btbucks Posted October 17, 2023 Share Posted October 17, 2023 A cold front has made its way all the way down to Cuba. Usually when this happens development ends in the Gulf. But it's pretty early in the season for this to happen. Let's see if the water temps rebound. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 18, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 18, 2023 (edited) Hmmm edit: 4 of them up now. Edited October 18, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 23, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 23, 2023 This (95L) looks pretty close to a depression. Probably runs out of time though, at least in the Atlantic basin. Might re-evolve in the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 23, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 23, 2023 1 hour ago, StretchCT said: This (95L) looks pretty close to a depression Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Tammy, located a few hundred miles north of the northern Leeward Islands. 1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea (AL95): Satellite data indicate that the area of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea has developed a well-defined center. In addition, the associated showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization. If the current trends continue, advisories could be initiated later this afternoon or evening on a short-lived tropical depression. The low is expected to move inland over Nicaragua by early Tuesday and will likely produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. Forecaster Delgado/Cangialosi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 23, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 23, 2023 1 hour ago, StretchCT said: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Tammy, located a few hundred miles north of the northern Leeward Islands. 1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea (AL95): Satellite data indicate that the area of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea has developed a well-defined center. In addition, the associated showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization. If the current trends continue, advisories could be initiated later this afternoon or evening on a short-lived tropical depression. The low is expected to move inland over Nicaragua by early Tuesday and will likely produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. Forecaster Delgado/Cangialosi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 24, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 24, 2023 whoa - this would be a busy wednesday for me if it were to come true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 Looks like it shifted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted October 29, 2023 Admin Share Posted October 29, 2023 GEFS have been pretty aggressive bringing a wave from the Caribbean north. Not necessarily affecting the CONUS, but they're have been some "creative" solutions. EPS probably keeping more of a disorganized, open wave that never moves poleward. Or it emerges over the Eastern Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 29, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 29, 2023 This one has a nice swirl on it. It's got some shear and dry air holding in back. NHC still gives it a 70% chance though, which is pretty aggresive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 29, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 29, 2023 There's an upper low to it's NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 30, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 30, 2023 Small, small, s-m-all, but looks real. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted November 2, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted November 2, 2023 (edited) Looking at other years where JAS had a similar ONI of 1.1 to 1.5. There aren't too many. 1982 (1.1) - 2 hurricanes, 6 storms 1974 (1.4) - 4 hurricanes, 11 total storms 1965 (1.5) 4 hurricanes, 1 major, 10 total storms 1963 (1.1) - 7 hurricanes, 3 major, 10 total storms 1957 (1.3) - 3 hurricanes, 2 major 8 total storms So far this year 19 named storms, way above these, but 7 hurricanes similar to 1963. Edited November 2, 2023 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted November 16, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted November 16, 2023 (edited) Recon is out looking at Potential Tropical Cyclone 22 (aka 5th suspect area). NHC is initiating coverage this afternoon. I'm finding it hard to see exactly what is interesting. Based on the flight pattern, it seems the area off Honduras is the main focus and at least at 6,000 feet there is broad circulation. But it's further east that seems more interesting. Just SW of Jamaica has a nice swirl. Chances are at 70%, but I don't usually see advisories at 70% levels. Edited November 16, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted November 16, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted November 16, 2023 I wonder how far this really was from a tropical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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