Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 6, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 6, 2023 (edited) 6z GFS says the TX/OK Panhandles will be an interesting place to be Wednesday. We'll see. It's certainly the only model showing something noteworthy here. The real test will be when NAM gets into range. Edited May 6, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 6, 2023 Share Posted May 6, 2023 Today is one those days that could surprise in Iowa & Missouri to the Ohio Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 6, 2023 Share Posted May 6, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 6, 2023 Share Posted May 6, 2023 1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said: Today is one those days that could surprise in Iowa & Missouri to the Ohio Valley Marginal area was expanded to the IN/OH border probably for the overnight stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 6, 2023 Share Posted May 6, 2023 Enhanced risk added for the northern area tomorrow. Slight risk added for S OK/N TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted May 6, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 6, 2023 The pattern seems hopeless here, storms everywhere but here. Every time it looks like a good signal it trends away from us in the last 24 hours. Wichita is about 5 inches below normal on the year so far and that doesn't include the drought we were in heading into the year. Crazy to think a year ago we had our 2nd wettest May on record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 6, 2023 Share Posted May 6, 2023 New tornado watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 6, 2023 Share Posted May 6, 2023 Confirmed tornado in SD. Quote BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 507 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023 The National Weather Service in Aberdeen has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Deuel County in northeastern South Dakota... Southeastern Grant County in northeastern South Dakota... * Until 530 PM CDT. * At 501 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 6 miles south of Strandburg, or 14 miles south of Milbank, moving northeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. At 501 PM CDT a tornado was reported 6 miles south of Strandburg. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * The tornado will be near... Stockholm and La Bolt around 515 PM CDT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 6, 2023 Share Posted May 6, 2023 (edited) Just now, snowlover2 said: Confirmed tornado in SD. confirmed tornado near Hayes Center, NE, a long way from the risk areas. also, this Edited May 6, 2023 by Chinook 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 6, 2023 Share Posted May 6, 2023 Tornado warning in MN and one actually in the watch in N MO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 6, 2023 Share Posted May 6, 2023 The tornado warned storm between Brownwood and Rising Star TX had a strong velocity signature several minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 Massive hail core in S NE, isn't even in the general t storm area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 two supercells right next to each other in Missouri. One of them used to have a tornado warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 you can see the double overshooting tops in Missouri. new tornado warning right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 7, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 7, 2023 Forgot to fill in the template... classic. Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 836 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023 MOC115-070145- /O.CON.KEAX.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-230507T0145Z/ Linn MO- 836 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL LINN COUNTY... At 836 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Linneus, or 9 miles northwest of Brookfield, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and two inch hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. ** ENTER LOCATIONS **!. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Brookfield, Linneus and Purdin. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3978 9305 3988 9327 3991 9327 3994 9326 3996 9319 3994 9298 TIME...MOT...LOC 0136Z 287DEG 27KT 3990 9317 TORNADO...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN Nasty mid-level meso Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 Yes this storm had the tornado observed at 8:45 (Eastern) and now as of almost 9:45 it looks like a very strong meso at roughly 9000 ft above ground... because, radar holes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 Did anyone post Reed's intercept of the MO wedge?? It was absolutely massive! Ignore if posted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 (edited) Tornado occurred at 843pm central (943pm eastern) at about the time of the post seen above. Andy Hill youtube stream said chaser saw a power flash at 8:36 central. Edited May 7, 2023 by Chinook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 39 minutes ago, Grace said: Did anyone post Reed's intercept of the MO wedge?? It was absolutely massive! Ignore if posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 (edited) This has been a fascinating weather day. I thought it was going to be generally uneventful double slight risk, based on yesterday's SPC day-2 outlook Edited May 7, 2023 by Chinook 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 Looks like a mcs could form tonight and head my way. Love this time of year⛈️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 30 minutes ago, Chinook said: This has been a fascinating weather day. I thought it was going to be generally uneventful double slight risk, based on yesterday's SPC day-2 outlook This is the