April 14 - 16, 2023 | Severe Storms

[Ingyball]

I might just be hyping the NAM up but I'd say don't sleep on Saturday, I think it has a lot more potential as the upper trough intensifies and takes on a negative orientation. Could be interesting from northern Arkansas to southern Iowa. The NAM has a pretty favorable upper jet alignment in southern Missouri as well. GFS does not, however, so definitely not an easy forecast. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

6 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Any rain? @ClicheVortex2014

Most any of the mesonet sites got was 0.07" which is more than expected. Only 2 other mesonet sites recorded anything... 0.01" and 0.02".

3 severe gusts along the gust front this evening, including 62 mph at the office. Had some virga that was responsible for a 67 mph gust well behind the gust front, considered that a non-thunderstorm gust.

Edited April 14, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[ElectricStorm]

Not even in the general t-storm risk now lol gotta love a classic southern plains cap bust. Hopefully the severe drought-stricken areas in KS can get some decent rain from this. 

Edited April 14, 2023 by ElectricStorm

[ClicheVortex2014]

12 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said:

Not even in the general t-storm risk now lol gotta love a classic southern plains cap bust. Hopefully the severe drought-stricken areas in KS can get some decent rain from this. 

Yeah that's rough.

Cap holding on too strong probably helped increase confidence enough for a day 2 enhanced. 30% hail and wind with a hatched hail for initial development. Seems they're buying the quick transition to linear.

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0113 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   SOUTHERN MISSOURI...ARKANSAS AND FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and
   damaging gusts are possible from the lower to mid Mississippi Valley
   westward into parts of the Ozarks, Ark-La-Tex and Sabine River
   Valley.

   ...Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex/Sabine River Valley...
   An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the southern Plains
   on Saturday, as an associated 60 to 75 mid-level jet moves through
   the base of the system. At the surface, a low is forecast to move
   into the mid Mississippi Valley, as a cold front advances eastward
   across western Kansas and western Oklahoma during the morning. Ahead
   of the front, low-level moisture will return northward into the
   Ozarks with 60+ surface dewpoints in place by midday across most of
   the region. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop quickly ahead of
   the cold front during the early to mid afternoon along and near the
   instability axis. These storms may organize into a broken line, and
   move eastward toward the Mississippi River during the late afternoon
   and evening.

   NAM forecast soundings by 21Z on Saturday from Springfield southward
   to near Little Rock have MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in
   the 35 to 40 knot range. The thermodynamic environment is impressive
   with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8.5 to 9.0 C/km range. This
   should be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones
   greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the stronger
   and more dominant supercells. The threat for very large hail is
   forecast to be greatest from southwest Missouri southward across
   much of western and central Arkansas, into northeast Texas and
   northwest Louisiana. Initially, the storms will likely be discrete
   resulting in the greater hail threat. However, a line of storms,
   along with a wind-damage threat, is expected to develop during the
   late afternoon. The line will move eastward toward the Mississippi
   River during the early evening, and will affect areas to the east
   during the overnight period. A tornado threat will be possible with
   supercells and bowing line segments.

   The models are now bringing the upper-level trough into the region
   slightly slower than previously forecast. This combined with faster
   moisture return will result in an instability axis further to the
   west. For this reason, have adjusted the Slight Risk westward. Also,
   an Enhanced Risk has been added along the zone where the severe
   threat is expected to be maximized from far southern Missouri
   southward into central Arkansas and far northern Louisiana.

 

Edited April 14, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[Ingyball]

I'm hoping we get some good rain here today, we'll see. Outside of that I'm also hoping to get some good pics from my west with decent storm structure as well as lightning. 

[snowlover2]

Updated day 2 sees the slight risk expanded to SE IA and enhanced expanded more into MO. They mention up to baseball size hail possible.

Quote

 Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1245 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
   MISSOURI SOUTHWARD TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms -- capable of producing large to very large
   hail and damaging wind gusts, as well as a couple of tornadoes --
   are possible from Missouri and the Mid-Mississippi Valley, southward
   to the Lower Mississippi and Sabine Valleys.

   ...Synopsis...
   As a weakening upper low over the Mid-Atlantic region shifts
   northeastward, a larger trough exiting the Rockies is forecast to
   move steadily eastward across the Plains, gradually acquiring
   negative tilt as it advances.

   At the surface, a cold front associated with the western U.S. upper
   trough should lie initially from the western Upper Great Lakes
   region southwestward into the southern Plains.  The boundary is
   forecast to advance eastward with time, with cyclogenesis forecast
   to occur along the baroclinic zone across the Mid-Mississippi Valley
   area during the second half of the period.  As the low moves
   northward toward Lake Michigan overnight, the trailing portion of
   the cold front is progged to surge southeastward across
   Missouri/Arkansas/Louisiana through the evening.  By Saturday
   morning, the front should extend from the Lower Ohio and Tennessee
   Valleys to the central Gulf Coast states.

