Iceresistance Posted May 3, 2023 Author Share Posted May 3, 2023 (edited) NWS-Tulsa is thinking that Sunday (May 7th) and Monday (May 8th) could have severe storms instead of Saturday (May 6th) and Sunday Edited May 3, 2023 by Iceresistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 3, 2023 Author Share Posted May 3, 2023 Holy bejeebers, that is beyond insane. (Most Unstable CAPE, it's in the 6000s!) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 3, 2023 Author Share Posted May 3, 2023 (edited) I thought that CAPE over 7000 was physically impossible O_O Edited May 3, 2023 by Iceresistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 3, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 3, 2023 (edited) Had a couple severe warnings in the Panhandles yesterday. The climate difference is kinda funny to me… dew point was in the low 50s and people were talking about how it’s a more humid airmass. It does feel a bit heavier, but definitely doesn’t feel humid. To be fair, obviously, I’m still accustomed to Ohio humidity. Also, PWATs were around an inch which is close to the climatological maximum for this time of year. Another marginal risk today but I’m definitely not sold on storms developing in the first place. If they do, sure, marginal. But I dunno. Edited May 3, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 3, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 3, 2023 I’ve seen the ‘99 Bridge Creek-Moore tornado on DOW before but I haven’t seen it with a modernized color table. Pretty crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 3, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 3, 2023 (edited) To my surprise, looks like we have a storm trying to develop west of here. See how long it can last though. If it can sustain, got 2000 sbcape, 1000 mlcape, 1200-1400 downdraft cape, and 25-30 knots effective shear. Good for a strong to severe storm. Edited May 3, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 3, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 3, 2023 Well then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted May 4, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 4, 2023 34 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Well then Could use a report out of any of those storms. I went hail near Dumas for my severe forecast contest today. I was like "There always seems to be a random hail report near there" lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 4, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 4, 2023 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Ingyball said: Could use a report out of any of those storms. I went hail near Dumas for my severe forecast contest today. I was like "There always seems to be a random hail report near there" lol I've quickly learned how much of an issue population density is here for verifying reports. If this area was more densely populated... oh boy. Good luck to you, was a good play if storms developed. Saw the better signal for storms up in the Oklahoma Panhandle but that was still pretty weak. Looks like it panned out. Not a terrible environment for that cell near Dumas. Could be moving into better shear but that sucker is moving slow. Edited May 4, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 4, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 4, 2023 View of the Dumas cell from my apartment right now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 4, 2023 Author Share Posted May 4, 2023 This is unrelated, but there is a special topic on the Wayback Machine here for today in 1999. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted May 4, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 4, 2023 15 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: I've quickly learned how much of an issue population density is here for verifying reports. If this area was more densely populated... oh boy. Good luck to you, was a good play if storms developed. Saw the better signal for storms up in the Oklahoma Panhandle but that was still pretty weak. Looks like it panned out. Not a terrible environment for that cell near Dumas. Could be moving into better shear but that sucker is moving slow. Yeah I've gone with no reports a couple of times in marginal events for western Texas just because of the sparse population but there's always a couple of reports lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 4, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 4, 2023 (edited) This Dumas cell is just a little northeast of where a fire burned 8000 acres just a month ago. I think this is my first truly discrete severe storm in the area. First of many. Edited May 4, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted May 4, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 4, 2023 Alright got a Ping Pong ball sized hail report just south of Dumas. That'll do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 4, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 4, 2023 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Ingyball said: Alright got a Ping Pong ball sized hail report just south of Dumas. That'll do. There ya go. I think that's our largest hail report so far this year. Only other event that could've topped it was from the supercell ahead of the late February derecho, but I don't think there was hail that large. Pretty pathetic start to the season but we are coming out of a 3-year Nina/significant drought. Edited May 4, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted May 4, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 4, 2023 Just now, ClicheVortex2014 said: There ya go. I think that's our largest hail report so far this year. Only other event that could've topped it was from the supercell ahead of the late February derecho, but I don't think there was hail that large. I didn't go very high on hail for our office seasonal contest, we can get big hail through May, but it can be difficult. I think I went baseballs. Well that turned into a miss. The supercell I warned on on the 19th ended up producing 4 inch hail to go with the tornadoes lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 4, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 4, 2023 Just now, Ingyball said: I didn't go very high on hail for our office seasonal contest, we can get big hail through May, but it can be difficult. I think I went baseballs. Well that turned into a miss. The supercell I warned on on the 19th ended up producing 4 inch hail to go with the tornadoes lol. So what you're saying is, you didn't have much doubt about putting a warning on it 😂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted May 4, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 4, 2023 Just now, ClicheVortex2014 said: So what you're saying is, you didn't have much doubt about putting a warning on it 😂 Thankfully I had a warning on it already (our showers that day were producing golf balls ROFL). Had it warned for 2 inch hail then got a baseball report, saw the meso continue to strengthen and said screw it and went with 3" hail the rest of the severe and then tor warnings. When we went onto the damage survey one of the people we talked with said they measured 4" hail, which killed me a tiny bit inside because 3" would have netted me some points still. I wasn't surprised though, it was a really mean meso for a good while. Was seeing it clearly up to 20,000 to 25,000 feet lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 4, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 4, 2023 (edited) Eastern warning here is for ping pong hail. Could add to Ingy's total. Storms definitely could pack a punch today, just a question if they'd develop. Edited May 4, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted May 4, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Eastern warning here is for ping pong hail. Could add to Ingy's total. Storms definitely could pack a punch today, just a question if they'd develop. Unfortunately more sub sig hail won't add to my total (unless it's closer to my forecast point, but I don't remember my exact location), but if I can get a sig hail report out of it, that's more points for me as long as it comes within 35 miles of my forecast point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 4, 2023 Author Share Posted May 4, 2023 (edited) Looks like Y'all are having fun, I will get the storms later tonight and into tomorrow morning. Then, prepare for the afternoon convection with the Supercell potential. Edited May 4, 2023 by Iceresistance Typo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 4, 2023 Author Share Posted May 4, 2023 @ClicheVortex2014 Something is trying to develop west of Amarillo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 4, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 4, 2023 26 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Looks like Y'all are having fun, I will get the storms later tonight and into tomorrow morning. Then, prepare for the afternoon convection with the Supercell potential. Yeah this omega block pattern was good for these marginal risk days because the weak shortwaves were too... well... weak. Tomorrow is when it breaks down and it looks like the dryline will mix too far east too quickly for the Texas Panhandle. Might get initiation there but should get going in Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 4, 2023 Author Share Posted May 4, 2023 1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Yeah this omega block pattern was good for these marginal risk days because the weak shortwaves were too... well... weak. Tomorrow is when it breaks down and it looks like the dryline will mix too far east too quickly for the Texas Panhandle. Might get initiation there but should get going in Oklahoma. The Panhandle really needed the rainfall, so this is going to be a huge blessing for Spring. It may have saved the Winter Wheat in the nick of time for most farmers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 4, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted May 4, 2023 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: The Panhandle really needed the rainfall, so this is going to be a huge blessing for Spring. It may have saved the Winter Wheat in the nick of time for most farmers. April was easily the closest the Panhandles have gotten to a wet month at least since I've been here. It certainly helps but it's gonna take a while to erase the drought. Especially in the Oklahoma Panhandle. Right now the "hope" is that we at least get some rain so that the dryline doesn't keep us in the dry sector during the wet season. Not off to a great start. Edited May 4, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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