest Missouri. CAPE values will be moderate (as in, 3000 J/kg) to high (4000 J/kg) again and coverage of severe cells may be kind of low. It is possible that several severe storms happen in southern Illinois. Today: has certainly lived up to the enhanced risk. Much of eastern Iowa had severe storm reports, so the hail/wind 30% worked out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 8, 2023 Share Posted May 8, 2023 8 hours ago, Chinook said: Tomorrow: I think the SPC will keep the slight risk area from possibly Columbus OH, westward to southwest Missouri. CAPE values will be moderate (as in, 3000 J/kg) to high (4000 J/kg) again and coverage of severe cells may be kind of low. It is possible that several severe storms happen in southern Illinois. Today: has certainly lived up to the enhanced risk. Much of eastern Iowa had severe storm reports, so the hail/wind 30% worked out Pretty spot on. Quote Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Mon May 08 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms should occur today from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley, with damaging winds and large hail the main threats. A separate area of severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the southern Plains. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley... An MCS will likely still be ongoing at the start of the period later this morning across parts of the mid MS Valley into the lower OH Valley. Most guidance suggests this convective cluster should weaken through the late morning as it advances east-southeastward. But, an isolated threat for mainly damaging winds may persist with this activity if it can remain surface based. In the wake of the morning convection, nearly all guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will develop ahead of a front from central/southern MO northeastward across much of the OH Valley, as steep mid-level lapse rates emanating from an EML over the central Plains spread eastward. With clouds/convective debris from the morning activity probably still present over parts of this region, the degree of instability that can develop is still somewhat uncertain. However, it does appear likely that additional robust thunderstorms will form by mid to late afternoon along/south of a front, as a weak/low-amplitude shortwave trough moves eastward across the OH Valley. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough for supercells with the initial development, and scattered large hail may be the initial severe hazard. With time, one or more bowing clusters will likely develop and spread southward/eastward through the late afternoon and early evening. As this mode transition occurs, severe/damaging winds will probably become the main threat. Although low-level winds are forecast to mostly veered to west-southwesterly and not overly strong, there may still be an opportunity for a tornado or two with any supercell that can be sustained. Given trends in 00Z guidance for greater instability and thunderstorm coverage across IN into eastern KY/southwestern OH and the central Appalachians, have expanded both the Marginal and Slight Risk areas east-northeastward to encompass this potential severe threat. ...Southern Plains... Similar to the last few days, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop once again late this afternoon and evening along/east of a dryline that will be located across parts of west TX. While deep-layer shear is forecast to remain quite modest, strong to very strong instability is forecast owing to robust daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass, and the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. Although convection that develops may tend to be fairly disorganized, the ample instability should aid in the development of robust updrafts and compensate to some extent for the weak deep-layer shear. A Slight Risk has been added where the greatest concentration of convection is forecast, with both large hail and severe wind gusts possible. The Marginal Risk has also been expanded eastward to include more of central into south-central TX, as some guidance suggests convection emanating from northern Mexico may persist and pose some severe risk into these areas through the evening. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 05/08/2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 8, 2023 Share Posted May 8, 2023 ILN with a bit of a novel concerning severe threat. Quote .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The main concern for the forecast is the potential for strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening. Quieter conditions are expected this morning. Early this morning, the ILN CWA remains in a relative minimum in convective activity across the region. The surface pressure pattern is very nebulous over the area, with some subtle ridging just upstream at 700mb, leading to subsidence. The SPC mesoanalysis also depicts some CIN over the region, and theta-e advection aloft remains well off to the west. This will lead to largely dry conditions through the morning, and PoPs have been tightened up to keep things dry (or in just the slight chance PoP range) for the next 6-9 hours or so. An MCS currently moving into Illinois will eventually outrun its source of theta-e and forcing, as it is expected to largely decay as it moves southeast through Indiana after 14Z. No impacts are expected in the ILN CWA as a result of this MCS. Mostly cloudy conditions are expected today, though depending on the MCS evolution, some breaks are possible. Max temps today will have a bit of a gradient, with upper 70s in the south and lower 70s in the north. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... By afternoon, behind the morning MCS, an area of surface low pressure is expected to be tracking eastward across northern Illinois. Ahead of this low, there will be a considerable amount of well-pronounced theta-e advection -- not just right at the surface, but through at least 850mb. In the southwestern ILN CWA (Cincinnati and vicinity) surface dewpoints should get into the mid 60s, with precipitable water values of around an inch and a quarter. Mid-level lapse rates will also be steepening considerably through the afternoon, with a plume of lapse rates greater than 7 C/km advecting into the area after 21Z. These thermodynamic parameters will be maximized over the southeastern ILN CWA, where SBCAPE values of around 2000 J/kg are expected. A gradient in instability will exist from there to the north, with SBCAPE below 1000 J/kg on the northern periphery of the forecast area. One thing that could reduce the expected instability somewhat is if clouds associated with the morning MCS remain overlaid across the area, or even if some showers end up moving into. If so, this could limit surface heating. As it is, low-level lapse rates are not expected to be particularly impressive today. Within this generally-favorable thermodynamic environment, forcing is gradually expected to increase this afternoon, ahead of the surface low that will be moving eastward. 