   ...Missouri and the Mid-Mississippi Valley south to the Sabine and
   lower Mississippi Valleys...
   A complex convective evolution is apparent for Friday across a
   region centered near/just west of the middle and lower Mississippi
   Valleys.  This will be in part due to a series of perturbations in
   the southern-stream flow field that are progged to be moving out of
   Texas, across the western Gulf of Mexico and Lower Mississippi
   Valley into the central Gulf Coast states through the first half of
   the period.

   Lingering convection associated with these perturbations may be
   ongoing at the start of the period across portions of eastern Texas
   and Louisiana into southern Arkansas, though CAM guidance differs on
   the exact location -- and degree -- of convective coverage early.

   Despite these differences, CAMs generally depict a midday increase
   in storms across the Lower Mississippi Valley to the central Gulf
   Coastal region, which seems reasonable as daytime heating helps
   boost surface-based CAPE, owing in part to steep mid-level lapse
   rates.

   Deep-layer shear is progged to decrease with southward extent, hence
   the gradient in probability lines across Louisiana.  However,
   potential for large hail and damaging winds -- and possibly a
   tornado -- should evolve across this area.  Uncertainty precludes
   substantial changes to the existing outlook across the area. 
   Adjustments in later outlooks may be needed, once Day 1 convective
   development across Texas -- associated with the aforementioned
   southern-stream energy -- becomes more clear.

   Farther north, as the upper system advances, the combination of very
   steep lapse rates aloft, and diurnal heating of a seasonably moist
   boundary layer (low 60s dewpoints into northern Missouri, to near 70
   into the southern Arkansas/Louisiana area) will occur.  This will
   result in a strongly unstable environment (2000 to 3000 J/kg
   mixed-layer CAPE).

   Storm development is expected to occur by mid afternoon, near and
   just ahead of the advancing cold front, from western and central
   Missouri southward into Arkansas.  Aided by roughly 30 kt
   south-southwesterlies at low levels veering weakly and increasing to
   35 to 45 kt from the southwest at mid levels, shear will favor
   supercells -- which will quickly become capable of producing very
   large hail in excess of tennis ball to baseball size.  While
   low-level shear is not progged to be excessive, a couple of these
   supercells may become capable of producing tornadoes.

   With time, convective development both northward and southward along
   the front is expected.  Upscale growth into an at least
   loosely-organized band or line is anticipated, extending from
   southeastern Iowa/western Illinois south-southwestward along the
   advancing front into the Sabine River Valley area.  As a result of
   this anticipated evolution, have expanded higher all-hazard
   probabilities northward in this outlook, into much of Missouri. 
   Along with continued risk for hail, damaging wind potential should
   increase during the evening -- particularly across the
   Missouri/Arkansas area.  

   Storms should diminish in intensity later in the evening, as they
   cross the Mid-Mississippi Valley, but farther south, may remain
   severe across Louisiana and into Mississippi through the evening and
   possibly into the overnight hours.

   ..Goss.. 04/14/2023

 

[Iceresistance]

Big line of storms coming towards you @Ingyball

 

(Right forum this time 😛 )

[Chinook]

There's just a bit of a squall line tonight. Today (4/14) is the anniversary of 4/14/12, the last high risk in Kansas.

[snowlover2]

Enhanced expanded into W IL on new day 1.

Quote

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1248 AM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms -- capable of producing large to very large
   hail and damaging wind gusts, as well as a couple of tornadoes --
   are possible from Missouri and the Mid-Mississippi Valley, southward
   to the Lower Mississippi Valley and upper Texas Coast.

   ...Mid MS Valley/AR...

   Pronounced mid-level short-wave trough is currently located over
   CO/NM. This feature will eject into the central/southern Plains as a
   strengthening 500mb speed max translates across central OK by early
   evening then into AR, increasing to near 85kt by the end of the
   period. In response to this feature, weak surface low is forecast to
   track from northern OK - northern MO - into northern IL Saturday
   evening. While the surface reflection is not expected to be
   particularly intense, 60F surface dew point should advance to near
   I70 across MO by 18z, perhaps surging into west-central IL by early
   evening ahead of the surface low.

   Early this morning, several clusters of thunderstorms have evolved
   over the central Plains region into western IA. Remnants of this
   activity should propagate into the mid MS Valley by the start of the
   day1 period and continue weakening as it spreads toward IL by mid
   day. Of more concern will be renewed convection that will evolve
   along/ahead of the surface low/cold front by early afternoon across
   eastern KS/western MO. Forecast soundings exhibit very steep
   surface-9km lapse rates which will aid buoyancy within a strongly
   sheared environment. MLCAPE values could approach 3000 J/kg across
   much of this region and supercells are expected to evolve fairly
   early ahead of the short wave. Deep-layer flow is somewhat veered so
   SRH values are not expected to be that strong. However, very large
   hail should be noted with the strongest supercells. As the front
   advances east, scattered convection may grow upscale into a QLCS
   with embedded supercells as it advances toward the MS River. Intense
    12hr mid-level height falls across the mid MS Valley during the
   overnight hours may encourage strong convection to surge a bit
   farther east across IL toward IN during the overnight hours. In
   addition to very large hail, damaging winds and the threat for at
   least a couple of tornado can be expected.

