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April 2-8, 2023 | Severe Storms


Iceresistance

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  Mesoscale Discussion 0469
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0846 PM CDT Tue Apr 04 2023

   Areas affected...Northeastern Texas...south-central
   Arkansas...northwestern Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 050146Z - 050345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Monitoring potential tornado threat over the next few
   hours. Watch may be needed within the hour.

   DISCUSSION...A conditional tornado threat is evolving across the
   Arklatex region. Currently, a cluster of cells near the Arklatex
   region have shown evidence of deepening updrafts with increasing
   echo top heights on radar. The environment across south-central
   Arkansas and northern Louisiana is conditionally supportive of
   strong tornadoes, given sampling of 0-1 km SRH around 300-400 J/kg
   and large, curved hodographs at SHV and LZK. RAP analysis shows STP
   around 4-5 across this region over the next few hours. Should this
   line of developing storms continue to intensify, a risk for strong
   tornadoes will be possible especially if semi-discrete cells can
   become established. A watch may be needed within the hour if trends
   show continue development with increasing intensity.

   ..Thornton/Thompson.. 04/05/2023

 

mcd0469.png

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  • Meteorologist

One of the ASOS stations in the Texas Panhandle had a close encounter with a fire earlier today. Temperature jumped from 84 to 102 degrees followed by negative visibility and "light rain" (dust/ash?)

qrJ2cbt.png

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KBGD

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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1 minute ago, Bman10 said:

Tornado watch issued for portions  of Indian Kentucky and SW Ohio 

Interesting probabilities since they have seemed to back off the tornado threat slowly, 60/20 on the watch. The wind probs caught my eye though, 95% probabilities of severe wind reports and 80% of 10 or more.

Not really much in the discussion outside of the mention of wind and possible tornadoes. 

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Really interested to see how the ongoing storms around cincinnati will impact the line coming through. HRRR wants to keep killing them off but although sub severe look pretty healthy with lots of lightning. 

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