type of pattern that escalate really quickly either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 Wow 😲 Goes to show how pretty much any given day in May can produce a monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 Severe warned storms just north of Indy now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 7, 2023 Share Posted May 7, 2023 New day 1. There is a suggestion of a possible slight risk for wind being added for the OH/TN Valley areas. Quote Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sun May 07 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA...EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS...MUCH OF IOWA...FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND EXTREME WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with very large hail, hurricane force gusts, and isolated tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Mid Missouri Valley today. Severe wind/hail producing storms will also be possible in parts of the central and southern Plains, perhaps extending into parts of the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley and central Appalachians. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place east of the MS River as a mid-level trough slowly traverses the Interior West today. Multiple mid-level impulses will crest the ridge through the period, supporting the development of multiple MCSs across the Mid MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys and central Appalachians. Meanwhile, surface lee troughing and northward low-level moisture advection will persist across the Plains states. A dryline will gradually push eastward through the afternoon, initiating strong to severe thunderstorms in a very unstable environment. ...Mid MS Valley... Ahead of the surface lee trough, a diffuse warm front will stall across eastern NE into IA and western IL by afternoon. Along and south of the warm front, mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints overspread by 8.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates (resulting in over 4000 J/kg MLCAPE) will characterize the warm sector. Veering and strengthening vertical wind profiles along the warm front will also support sizable, curved hodographs, especially in central IA. The approach of a mid-level impulse and strong surface heating will support isolated supercell development by late afternoon along the warm front. Very large hail and a few tornadoes will be the initial threats with these storms, and a strong (EF2+) tornado cannot be ruled out. Around and just after sunset, several thunderstorms are expected to initiate along the surface lee trough/warm front intersection in eastern NE/extreme northeast KS. While large hail may accompany these storms, rapid upscale growth should result in the development of an intense MCS, with severe winds becoming the main threat. It is possible that a classic bow-echo MCS may develop by evening, supporting widespread severe winds (with a few gusts exceeding 65 kts possible). However, confidence in this scenario is too low for the introduction of higher wind probabilities at this time. ...OH/TN Valleys into the central Appalachians... Multiple MCSs will track across areas east of the MS river into the OH/TN Valleys through the forecast period. At the start of the day (12Z), an MCS is poised to be moving southeast across the OH Valley. This MCS will approach the central Appalachians by early afternoon, preceded by 6.5-7.5 C/km low-level lapse rates, contributing to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Given modest line-normal speed shear, the MCS may remain organized enough to produce a couple of damaging gusts through the morning/early afternoon hours before dissipating. Latest guidance consensus depicts a second MCS developing along the eastern fringes of a low-level warm-air advection regime somewhere along the MS river into the OH/TN Valley areas by mid-afternoon, when surface heating will have boosted surface temperatures to near 80 F amid upper 60s F dewpoints, overspread by 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates. 2500 J/kg SBCAPE amid 30+ kts of effective bulk shear will precede this second MCS, supporting a threat for at least isolated damaging gusts. The primary mitigating factor for introducing higher wind probabilities this outlook over the OH/TN Valleys is the uncertainty of placement and timing of the second MCS. ...Southern Plains... Rapid thunderstorm development is likely by afternoon peak heating ahead of the dryline across portions of western TX. Initial updrafts will benefit from over 4000 J/kg MLCAPE, driven by steep low and mid-level lapse rates. Effective bulk shear should remain modest (i.e. under 30 kts), with multicells and perhaps a few supercells likely initially. Large hail will be the main threat early on. However, storms should quickly become outflow dominant given weak low-level shear, with cold pool mergers anticipated. Upscale growing clusters will support severe wind gusts as the primary threat. Similar to the previous day, northward surging outflow from decaying storms will promote damaging gust potential into southern and central OK by evening. ...Northern High Plains... Boundary-layer mixing and upslope flow along the Black Hills of western SD will support thunderstorm development by afternoon peak heating. These storms will progress eastward amid 7.5-8.5 C/km low-level lapse rates and modest speed shear, contributing to elongated, straight hodographs. Any storms that can mature and sustain themselves may take on multicellular or transient supercellular characteristics with the potential to produce a severe gust or two before nocturnal cooling/boundary-layer stabilization sets in around sunset. ..Squitieri/Lyons.. 05/07/2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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