Undertakerson2.0 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 2 hours ago, Rush said: Nice GFS run there. No one sees it lol Don't worry - it already changed. And will change several more times btwn then and now. Besides, since the get go, my wife has assured me that we'll be in the best area of anyone - we will be in SW NY state 😉 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 7 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Pivotal added the eclipse totality path and center line 🙂 Nice... was waiting for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 Would probably be more useful to look at ensembles at this point, but I've been paying attention to trends on the op GFS and most runs have had some kind of system/unsettled weather somewhere in the central and/or eastern US on April 8. Guess it would be kind of unreasonable to expect the entire eclipse path to be clear in early April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 28 Admin Share Posted March 28 15 hours ago, Hoosier said: Would probably be more useful to look at ensembles at this point, but I've been paying attention to trends on the op GFS and most runs have had some kind of system/unsettled weather somewhere in the central and/or eastern US on April 8. Guess it would be kind of unreasonable to expect the entire eclipse path to be clear in early April. I've been peeping this. It's getting me too optimistic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 28 Admin Share Posted March 28 Last year had a cloud pattern that might give almost everyone in the path a clear view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 28 Admin Share Posted March 28 These are encouraging. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 1 hour ago, MaineJay said: These are encouraging. Pouring over all the model data - at every level where moisture may obscure. Liking the trends over the past 48 hours for sure. 🙂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rush Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 (edited) 2 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Pouring over all the model data - at every level where moisture may obscure. Liking the trends over the past 48 hours for sure. 🙂 I am not liking this trend. Seems like a cold front might be moving through Texas that day. Need it to clear early enough to be behind it. NWS Dallas has a special eclipse forecast in their long range discussion. Some dynamical guidance continues to capture Monday, April 8, but the output is still skewed toward climatology. The vast majority of solutions keep North and Central Texas in the south flow regime following next week`s cold front. With a steadily moistening boundary layer, this would favor nocturnal/morning stratus. Climatology portends that early April stratus is unlikely to effectively erode. On those occasions that erosion occurs, it does so by midday (prior to eclipse time). If not, low clouds linger through the afternoon. Based on the dynamical output, GFS/CMC/ECMWF ensembles all demonstrate springtime stratus in their cloud probabilities. On the bright side, they all favor effective erosion, but climatology would place the eclipse-time cloud gradient near the path of totality. Edited March 28 by Rush 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 2 hours ago, Rush said: I am not liking this trend. Seems like a cold front might be moving through Texas that day. Need it to clear early enough to be behind it. NWS Dallas has a special eclipse forecast in their long range discussion. Some dynamical guidance continues to capture Monday, April 8, but the output is still skewed toward climatology. The vast majority of solutions keep North and Central Texas in the south flow regime following next week`s cold front. With a steadily moistening boundary layer, this would favor nocturnal/morning stratus. Climatology portends that early April stratus is unlikely to effectively erode. On those occasions that erosion occurs, it does so by midday (prior to eclipse time). If not, low clouds linger through the afternoon. Based on the dynamical output, GFS/CMC/ECMWF ensembles all demonstrate springtime stratus in their cloud probabilities. On the bright side, they all favor effective erosion, but climatology would place the eclipse-time cloud gradient near the path of totality. Their discussion demonstrates, in part, why I'm more optimistic when considering eroding stratus aspect and viewing RH and PWAT charts on the Ensembles. Weather World from PSU did an excellent WxYZ segment on this last night. While they also mention climo, they showed a GEFS/EENS map that had the zone I'll be in W NY to be <50 cloud. So I'll remain optimistic. It may come down to mere increments of an hour or so to make or break any given scenario (other than totally clear) Even with some clouds (as opposed to full on rain and deep layered deck) the effect in totality will be stunning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 6 hours ago, MaineJay said: These are encouraging. Things can certainly change, but it is starting to look like the climo play of viewing the eclipse in Texas may be more iffy than being much farther northeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Things can certainly change, but it is starting to look like the climo play of viewing the eclipse in Texas may be more iffy than being much farther northeast. Not sure if this is the correct cloud fraction to use to show how much cloud coverage will be at that time, but it does not look