Iceresistance Posted August 31, 2023 Share Posted August 31, 2023 There is something up with the EPS, picking up on a TW from Africa, unusually strong signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 31, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 31, 2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 31, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 31, 2023 1 hour ago, StretchCT said: It already looks like a depression. Full but broad circulation, ton of convection. ASCAT showing 30+kt winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 1, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted September 1, 2023 (edited) Looks like bumper cars out there. And Invest 94L is also at least a depression and the 6z gfs has a serious system brushing or crushing everything along the Atlantic (from orange hashed bubble) Edited September 1, 2023 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 10 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Looks like bumper cars out there. And Invest 94L is also at least a depression and the 6z gfs has a serious system brushing or crushing everything along the Atlantic (from orange hashed bubble) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 1, 2023 Share Posted September 1, 2023 54 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Looks like bumper cars out there. And Invest 94L is also at least a depression and the 6z gfs has a serious system brushing or crushing everything along the Atlantic (from orange hashed bubble) Yep predicted to go right over me. Although anything can change. We've so far been lucky. I've seen a handful of storms "predicted" to hit the east coast. Idalia was the only one to do it so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 3, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted September 3, 2023 GFS ensemble members still thinking theres a system getting close to the islands, while the op is completely missing it. It's kinda there, kinda not. Plays with the second wave more than the first. Meanwhile Euro keeps it intact, does nothing with the second wave (that's a third wave coming off Africa below) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 3, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted September 3, 2023 GFS ensemble members still thinking theres a system getting close to the islands, while the op is completely missing it. It's kinda there, kinda not. Plays with the second wave more than the first. Meanwhile Euro keeps it intact, does nothing with the second wave (that's a third wave coming off Africa below) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 4, 2023 Admin Share Posted September 4, 2023 Likely future Lee moving away from Cape Verde. GFS is quicker with it than the ECMWF. The danger here is if there's some kind of closed low that pulls the system into the mid Atlantic/ northeast area. Unlike Idalia that formed and made landfall in just a handful of days, this one will take a little while to make it's journey towards the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buxtonian Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 Now this is interesting: GFS for September 16. Hmmm, Should I stock up on wine? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 5, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted September 5, 2023 21 hours ago, buxtonian said: Should I stock up on wine? You should always stock up on wine! 🍷 Sometimes I feel like, the Atlantic is watching me...🎶 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 On 9/4/2023 at 10:53 AM, buxtonian said: Now this is interesting: GFS for September 16. Hmmm, Should I stock up on wine? You should also pick up a few bottles of vodka. Vodka is a great "liquid" asset to have in your portfolio because it can be traded during a zombie apocalypse scenario. And don't worry about buying the high end stuff, people won't care if they are drinking Grey Goose or Popov if they are running from the Zombies. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 5, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted September 5, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 6, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted September 6, 2023 (edited) Despite the lack of names currently on the map, there are a lot of spinny things in the N Atlantic right now. Idalia up by the Canadian Maritimes. Franklin over by Portugal and the Azores. AL96 coming off the coast of Africa, now up to 60% of development. Lee in the middle. Two smaller spinny systems between Lee and Franklin - the one nearly directly north looks like its associated with an upper low on wv loop. The other one near 30n looks like a fairly vigorous surface low (Katia, see edit). There's also an upper low off of the Carolinas. edit: that unidentified spinny system by 30n is Katia. The remnant low of Katia is near 27.5N33W. This former tropical cyclone is still producing a small cluster of showers and thunderstorms to NE of the center. An area of 8 ft is associated with Katia, affecting roughly the waters from 26N to 29N between 32W and 36W. Edited September 6, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 6, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted September 6, 2023 Another view of the swirly things, including Jova 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted September 7, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted September 7, 2023 What looks to be the M storm, Margot?, is venting very nice as well and would not be surprised if that gets going rather quickly as well into the central Atlantic. Really do need to watch a sneaky system coming to the antilles in about a week if Lee doesn't strike the US that very well may. Also no real sign of things shutting off in the Atlantic yet especially if we sit here in null to the end of September. If I remember correctly 1-2 tend to be good for the atlantic hurricane season so going into 3 will may create light pause and allow the WPAC to actually get a storm but that is still pretty unknown as of yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 10, 2023 Share Posted September 10, 2023 Looks like the storm behind Lee is another one to watch out for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 11, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted September 11, 2023 On 9/10/2023 at 2:27 PM, clm said: Looks like the storm behind Lee is another one to watch out for. EPS isn't there yet, but I was playing with the wave chart today and was pretty impressed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 13, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted September 13, 2023 Not ready to pull the trigger on a thread for this but it looks likely. Sat is a bit of a mess still. There was a tight surface spinny thing yesterday with no convection over it. Today it might be under some of the higher clouds, or it may be gone🤷♂️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 17, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted September 17, 2023 (edited) Another area in the MDR orange hashed. 0z euro and 6z gfs create an impressive storm that almost makes it to the islands, but then recurves. GFS continues with trying to develop one off the coast. Hasn't caught the NHC's attention yet. Edited September 17, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 NHC is giving the homegrown system a 10% chance of development in the near term and 40% before coming ashore. Then there is the one just off Africa that needs to have an eye kept on it. The GFS really likes that one, the Euro not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 23, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted September 23, 2023 Busy season. GFS is still interested in the area that hatched Ophelia for more activity. The first one could actually be remnants of Ophelia Then another lingers off the coast. And another Ophelia type hits at the end of the run. I'd prefer storms to form in this area than in the GOM. The MDR (main dev region) storms have multiple opps to recurve due to the persistent low pressure in the W Atlantic spitting out lows across the N Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 5, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 5, 2023 (edited) We normally shift to GOM/CAR/Homegrown cyclones once we are deep into OCT. This is showing another formation in the MDR, or slightly south of that. Next named storm is my namesake and being an S and with multiple spellings of my name, I don't get very many shots at this! Edited October 5, 2023 by StretchCT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 5, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 5, 2023 Me just realizing they used the same names in 2011. 🤦♂️ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 10, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted October 10, 2023 Watching this area - if it doesn't develop, the Gulf coast still gets a good soaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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