Moderators StretchCT Posted August 19, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 19, 2023 Chances from left to right are 40,30 and 90. The orange one looks to me the most likely to develop given its removal from the TUTT and dry air. Its just under the shear zone and far removed from dry air The middle one is just in the shear and next to the dry air. Probably why it's not expected to develop, though it does have a tight circulation and I do wonder what the winds are there. And the 90% chance is currently under light shear and near dry air with some mixed in. The I is to the left of the left "eye" of the mask generated by the shear map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 19, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 19, 2023 Up to 5 x now. The red one 98L is down to 70% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 19, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 19, 2023 99L is fighting some really dry air and likely shear in front of it. Put it's producing pretty good convection on the east side. Scat sats are missing the sector. The AMSR sat (new to me) seems to think winds in the area are in the 20-30kt range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 19, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 19, 2023 Weird 335 interim update. Bumped to 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 20, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 20, 2023 6 hours ago, StretchCT said: Weird 335 interim update. Bumped to 70 They set it up to be TD 6. I98L looks pretty good, at least as good as TD6 now. 90l is bumped to 70% now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 20, 2023 Share Posted August 20, 2023 Wait, wut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 20, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 20, 2023 Gettin busy. Me too actually. Will be traveling today and tomorrow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted August 21, 2023 Share Posted August 21, 2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted August 22, 2023 Share Posted August 22, 2023 The sudden increase in activity seems chaotic. Each run of the models seem to give a different track on current and potential storms. This is going to give meteorologists a run for their money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 23, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 23, 2023 (edited) Interesting 12z run from Euro and CMC. No hatched area in the 7 day outlook yet. Also on Icon Edited August 23, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 On 8/22/2023 at 1:17 PM, clm said: The sudden increase in activity seems chaotic. Each run of the models seem to give a different track on current and potential storms. This is going to give meteorologists a run for their money. So many hurricanes are nailed down 3 or 4 days out these days that people forget they can still surprise you. Not just in intensity but their path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted August 23, 2023 Admin Share Posted August 23, 2023 On 8/21/2023 at 8:28 AM, Burr said: Somehow I see a sin or cos function.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted August 24, 2023 Share Posted August 24, 2023 (edited) 40 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said: Somehow I see a sin or cos function.... What always trips me out is how these hurricane parades are evenly spaced out. Like God is just dropping hurricane plinkos. Edited August 24, 2023 by 1816 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 24, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 24, 2023 4 hours ago, StretchCT said: No hatched area in the 7 day outlook yet There it is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 24, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 24, 2023 Did some research as to where the most named storms have passed through using https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#map=4/32/-80 The winning area didn't surprise me, but the amount it won by did. Just off the Outer Banks with 129 named storms. I then looked in the GOM, Caribbean and Central Atlantic to see where those frequent spots were. 93 at this spot in GOM 72 at the NE side of the Caribbean 60 at this spot in the Central Atlantic. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 24, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 24, 2023 Hatch now up to 60% for the CariGom system. GFS and NAVGEM still hesitant. Ukie, CMC and 0z Euro have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted August 24, 2023 Admin Share Posted August 24, 2023 Would love to see the ECMWF go out another day or 2, just for S and G's. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 25, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 25, 2023 41 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Would love to see the ECMWF go out another day or 2, just for S and G's. Here's the EPS control each 24 hrs after- nothing interesting happens though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 25, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 25, 2023 NHC is keeping the CariGom at 70%. Emily downgraded to 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 29, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 29, 2023 This went to 80% real fast. Likely to be TD 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 29, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 29, 2023 Idalia left, Franklin middle, TD 11 right (almost off frame) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 29, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 29, 2023 Aint no rest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 9 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Aint no rest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 I seriously have a bad feeling about this. When your best hope is that a big storm passes through and cools the water so the next one can't blow up as easy then you know your hope is slim to none. We need steering currents to create a forcefield around the US coast otherwise someone is getting shellacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 31, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted August 31, 2023 (edited) Busy out there. Can't believe that Jose got named, but it looks pretty good. The yellow hash next to it also looks better than a 30% and then there's the 70% system out by Cape Verde This is the yellow hash, which TT has labeled as remnants of Gert. It's got a pretty healthy spin to it, but not a lot of convection. It's under a little bit of N shear. Not sure how it's existing between Franklin (left) and Jose (right). I've seen systems looking like this named before, surprised its only 30 unless they plan on it dissipating or are just relying on the intensity models. This is the Cape Verde system. It already looks like a depression. Full but broad circulation, ton of convection. It's modeled to head NW for a while, then likely recurve, though not all members agree on that. Edited August 31, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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