00Z CAM guidance supports convective timing across the ILN CWA (from northwest to southeast) from about 21Z-04Z. Interestingly, the 06Z HRRR is a couple hours delayed from this projection. There does seem to be a bit of spread in the guidance regarding the strength, timing, and position of the surface low -- so this will be one important part of the forecast that will need to be refined as the morning progresses. In terms of specific forcing for the storms, they are likely to develop ahead of the surface frontal boundary -- perhaps on a pre-frontal trough, or perhaps more closely tied to the 850mb theta-e advection. SPC has placed approximately two-thirds of the forecast area in a SLGT risk for all modes of severe weather. The parameter space for this event would indicate the potential for some discrete supercell development, followed by eventual upscale growth into broken clusters or line segments. At 00Z, 0-6km shear will be out of the WNW at about 40-45 knots, and 0-1km shear will be out of the SW at about 15 knots. Shear and instability are both supportive of organized storms, with the potential for large hail and damaging winds. With the surface low in the vicinity, there is also enough directional shear to present some concern for tornadoes, with some modest curvature to the hodographs. With that said, there are also some limiting factors against tornado development -- poor low-level lapse rates, marginal LCL values (3500-4000 feet AGL), and a generally weak magnitude to the surface flow. Overall, the SPC forecast -- 15% for wind and hail, and a more uncertain 2% for tornado -- appears to match the ILN thinking this morning. As is often the case in these scenarios, the thermodynamic parameters are more favorable further to the south, and the shear and helicity parameters are more favorable further to the north. The overlap between the two will be an important forecast consideration. There is also a marginal risk for heavy rain and localized flooding, but with convection expected to be moving at a reasonable speed, this would likely be dependent on training storms. A surface cold front will trail the surface low and sweep through the forecast area late tonight, bringing an end to the main round of showers and storms. Beyond this, forecast confidence is surprisingly low regarding the departure of this surface low, and a 500mb trough that will be rotating behind it through the Great Lakes. For example, at 12Z Tuesday morning, will the low be over Cleveland (00Z GFS) or Pittsburgh (00Z NAM) or West Virginia (06Z HRRR)? Similar to the HRRR, other 00Z CAMS are more progressive and south with the low as well, but also produce activity under the 500mb trough after 12Z in central Ohio. Far too much of this forecast is dependent on convective evolution over the span of the next 24-36 hours to say with any certainty how this will evolve, so for now broad-brushed PoPs will remain in place across the southern and eastern portion so the CWA through Tuesday morning. On Tuesday, regardless of the exact position of the low, cold advection is favored -- and highs will likely drop to the mid 60s to mid 70s across the forecast area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 8, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 8, 2023 (edited) 3 straight days of being a marginal or slight here. Starting to feel like May. Though I will say I think Thursday looks very questionable. Was surprised when we had the day 5 slight, and was surprised again when there were no big changes with the new day 4 slight. Thought it would be gone by now. As someone new to the Plains, it's been fun to watch the dryline go back and forth the past two nights. Come in with the dew point in the 20s, a couple hours later it's in the 50s. It'd be more fun if 50 dew points felt like anything to me, but both still feel dry to me. People that have been here for a while can feel the difference I guess. Edited May 8, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 8, 2023 Share Posted May 8, 2023 (edited) I don't take much stock in long range models, but they are consistently showing a garbage pattern for most of the rest of the month. Got a marginal here today and another one tomorrow, hopefully Thursday can do something because it might be a while before we have another chance after that. Edited May 8, 2023 by ElectricStorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 8, 2023 Author Share Posted May 8, 2023 7 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said: I don't take much stock in long range models, but they are consistently showing a garbage pattern for most of the rest of the month. Got a marginal here today and another one tomorrow, hopefully Thursday can do something because it might be a while before we have another chance after that. Even the Ensembles are showing a lull in Mid-May, before things pick back up in Late May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 8, 2023 Author Share Posted May 8, 2023 I hope that May 14th is not crazy, May 25th, 2011 (El Reno EF-5 AKA "Oklahoma's forgotten EF-5") and April 25th, 2016 has showed up as an analog there. https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=GP&fhr=F132&rundt=2023050812&map=thbSVR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 8, 2023 Share Posted May 8, 2023 1 hour ago, Iceresistance said: I hope that May 14th is not crazy, May 25th, 2011 (El Reno EF-5 AKA "Oklahoma's forgotten EF-5") and April 25th, 2016 has showed up as an analog there. https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=GP&fhr=F132&rundt=2023050812&map=thbSVR Looking at model runs I highly doubt it. Probably will be severe weather somewhere like most days in May but shouldn't be anything crazy. Some of these early CIPS runs can add some random big days in there, I bet they'll be gone in the next few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 9, 2023 Author Share Posted May 9, 2023 1 hour ago, ElectricStorm said: Looking at model runs I highly doubt it. Probably will be severe weather somewhere like most days in May but shouldn't be anything crazy. Some of these early CIPS runs can add some random big days in there, I bet they'll be gone in the next few runs. If it was for May 11th (Thursday), then it would be more believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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