2023 Tropical Atlantic Discussion and Pre-invest thread

[btbucks]

A cold front has made its way all the way down to Cuba. Usually when this happens development ends in the Gulf. But it's pretty early in the season for this to happen. Let's see if the water temps rebound.

[StretchCT]

Hmmm

edit:

4 of them up now.

Edited October 18, 2023 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

This (95L)  looks pretty close to a depression.  Probably runs out of time though, at least in the Atlantic basin. Might re-evolve in the Pacific. 

[StretchCT]

1 hour ago, StretchCT said:

This (95L)  looks pretty close to a depression

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Tammy, located a few hundred miles north of the northern Leeward 
Islands. 

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea (AL95):
Satellite data indicate that the area of low pressure located over 
the southwestern Caribbean Sea has developed a well-defined center. 
In addition, the associated showers and thunderstorms continue to 
show signs of organization.  If the current trends continue, 
advisories could be initiated later this afternoon or evening on a 
short-lived tropical depression.  The low is expected to move inland 
over Nicaragua by early Tuesday and will likely produce heavy rains 
over portions of Central America during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Delgado/Cangialosi

[StretchCT]

1 hour ago, StretchCT said:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Tammy, located a few hundred miles north of the northern Leeward 
Islands. 

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea (AL95):
Satellite data indicate that the area of low pressure located over 
the southwestern Caribbean Sea has developed a well-defined center. 
In addition, the associated showers and thunderstorms continue to 
show signs of organization.  If the current trends continue, 
advisories could be initiated later this afternoon or evening on a 
short-lived tropical depression.  The low is expected to move inland 
over Nicaragua by early Tuesday and will likely produce heavy rains 
over portions of Central America during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Delgado/Cangialosi

[StretchCT]

whoa - this would be a busy wednesday for me if it were to come true.

[clm]

Looks like it shifted

 

[MaineJay]

GEFS have been pretty aggressive bringing a wave from the Caribbean north. Not necessarily affecting the CONUS, but they're have been some "creative" solutions.

EPS probably keeping more of a disorganized, open wave that never moves poleward.  Or it emerges over the Eastern Pacific.

[StretchCT]

This one has a nice swirl on it.

It's got some shear and dry air holding in back. 

NHC still gives it a 70% chance though, which is pretty aggresive

 

[StretchCT]

There's an upper low to it's NW

[StretchCT]

Small, small, s-m-all, but looks real.

 

[StretchCT]

Looking at other years where JAS had a similar ONI of 1.1 to 1.5.  There aren't too many.

1982 (1.1) - 2 hurricanes, 6 storms

1974 (1.4) - 4 hurricanes, 11 total storms

1965 (1.5) 4 hurricanes, 1 major, 10 total storms

1963 (1.1) - 7 hurricanes, 3 major, 10 total storms

1957 (1.3) - 3 hurricanes, 2 major 8 total storms

So far this year 19 named storms, way above these, but 7 hurricanes similar to 1963.

 

 

Edited November 2, 2023 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Recon is out looking at Potential Tropical Cyclone 22 (aka 5th suspect area).  NHC is initiating coverage this afternoon. 

I'm finding it hard to see exactly what is interesting.  Based on the flight pattern, it seems the area off Honduras is the main focus and at least at 6,000 feet there is broad circulation.

 

But it's further east that seems more interesting.  Just SW of Jamaica has a nice swirl. Chances are at 70%, but I don't usually see advisories at 70% levels. 

 

Edited November 16, 2023 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

I wonder how far this really was from a tropical storm.