April 2-8, 2023 | Severe Storms

[Hoosier]

It'll be remarkable if we pull off another high risk from a separate storm system just days after yesterday.  It's not like it's the same system progressing east across the country, which will sometimes result in back to back high risk days.  Sort of reminds me of what happened in May 2004, but what would make this period more impressive is that it's occurring at the end of March/early April.

[StormfanaticInd]

9 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said:

Also whatever model this is needs to chill the heck out 

 

My goodness!!! 

[Ingyball]

I'm not as confident in a widespread outbreak for Tuesday due to the orientation of the upper jet. 

 

 

Compared to what we just saw. 

 

 

The parameters are impressive however, so I think we could see something closer to what was witnessed on March 25th, where a couple of supercells made the event including a violent tornado. If I were to highlight an early target it would be southern Missouri down to northern Louisiana eastward into Mississippi and Tennessee. This system is much larger than the one on March 25th, so there's definitely some concern for that target region. Would not be surprised at all to see a smaller high risk down there if trends continue. Could see multiple intense tornadoes on the southern end.  

[ClicheVortex2014]

I saw someone on Twitter describe yesterday as an "appetizer" for Tuesday. That's hyping it too much imo. Haven't looked that far into this event but I know the parameters are pretty crazy on a big scale. That dryline is pretty impressive too.

Looks likely that I'll be at work focusing on the high wind/fire aspect of this event again. Looking at 35-40+ mph sustained winds and gusts over 60 again, this time for the whole area.

Edited April 1, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Area average sounding for the north half of Missouri and southern Iowa. Insane.

[Ingyball]

Might not want to sleep on Monday. The NAM shows the cap breaking in parts of southeast Kansas down to northwest Arkansas. There's this diffuse surface low that will be getting absorbed into the main one, but it could provide enough of a source of lift to get storms to go. 

 

 

 

Edited April 1, 2023 by Ingyball

[ClicheVortex2014]

CIPS analogs are pretty clear for Tuesday... Multiple significant outbreaks showing up. Several of which show supercells producing a swath of significant severe weather

[Ingyball]

1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

CIPS analogs are pretty clear for Tuesday... Multiple significant outbreaks showing up. Several of which show supercells producing a swath of significant severe weather

A lot of the same analogs from the previous event with the added heat of Andover 1991. As I mentioned before I don't think the upper flow supports a widespread outbreak to the magnitude of what we just saw, but I do think there could be a more regional corridor where intense tornadoes will be possible. Of course plenty of time for the orientation of the upper jet to shift around still. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

22 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

A lot of the same analogs from the previous event with the added heat of Andover 1991. As I mentioned before I don't think the upper flow supports a widespread outbreak to the magnitude of what we just saw, but I do think there could be a more regional corridor where intense tornadoes will be possible. Of course plenty of time for the orientation of the upper jet to shift around still. 

Most favorable environment will clearly be up north, but most favorable storm mode will likely be in the south along the dryline in Oklahoma where forcing should be weaker and storm motion should be more boundary-perpendicular. Now, I'll be curious if there's a sweet spot between the two areas that combines storm mode and environment. Probably would be in your area, if not slightly in Topeka or Springfield's area.

But I definitely like the N MO/S IA/NE KS area at least early on for significant tornadoes. Storm mode might get muddy after a bit.

Edited April 1, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[Ingyball]

2 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Most favorable environment will clearly be up north, but most favorable storm mode will likely be in the south along the dryline in Oklahoma where forcing should be weaker and storm motion should be more boundary-perpendicular. Now, I'll be curious if there's a sweet spot between the two areas that combines storm mode and environment. Probably would be in your area, if not slightly in Topeka or Springfield's area.

It's been so dry here It may just miss our area (Springfield has the last row of counties in southeast Kansas). It's going to be hard to cash in on these wound up systems this spring until we can wet up some. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Just now, Ingyball said:

It's been so dry here It may just miss our area (Springfield has the last row of counties in southeast Kansas). It's going to be hard to cash in on these wound up systems this spring until we can wet up some. 

It's funny because that's the exact concern here, yet we're a few hundred miles to your west. All the talk here is that the dryness is going to keep the dryline off to our east this spring, favoring Oklahoma and Kansas. 

I'm obviously new to the Plains so maybe I'm naive, but April might be rough for both of us. But May should be fine. Especially around here, sounds like May is a sure thing almost every year.