good for Texas and central states. Note, tropical tidbits could not give me any cloud fraction for the entire US in one shot. Only seems to be available on zoomed in regions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted March 28 Author Moderators Share Posted March 28 Something I pondered for years….how is it that the size and/or distance of the moon is just such that it perfectly covers the sun? I’ll create the thread in US Active Weather tomorrow AM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 1 minute ago, Hiramite said: Something I pondered for years….how is it that the size and/or distance of the moon is just such that it perfectly covers the sun? I’ll create the thread in US Active Weather tomorrow AM. It is wild, isn't it? Sun is about 400 times larger than the moon, but it's about 400 times farther away. Makes you wonder. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 31 minutes ago, Hiramite said: Something I pondered for years….how is it that the size and/or distance of the moon is just such that it perfectly covers the sun? I’ll create the thread in US Active Weather tomorrow AM. Yeah its wild considering the sun is around . Pretty much the same as someone photobombing your picture. Closer they are to the lens, the more you see of them rather than your subject. And something to ponder in that the sun is around 865,000 miles in diameter. Which means in order for the moon to eclipse it totally, the moon has to be extremely close to earth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rush Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 Every run is so different at this point. I am not too worried yet. Latest is a MaineJay special. All we can say right now is that there will be low pressure moving somewhere across the center of the country. Hopefully it speeds up 12-24 hours and can clear out the majority of the eclipse path. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 Was looking around for videos of total eclipses that had extensive cloudiness. Here's an example from 2017 where it gets quite dark... definitely darker than if the clouds had not been there. This would've been around 1 pm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 Nice animation to show what you will see from your location https://science.nasa.gov/eclipses/future-eclipses/eclipse-2024/where-when/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 2 hours ago, Rush said: Every run is so different at this point. I am not too worried yet. Latest is a MaineJay special. All we can say right now is that there will be low pressure moving somewhere across the center of the country. Hopefully it speeds up 12-24 hours and can clear out the majority of the eclipse path. These cloud maps only show one part of the story. They don't at all show what type of cloud deck you're dealing with - only the coverage. Same time stamp same model - this time looking at H7 Rh and wind direction. With a near zero Rh and winds generally from the N, the Buffalo region will be quite cloud free overall, or have very thin veil of clouds - even though the cloud cover map suggests too cloudy Also pWAT values quite low in that same region So while the CC maps are a decent guide - they are but one level of information to consider 🙂 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 I think weather.us has cloud maps for multiple levels -- low, mid and high. Those would be useful to look at. If clouds are going to be around, you'd obviously rather have high clouds instead of a stratus deck or something. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 16 hours ago, Hoosier said: It is wild, isn't it? Sun is about 400 times larger than the moon, but it's about 400 times farther away. Makes you wonder. Fun fact: The Moon is moving away from the Earth at approximately 1"/yr. In another several hundred thousand years (give or take) solar eclipses will no longer be possible on Earth. Fun fact #2: When referring to our planet and its satellite, capitalization is mandatory. Thus we write, Earth and Moon - not earth and moon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rush Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 https://www.pivotalweather.com/eclipse2024/ Pivotal has an eclipse page with a blending of the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 6 minutes ago, Rush said: https://www.pivotalweather.com/eclipse2024/ Pivotal has an eclipse page with a blending of the last few runs. Nice! I'll take my 30%+ for now and run with it. (Western NY state viewing location) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 39 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Nice! I'll take my 30%+ for now and run with it. (Western NY state viewing location) Crap - just realized that 30% was the stinkin GEPS (haha) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted March 29 Author Moderators Share Posted March 29 1 hour ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Fun fact: The Moon is moving away from the Earth at approximately 1"/yr. In another several hundred thousand years (give or take) solar eclipses will no longer be possible on Earth. Fun fact #2: When referring to our planet and its satellite, capitalization is mandatory. Thus we write, Earth and Moon - not earth and moon. #1: As if we don't already have enough "fear of missing out" anxiety over this upcoming eclipse. #2: I would agree. But there's debate.... https://www.edrdg.org/jmdict_edict_list/2019/msg00350.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now