2023 Tropical Atlantic Discussion and Pre-invest thread

[StretchCT]

This spike is a very big anomaly. Wonder what is causing it.  There's a couple other years with spikes as well.

[clm]

On 7/10/2023 at 5:45 PM, Iceresistance said:

If a tropical cyclone even dares come towards that area, this is a literal nightmare scenario as it will literally EXPLODE in intensity!

If all goes according to the below gif, late July/early August will test those waters.

 

[StretchCT]

Oh boy... this is from a wave coming off Africa today, not 95L.  It's only one run, but is attention capturing.

[clm]

1 hour ago, StretchCT said:

Oh boy... this is from a wave coming off Africa today, not 95L.  It's only one run, but is attention capturing.

Worth keeping an eye on.

Earliest in the year I have found was Agnes on 6/22/72 and Bertha on 7/13/96.  Rest were August and later.

[StretchCT]

12z gfs.  Euro shears it out into the central atl.

[clm]

17 hours ago, StretchCT said:

12z gfs.  Euro shears it out into the central atl.

Latest run on GFS shows it entirely gone.  Though that doesn't mean it still can't happen. 

 

[StretchCT]

EPS outdeveloping the GFS for a change. 3 systems:  70w, 40w and 25w.  They all develop further, the 40w barely. The 70W heads into the GOM.  Monsters the 25w system.

GFS does this, but seeing storms this late in the run is fairly common.

 

[MaineJay]

Lots o dust blanketing the MDR.

[StretchCT]

Both long range models showing some life

[StretchCT]

There's always one...

What I find interesting is that the pressure of 955 (see min pressure lower right) only generates winds in the 80s.  Meanwhile Fernanda in the Pacific right now is about 955mph and has 130mph winds. 

[StretchCT]

 

[StretchCT]

 

Been seeing a lot of trash talk about the hurricane season this year. There's competing factors, so no one really knows what will happen.

My take is to be very concerned if there is any low pressure that maintains itself in the Atlantic or Caribbean, cause any let up of the TUTT or shear will cause them to explode.

But until there's an actual system heading up into the jacuzzi area, it's all just hype and speculation.

Dora and Fernanda out in the Pacific, which is also warm, are good examples of how fast a storm can get out of control. The 15z advisory on Fernanda today has the storm at 130mph. 15z yesterday it was 60mph and 15z the day before it didn't exist. So in two days it went from low pressure to Cat 4.

From Stretchct in Post.news yesterday.

Watch every disturbance in the Caribbean or nearing the Western Atlantic.  They could ramp up very quickly. 

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot#ATL

Edited August 15, 2023 by StretchCT

[clm]

So for the past week and a half, I have been playing with the GFS long range.  Many different storms come up here on a lot of different runs, but it all seems to point to a big expectation that at the end of August a hurricane/ts/remnants of some sort will come up to LI.  Though this track is new.  Earlier was coming off the coast of Africa and then switched to forming south of Florida.  But all were staying on the east coast rather than going up through Alabama.

 

[clm]

I honestly was expecting more storms coming off the coast of Africa this season in the summer.

[StretchCT]

2 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Watch every disturbance in the Caribbean or nearing the Western Atlantic.  They could ramp up very quickly.

This is what I mean. 
https://x.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1691490295593279488?s=46&t=IUb_brFy2EI-khwn_GJiMA

[StretchCT]

Stuff on the 0z run this morning.  A look at the Euro.  Storm 1 possibly forms right off the FL coast and tracks across the GoM.  This is backed by the GFS.  Storm 2 might get named live a short while.  Storm 3 is also supported by the GFS and is a long tracking recurver as of now.  I have a ?  on the 60w30n batch of convection.  The model doesn't develop, but with the front to its NW, it could spin up/

GFS has storm 1 on Euro hitting S TX.

GFS has storm 3 on Euro recurving.  But also develops another one in the Caribbean which spins up off an ole front. 

And in keeping to its style, turns that into an end of run monster.  This being a 938 low. Not sure why it's tagged as 985 on Accupro, but the min pressure noted at the bottom is 938 and Pivotal has it at 939.  

Solid cat 3.  Same question as yesterday.  Fernanda was 955mb and cat 4 with 140mph winds.  

[StretchCT]

7 day probabilities

Euro ensemble 

Probability from CIRA/RAMMB/NOAA This is for 0-48 hrs.

Edited August 16, 2023 by StretchCT

[1816]

27 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

7 day probabilities

Euro ensemble 

Probability from CIRA/RAMMB/NOAA This is for 0-48 hrs.

[StretchCT]

MJO is favoring development.  Euro is the only one that stays in the toilet.

 

[StretchCT]

This is pretty impressive.  

There red area is invest 98 and the orange one next to it is invest 99

Technically we can open threads on invests, but I'm holding off until it looks more like a depression and will go from there. If anyone else wants to, go ahead.  

Here's the outlook'

Spoiler

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show some signs of 
organization in association with a broad area of low pressure 
located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. 
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional 
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form over the weekend while it moves toward the west-northwest or 
northwest at about 10 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic. By 
early next week, upper-level winds over the system are forecast to 
increase, and further development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
An elongated trough of low pressure located roughly halfway between 
the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing some 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are 
only marginally conducive for further development of this system, 
but a tropical depression could still form during the day or so 
while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central 
tropical Atlantic. Thereafter, upper-level winds are forecast to 
become unfavorable for any further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

3. East-Southeast of the Lesser Antilles:
Another area of low pressure could form in a day or so from an 
elongated trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to 
the east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. Some slow development of 
this system is possible over the weekend and into early next week 
as it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the 
Lesser Antilles and into the northeastern Caribbean Sea. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

4. Western Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather located over the southeastern Bahamas 
is forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week, 
where a broad area of low pressure could form. Thereafter, some slow 
development of this system is possible and a tropical depression 
could form as it moves westward and approaches the western Gulf of 
Mexico coastline by the middle of next week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Bucci/Hagen

 

[1816]

Feels to me like they just opened the doors on the black Friday hurricane sale. It's going to be a mob coming through. The bad part(possibly good for weather nerds) is that if a mob comes through the door, one of them is going to go to the worst place possible. 

 

Selfishly, while its been dry here the last few days and is supposed to remain mostly so for a bit, this has been one of the wettest summers I can remember. Definitely would only compare it to 09. And tropical systems that slam the gulf have a tendency to flood my area soon after. So hope they all fizzle out or fuck off to the UK or whatever. 

[StretchCT]

The Atlantic system discussion starts around 11 minutes or so.  I didn't see him post it on TT yet.  

 

[StretchCT]

You can see spin on all the systems, which is alarming. Dr. Cowan thinks the middle one is already a depression, and maybe even the eastern one, though it's circulation is pretty broad.  So these could be numbered later tonight or tomorrow.  The western one he believes has the best chance at affecting land as it escapes the TUTT and dry air to the north

[MaineJay]

On 8/15/2023 at 11:11 AM, clm said:

I honestly was expecting more storms coming off the coast of Africa this season in the summer.

They are like bananas, they come in bunches.

[Sentinel]

17 hours ago, 1816 said:

So hope they all fizzle out or fuck off to the UK or whatever. 

Bollocks