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April 2-8, 2023 | Severe Storms


Iceresistance

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10 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said:

Sun’s tryyyying to come out here… feels like a midsummer afternoon 

Was just about to say, the sun has appeared here in Findlay. Not sure for how long, or if it will matter all that much given that the threat has decreased a bit. Still some time before things slide this way though.

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Enhanced cut back off NW Ohio and Indiana on the latest outlook which I'm guessing is based on current radar not looking too impressive in those areas. Discussion below, it appears they contemplated dropping the enhanced but believe there could be enough reintestification this afternoon to keep it for now.

day1otlk_1630.gif

Quote
   SPC AC 051621

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1121 AM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023

   Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   FOR PARTS OF OHIO...SOUTHERN INDIANA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL
   KENTUCKY...AND WESTERN/MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorm winds, large hail and a few tornadoes are
   expected today from the Great Lakes to parts of east Texas and
   Louisiana.

   ...Great Lakes into Lower MS Valley today...
   A long band of broken convection extends along/ahead of a cold front
   from southern Lower MI into parts of IN/IL/MO/AR/TX.  This line will
   progress eastward today across much of the OH/TN Valleys.  Ample low
   level moisture and strong winds aloft will maintain a risk of bowing
   structures and associated risk of damaging wind gusts across the
   region.  A few cells along or ahead of the line could also organize
   into supercells, posing a risk of tornadoes.  Considerable clouds,
   lessening midlevel lapse rates, and shorter-term convective trends
   are decreasing the confidence of a more widespread damaging wind
   event, but there is sufficient concern of re-intensification this
   afternoon to maintain the ENH risk and associated 30% severe wind
   probabilities in some areas.  

   ...TX/LA/MS/TN/AL tonight...
   Several weak shortwave troughs are rotating through the base of the
   upper trough, resulting in increasing large scale forcing for ascent
   by evening over parts of east TX/LA.  This will result in scattered
   thunderstorms that spread eastward into northern MS, west TN, and
   northwest AL.  Low-level winds will not be particularly strong in
   this area, and many of the storms will be on the north side of the
   stalled front.  Nevertheless, a few of the storms may pose a risk of
   large hail and gusty winds.

   ..Hart/Lyons.. 04/05/2023

 

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I think the stuff that occurred earlier in the morning definitely prevented the ceiling from being reached today.  Obviously there's still severe wx, but I think the day could've been quite a bit bigger.

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Unless something changes today has been a fairly big bust regarding severe weather in my locale.  Very welcomed however.  I love thunderstorms, but violent weather can stay away.

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Complete bust, Ohio can barely get a severe Tstorm anymore

Also seems like the NWS warns sub severe storms more and more every year. Being warned means absolutely 0 to me anymore due to the seemingly awful hit rate. I don't even get excited.

Edited by Medina
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Of course the storms that just rolled through go severe warned after they pass here. Been rough here in Cincy so far this year. Storms all around us this year but just can’t get a hit here it seems. Also wind advisory was kind of a bust here. Gotta a hit breezy when those storms just moved through but outside of that I don’t think I’ve seen a wind over 20mph all day.

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