Moderators StretchCT Posted May 8, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted May 8, 2023 First time I've seen a system show up this season. EPS has a signal too. Something to watch as the fronts spin up their tails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted May 10, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted May 10, 2023 (edited) He's just throwing this out there... This is individual months Edited May 10, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted May 14, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted May 14, 2023 Something to remember for when things get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted May 15, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted May 15, 2023 On 5/8/2023 at 4:05 PM, StretchCT said: First time I've seen a system show up this season. EPS has a signal too. Something to watch as the fronts spin up their tails. This idea is back today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted May 16, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted May 16, 2023 Another one to watch - seems small but you never know. NAM isn't biting. Euro has a signal for it. CMC gets to a center of circulation but moves it inland, as does Icon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted May 17, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted May 17, 2023 18z GFS is pretty active with lps off the coast. This one looks more subtropical as it develops and sits off New England later on. The above low heads NE again and another one forms Euro has the one off NC in a few days and this one out further Pattern is right with High pressure swinging through the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted May 19, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted May 19, 2023 This is too close to land/running out of time, but you can see how the high to the north funnels in the easterlies helping to spin it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted May 22, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted May 22, 2023 Interesting feature north of the Bahamas around 72/24. Tightly wound but not sustaining any convection yet. Will look into shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted May 24, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted May 24, 2023 The bottom one is the feature from Monday's post. Things expected to get pretty real in the Atl off NC with the next LP Hatteras Canyon to Cape Fear out to 34N 71W to 32N 73W Updated: 1055 AM EDT Wed May 24 2023 ...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE FRI... .TODAY...N to NE winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Scattered showers and tstms. .TONIGHT...N to NE winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Scattered showers and tstms. .THU...NE winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Scattered showers and tstms. .THU NIGHT...E to NE winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 13 ft. Scattered showers and tstms. .FRI...E to NE winds 30 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. .FRI NIGHT...NE winds 30 to 40 kt, becoming E. Seas 12 to 20 ft. .SAT...E winds 30 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. .SAT NIGHT...E winds 25 to 35 kt, diminishing to 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. .SUN...E to SE winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. .SUN NIGHT...S to SE winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted May 25, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted May 25, 2023 Still active off the SE coast. The last system had a bubble for a day too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted May 25, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted May 25, 2023 Updated NHC forecast.https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted May 31, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted May 31, 2023 (edited) I don’t watch the news that often and was surprised when CBS said our first named storm could form and hit FL this weekend. NHC is not all that enthusiastic Spoiler ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed May 31 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Northeastern Gulf of Mexico: An area of low pressure has formed over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico in association with disorganized showers and thunderstorms displaced to its northeast. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for some slow development over the next day or two as the system meanders over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, by this weekend environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for additional development as the system drifts southeastward towards the Florida Peninsula. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the Florida Peninsula through this weekend. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather Prediction Center. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Papin Edited May 31, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 1, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted June 1, 2023 This is coming along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 1, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted June 1, 2023 Load of shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 5, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted June 5, 2023 Odd place for development, but only 10% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 10, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted June 10, 2023 Good advice from Dr. Cowan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted June 11, 2023 Share Posted June 11, 2023 16 hours ago, StretchCT said: Good advice from Dr. Cowan The GFS has been consistently showing it and admittedly, with a ridge moving north into Texas, I do see an opportunity in the Western Caribbean. Wind shear has been downright aggressive in the Caribbean so far this season, but that should abate some in the next 5-10 days. The GFS wants to go bonkers with a system, but to Dr. Cowan's point, not completely logical. It is more likely that nothing comes to fruition, but I can see a window opening if a system can come together. The question I have is where does the heat go from Texas? The GFS continues to want to loop cutoff systems into the northeast, while the Euro is showing signs that maybe that's not correct following the current system that is going to move north, loop, and provide much needed rain to the Mid-Atlantic and NE. I think we might see heat dragged due north into the plains with some 90's and low 100's late next weekend up into Eastern OK, NE, and KS with the heat then starting to push east. That should collapse pretty quickly, but we probably will get storms riding the contours. Eventually, in July, with El Nino now firmly established, our ridge should retrograde into the Southwest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 15, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted June 15, 2023 (edited) While the GFS is drawing attention for constantly making cyclones (like the CMC does), the Euro has been criticized for missing them in the formation stage. So when the GFS and the Euro each have something, it's probably going to draw the attention of the NHC, although climatologically it's pretty rare. This is pretty much it for June Edited June 15, 2023 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 16, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted June 16, 2023 50% in 7 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 16, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted June 16, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted June 19, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted June 19, 2023 (edited) New tool I found. http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot http://wxmaps.org/pix/atlpot.png https://emanuel.mit.edu/hurricane-potential-intensity-maps-0 Edited June 19, 2023 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted June 20, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted June 20, 2023 Thats cool will have to bookmark that site then. The Atlantic may be firing off storm after storm coming up in the next two weeks. This is really impressive for this early in the season and at that producing Cape Verde systems in June is extremely impressive, this area doesn't typically let its guard down until end of July early August. Would certainly be something to see not only an average but potentially above/well above average season while forecasts are still for a strong to even super El Nino forming. We are living in some interesting times coming up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 1, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted July 1, 2023 🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 9, 2023 Author Moderators Share Posted July 9, 2023 Seems the water around Florida is actually hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 21 hours ago, StretchCT said: Seems the water around Florida is actually hot. If a tropical cyclone even dares come towards that area, this is a literal nightmare scenario as it will literally EXPLODE in intensity! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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