Chinook Posted April 17, 2023 Share Posted April 17, 2023 (edited) 15 hours ago, Iceresistance said: Some BIG outbreaks are part of the CIPS analog for April 21st: April 22nd, 1996, April 19th, 2011, and May 21st, 2001. https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SP&fhr=F132&rundt=2023041612&map=thbSVR There are so many things that remind me that 2011 was nuts. A few years ago I tried to use the SPC storm reports tabulation (monthly storm reports list) to try to find out how many wind, hail, and tornado reports could be expected every month of the year. I had to remove 2011 from the data to get something kind of normal. updated (also not including the whole year of 2011 for all report types) updated (also not including the whole year of 2011 for all report types). This also means that if there aren't 146 hail plus wind on a given day in June, then it's below the average. Although you could say that in any given month, the average is a representation of some very active days averaged with some mostly inactive days. So, maybe some statistician out there would point out that a median could be different from an average in that situation. Edited April 17, 2023 by Chinook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 17, 2023 Author Share Posted April 17, 2023 (edited) 32 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said: Latest mid-long range GFS is disgusting... Sends the cold front way into the gulf, restricting moisture return pretty much the entire rest of the month, with perhaps a small exception towards the end of the month. Ew May is going to have to clutch up Yeah, the Arctic Oscillation is taking a nosedive, which may explain why the GFS drives the front completely into the GoM. ETA: GEFS gets the front into Cuba and Central Mexico, goodness gracious. Edited April 17, 2023 by Iceresistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 An upgrade to the west? So you're saying there's a chance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 18, 2023 Author Share Posted April 18, 2023 5 hours ago, ElectricStorm said: An upgrade to the west? So you're saying there's a chance... RGEM could be the reason here, completely develops the storms along the dry line on the 19th, the FV3 has some in near Wichita Falls, TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 18, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted April 18, 2023 There are some eye candy NAM soundings just west of Wichita for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 (edited) There is a large 500mb trough coming into the western USA, which usually sets up severe weather. So far there does not seem to be a lot of tornado potential. There are not any enhanced risk areas issued. Obviously the capping situation in Kansas/Oklahoma could get interesting if the storms develop with the much better parameters. The CAMs today seem to like the idea of storms popping on the cold front near Omaha, with generally lower values of 850mb wind/0-3km SRH. If the storms fire up around here, they will have (only) 30kt to 40kt shear, generally lining up with the cold front orientation, which means there should be sort of a generic chance for severe weather in multicells or a squall line. Storms that go later into the night could end up using a much better 0-3km SRH if they have surface updrafts, so that's a typical scenario as you go from 00z to 06z. Edited April 18, 2023 by Chinook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 18, 2023 Share Posted April 18, 2023 By the way, you can listen to Broyles talk for 46 min about EF5 tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 18, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted April 18, 2023 Convection fail. Was only a small chance it'd happen anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 18, 2023 Author Share Posted April 18, 2023 41 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Convection fail. Was only a small chance it'd happen anyway. It's either the Inversion, poor moisture, or no forcing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 19, 2023 Share Posted April 19, 2023 The 12km NAM has the moisture a little farther west at 00z tomorrow. 00z HRRR does much of the same stuff with the squall line, but who knows if that's the most helpful thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
voltwaffle Posted April 19, 2023 Share Posted April 19, 2023 New day 1 outlook is interesting. It is warm already; 65 with a dewpoint of 58. I can see it but there's tons of clouds in and out all night. Might be another cap bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 19, 2023 Author Share Posted April 19, 2023 12 minutes ago, voltwaffle said: New day 1 outlook is interesting. It is warm already; 65 with a dewpoint of 58. I can see it but there's tons of clouds in and out all night. Might be another cap bust. Yeah, the latest sounding from OUN has a insane inversion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 19, 2023 Author Share Posted April 19, 2023 5/30/2004 made onto the analog https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SP&fhr=F024&rundt=2023041900&map=thbSVR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 19, 2023 Author Share Posted April 19, 2023 12z FV3 has a Supercell in Oklahoma City, that is actually kinda terrifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 19, 2023 Share Posted April 19, 2023 15 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Convection fail. Was only a small chance it'd happen anyway. I can see the cumulus congestus fade away to nothing there. Honestly, kind of neat to watch all the processes on satellite. I wonder why you pick the non-realistic coloration (clouds are mint green.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 19, 2023 Author Share Posted April 19, 2023 12z GFS sounding over OKC for later today, yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 19, 2023 Author Share Posted April 19, 2023 Geez, this is getting insane for a conditional setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 19, 2023 Share Posted April 19, 2023 They added a 5% tor area for OK now. Interesting... I'm just not seeing it right now but they must see something I'm not. I think this will be another cap bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 19, 2023 Author Share Posted April 19, 2023 4 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said: They added a 5% tor area for OK now. Interesting... I'm just not seeing it right now but they must see something I'm not. I think this will be another cap bust. They noticed the Mesoscale models with storms in SW Oklahoma, also, the inversion is trending weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted April 19, 2023 Share Posted April 19, 2023 19z HRRR picked up on the central Oklahoma supercell, will be interesting to see this unfold in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted April 19, 2023 Share Posted April 19, 2023 (edited) 19z sounding out of Norman As you can see the cap has almost entirely eroded, theres a nice moist layer in the 1km, instability building. I could definitely see a couple all-hazards supercells firing. Edited April 19, 2023 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted April 19, 2023 Share Posted April 19, 2023 Here's an OAX sounding for the northern storms, that's a hail sounding if i've ever seen one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 19, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted April 19, 2023 5 hours ago, Chinook said: I can see the cumulus congestus fade away to nothing there. Honestly, kind of neat to watch all the processes on satellite. I wonder why you pick the non-realistic coloration (clouds are mint green.) The green is foliage, but it's the natural color-fire setting. I was checking for fires and forgot to switch it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted April 19, 2023 Share Posted April 19, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted April 19, 2023 Share Posted April 19, 2023 Got some showers going up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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