Anyway, here in the Panhandles, we had a December tornado event and a February tornado/derecho event. Two anomalous winter severe events in one winter. Moisture is getting to our drought-stricken areas, but it's been infrequent. So I wouldn't rule anything out this month.

[Ingyball]

3 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

It's funny because that's the exact concern here, yet we're a few hundred miles to your west. All the talk here is that the dryness is going to keep the dryline off to our east this spring, favoring Oklahoma and Kansas. 

I'm obviously new to the Plains so maybe I'm naive, but April might be rough for both of us. But May should be fine. Especially around here, sounds like May is a sure thing almost every year.

Anyway, here in the Panhandles, we had a December tornado event and a February tornado/derecho event. Two anomalous winter severe events in one winter. Moisture is getting to our drought-stricken areas, but it's been infrequent. So I wouldn't rule anything out this month.

Yeah I'm not worried about May too much, I also expect June to be active with the El Nino brewing. April is more hesitant. We need a slow moving trough out west to give us multi-day storms. There are some hints this may happened. Once we've greened up here it should be game one. Drought + a cold March has delayed that though. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

No shortage of clown soundings on the 00z NAM. Very impressive overlap of very strong shear and moderate instability on a pretty large scale.

East-central KS

 

SE KS

 

south-central IA (near the warm front, not sure if storms take advantage of it)

 

East of OKC along the dryline

 

3 hours later in east-central KS

Edited April 2, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[Ingyball]

18 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

No shortage of clown soundings on the 00z NAM. Very impressive overlap of very strong shear and moderate instability on a pretty large scale.

East-central KS

 

SE KS

 

south-central IA (near the warm front, not sure if storms take advantage of it)

 

East of OKC along the dryline

 

3 hours later in east-central KS

(Lol I replied to the wrong post before)

 

Looks like the key here is that first surface low. The NAM pushes it further north this run and the dryline doesn't push as far east as a result. Feel like if it didn't happen at all we'd have a chance here as far west as Wichita, but if that surface low and moisture can push further north it could impede the movement of the dryline for a bit. Something to watch for sure. 

[Ingyball]

Euro has a similar idea to the NAM. Pretty high potential in Southeast Kansas. I may end up on radar for the event.

 

[Iceresistance]

15 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

Euro has a similar idea to the NAM. Pretty high potential in Southeast Kansas. I may end up on radar for the event.

 

If this verifies, dear lord have mercy for Kansas. 0_0

 

(I know the NAM is usually crazy, but is the Euro showing this? RUN!)

[ClicheVortex2014]

Great thread from a SPC forecaster

 

[Ingyball]

26 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Great thread from a SPC forecaster

 

Sounds like he read my mind lol

[Ingyball]

Enhanced risk for DFW 

 

 

 

Edited April 2, 2023 by Ingyball

[Neoncyclone]

06z HRRR showing off some solid soundings in Texas ahead of a Supercell this evening.

Edited April 2, 2023 by Neoncyclone

[ElectricStorm]

Day 3 double enhanced 

[Harberr62]

From IND:

2. As the day shift stated, we still think a more
upscaled/consolidated convective wind event with some tornado
potential could be a viable finale scenario Tuesday night into
Wednesday, but want to also leave a more classic supercell tornado
episode on the table this far east. There is an orthogonal breach
of the upper level jet exit region atop the warm sector, given
the trough`s moderate amplitude and orientation. This resembles
the "Violent Outbreak Cross/VOC" synoptic pattern described by
Jakub at NWS Wichita. Given model projections of synoptic scale
placement, more substantial supercell tornado outbreak would seem
to be displaced west or southwest of Indiana for the Tuesday
diurnal cycle, hence us leaning toward the downstream upscale
growth scenario as most viable.

[ElectricStorm]

10 hatched tornado area up for DFW now. This is quickly becoming a pretty dangerous day down there. 

[Ingyball]

Quite the tricky forecast for Tuesday. Anytime you involve another boundary where low-level turning can be enhanced you're looking at trouble. Could be interesting somewhere in eastern Kansas. Not gonna lie, but I'm kind of worried about that area unless the first surface low completely diffuses. 

[Hoosier]

The SPC outlook for Tuesday brought up a great point.  Although surface dewpoints look similar if not a little higher than they were on Friday, the moisture depth may be a bit shallower in some places, which would suggest more vulnerability to some mixing out if mixing overperforms.  Not that it will happen, but it's something to keep an eye on.