   ...Gulf Coast Region...

   Latest satellite imagery depicts a short-wave trough over northeast
   Mexico ejecting toward south TX, in line with latest model guidance.
   This feature is expected to contribute to an expanding cluster of
   convection that should propagate from the middle/upper TX Coast,
   east along/just offshore of the central Gulf Coast. Northern
   portions of this MCS should advance across the FL Panhandle during
   the mid/late afternoon. Hail/wind are the primary risks with this
   complex.

   Secondary convective development is possible later in the day along
   the trailing cold front as it surges into southeast TX. It's not
   clear how far southwest convection will develop along the boundary
   due to weak low-level convergence, but warm surface temperatures and
   steep low-level lapse rates may encourage isolated storms as far
   west as SAT by 16/00z. Hail will be the greatest risk with this
   secondary development.

   ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/15/2023

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

[Iceresistance]

MCV in Southern Mississippi

[StormfanaticInd]

Two severe warned storms in Missouri. Ping-pong ball hail reported 

[Iceresistance]

31 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Two severe warned storms in Missouri. Ping-pong ball hail reported 

They are undercut from producing a tornado though...

[Chinook]

a collection of cells now trying to look like supercells, near Springfield MO (as mentioned). Already there have been hail reports of 2-4"  by Lamar.

Edited April 15, 2023 by Chinook

[Iceresistance]

32 minutes ago, Chinook said:

a collection of cells now trying to look like supercells, near Springfield MO (as mentioned). Already there have been hail reports of 2-4"  by Lamar.

Saw a confirmed report of Baseballs in Bolivar and Softballs near Arcola (near Stockton Lake)

[FortySixAnd32]

Quite the Polygon formation!!!! 

[Iceresistance]

Crap, there is 2 inch hail coming into Springfield, MO right now... My great-grandparents are in Springfield, MO

[snowlover2]

One storm in C MO has baseball hail.

Quote

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Springfield MO
337 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

The National Weather Service in Springfield has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Miller County in central Missouri...
  Northern Pulaski County in central Missouri...
  East central Camden County in central Missouri...

* Until 430 PM CDT.

* At 336 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Lake Ozark to near Camdenton, moving east at 30
  mph.

  THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS FOR Tuscumba, Saint Elizabeth,
Iberia, Crocker, and Dixon Missouri areas.
.

  HAZARD...Baseball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

  IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured.
           Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs,
           siding, and vehicles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Lake of The Ozarks, Lake of The Ozarks State Park, Osage Beach,
  Lake Ozark, Dixon, Crocker, Iberia, Saint Elizabeth, St. Elizabeth,
  Tuscumbia, Bagnell, Brumley, Ulman, Freedom, Kaiser, Swedeborg,
  Marys Home, Montreal and Wet Glaize.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

These are dangerous storms. Prepare immediately for large destructive
hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should
move to shelter inside a strong building,  and stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3817 9219 3816 9218 3802 9218 3801 9202
      3789 9202 3791 9261 3825 9261 3834 9239
      3834 9229 3832 9225 3834 9220
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 248DEG 28KT 3817 9260 3795 9268

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

 

[snowlover2]

4" hail report a little earlier.

Quote

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
228 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     HAIL             5 SW ARCOLA             37.50N 93.94W
04/15/2023  E4.00 INCH       DADE               MO   PUBLIC

            TWITTER WITH PHOTOS. SOME 3 IN SOME 4 IN.

 

[snowlover2]

Quote

  URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 139
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   405 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Southwest Illinois
     Southeast Missouri

   * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until
     1000 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
       to 75 mph possible
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
       inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Supercells evolving into a cluster with embedded line
   segments is expected to spread east across the Mid-Mississippi
   Valley. Hail transitioning to damaging wind should be the main
   threat, but a couple embedded tornadoes are possible as well.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 40 miles northwest of Alton IL to 35
   miles east southeast of Poplar Bluff MO. For a complete depiction of
   the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
   WOU9).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 137...WW 138...

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
   storm motion vector 24035.

   ...Grams

 

[snowlover2]

Tornado warning north of Rolla MO.

[snowlover2]

Just now, snowlover2 said:

Tornado warning north of Rolla MO.

And tennis ball hail!

Quote

Quote

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Springfield MO
432 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

The National Weather Service in Springfield has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Eastern Maries County in central Missouri...
  Northeastern Phelps County in east central Missouri...

* Until 515 PM CDT.

* At 431 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Vienna, or 13 miles northwest of Rolla, moving
  northeast at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and tennis ball size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  Vichy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3829 9165 3815 9164 3815 9153 3803 9153
      3804 9191 3815 9197
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 239DEG 35KT 3813 9186

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN

 

 

[snowlover2]

3 tornado warnings in MO now.

[snowlover2]

Wow a 97mph wind gust at Vichy MO!

Quote

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
446 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NNW VICHY             38.13N 91.77W
04/15/2023  E97 MPH          MARIES             MO   ASOS

 

[snowlover2]

New tornado warning in SE MO.