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May 2 - 16, 2023 | Severe Weather Sequence


Iceresistance

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Wasn't really expecting a long-tracker today but this has been down for a little while now with no signs of letting up.
Also not a big fan of the way that storm to the south of this one is organizing, could be a pretty bad situation here soon. 

Screenshot2023-05-12175253.thumb.png.8fd9ac260abfb961aff1f6354f0a6653.png

Edited by Neoncyclone
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  • Meteorologist

What a system. It's beautiful but it's created so much damage via tornadoes. 36 tornado reports today, 24 yesterday, and 13 on Wednesday. That strong tornado earlier obviously did damage... almost certainly the strongest of this 3-day event.

CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-subregional-Cen_Plains-dcphase-00_46Z-20230513_map_noBar-48-1n-5-100.gif

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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some of the nastiest Nebraska tornadoes in recent history have happened near Pilger and Lincoln.  Because, you know, the famous double tornadoes near Pilger. And then tonight. (not shown obviously.) And then maybe some other red F4/EF4(s) in there.

 

tornado archive2.jpg

Edited by Chinook
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I could not sleep properly last night, it was the Midnight Madness with all that lightning last night. I got 1.1 inches from it though. More coming hopefully. DFW literally got nothing from what it looks like a force field over the Metroplex.
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Quote
Mesoscale Discussion 0786
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1201 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023

   Areas affected...Iowa into far northeast Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 131701Z - 131900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...T-storm coverage and intensity is expected during the
   18-20 UTC period across Iowa into far northeast Missouri. These
   storms will likely pose a risk for large hail, severe winds, and a
   few tornadoes. A watch will likely be needed to address this
   concern.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations depict a warm front draped
   from northeast IA southeastward into far northeast MO. On the cool
   side of this boundary, eroding cloud cover has allowed for
   temperatures to begin warming into the low to mid 70s with further
   heating/destabilization expected through mid afternoon as clouds
   continue to slowly clear amid weak subsidence noted in low-level
   water-vapor imagery. Modified observed and forecast soundings across
   central to eastern IA suggest that while buoyancy profiles remain
   somewhat modest, the low-level warming is eroding mixed-layer
   inhibition. Initial convective initiation along the warm front,
   where mesoscale lift and diurnal warming is greatest, has been noted
   south of Des Moines over the past 20 minutes, lending credence to
   recent CAM solutions that hint at more widespread convective
   initiation within the next 2-3 hours. 

   As thunderstorms develop, storm motions and deep-layer shear vectors
   orthogonal to the warm front should support initially discrete storm
   modes. VWP observations from KDMX (to the north of the front where
   low-level flow is backed to the southeast) show sufficient low-level
   curvature for around 100-150 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. Forecast soundings
   hint that strong shear in the 1-6 km layer will favor elongated
   hodographs favorable for splitting supercells. Consequently,
   organized convection appears likely with an attendant large hail,
   severe wind, and tornado threat. The quality of destabilization (and
   subsequently the severe threat) becomes less certain with
   east/northeast extent; however, a watch will likely be needed to
   address the developing severe threat.

   ..Moore/Mosier.. 05/13/2023

 

mcd0786.png

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Quote
 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 222
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1225 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Southern Illinois
     Far East-Central Missouri

   * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM
     until 700 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Line of thunderstorms currently moving across far
   east-central MO is expected to continue eastward into the unstable
   airmass across southern IL. A threat for damaging gusts and large
   hail will accompany the strongest storms within this line.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
   statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles northwest of
   Saint Louis MO to 40 miles northeast of Salem IL. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   27030.

   ...Mosier

 

ww0222_radar.gif

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Tornado watch up in IA.

Quote
 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 223
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1255 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Iowa

   * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM
     until 700 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
     Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in intensity and
   coverage in the vicinity of a warm front that extends from northwest
   through southeast IA. Environmental conditions support supercells
   capable of hail and tornadoes.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 25 miles northwest of Storm Lake IA
   to 55 miles east of Ottumwa IA. For a complete depiction of the
   watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 222...

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
   storm motion vector 22020.

   ...Mosier

 

ww0223_radar.gif

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Confirmed tornado over Pleasantville IA.

Quote
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
129 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023

IAC125-181-131845-
/O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-230513T1845Z/
Marion IA-Warren IA-
129 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN MARION AND EASTERN WARREN COUNTIES...

At 129 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Pleasantville, or
9 miles northwest of Knoxville, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Pleasantville and Lake Red Rock.

 

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Storm report says it's a multi-vortex tornado.

Quote
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
125 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     TORNADO          3 SW PLEASANTVILLE      41.37N 93.31W
05/13/2023                   MARION             IA   STORM CHASER

            MULTI-VORTEX TORNADO REPORTED.

 

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