Iceresistance Posted March 29, 2023 Share Posted March 29, 2023 (edited) Just east of me as usual? Come on! I need the rainfall! -_- Edited March 29, 2023 by Iceresistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 29, 2023 Author Share Posted March 29, 2023 I may need to push it back to April 3rd, if necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 29, 2023 Author Share Posted March 29, 2023 47 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: I may need to push it back to April 3rd, if necessary. (Yes, I'm aware I'm quoting myself) And these are some of the reasons why, now considering April 2nd. Sounding over Pott. County, OK 6z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 This system is modeled to have a lot more instability which could make thing even more interesting 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 Friday 0z HRRR STP pretty impressive Also shows supercede development rather than a line If that's correct looks pontentially nasty to me. Cape is not impressive but it might be enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 0z GFS shifts west a bit for 4/4, now has the dryline across C OK at 0z 4/4 is looking absolutely nasty right now for a large area, luckily it's still nearly a week out so hopefully the models will chill out a bit as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said: 0z GFS shifts west a bit for 4/4, now has the dryline across C OK at 0z 4/4 is looking absolutely nasty right now for a large area, luckily it's still nearly a week out so hopefully the models will chill out a bit as we get closer. The instability is crazy for early April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 Day 6 enhanced is up for AR/S MO, slight risk a little more west and now includes Tulsa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 This one *may* have better moisture than the system tomorrow. There's a lead system going by on Sun/Mon that gets that process underway, and then the bigger northward surge with the main system for the middle of next week. I'd never predict a high risk this far out, but barring big model changes, I'd say the floor is probably a moderate risk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 30, 2023 Author Share Posted March 30, 2023 11 hours ago, ElectricStorm said: 0z GFS shifts west a bit for 4/4, now has the dryline across C OK at 0z 4/4 is looking absolutely nasty right now for a large area, luckily it's still nearly a week out so hopefully the models will chill out a bit as we get closer. It currently has trended east, likely Windshield Wiper effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 15 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: It currently has trended east, likely Windshield Wiper effect. Yeah I'd guess this will probably stay east of us which is probably a good thing in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 30, 2023 Author Share Posted March 30, 2023 1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said: If that is verified, Dear Lord have Mercy for Kansas City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Crazy active! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 1, 2023 Author Share Posted April 1, 2023 3 hours ago, Neoncyclone said: Not again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted April 1, 2023 Moderators Share Posted April 1, 2023 4 hours ago, Neoncyclone said: Wow here we go again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 Tuesday has me very worried. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 1, 2023 Author Share Posted April 1, 2023 9 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Tuesday has me very worried. Call me crazy, but another High Risk is not out of the question here once again... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 (edited) Plenty of wind energy and even more instability Edited April 1, 2023 by StormfanaticInd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Call me crazy, but another High Risk is not out of the question here once again... I would not be surprised especially given how this spring is evolving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 From KIND As strong warm/moist advection regime evolves preceding the intense mid-latitude system to our west on Tuesday, more rain will develop. We are growing increasingly concerned about episodic severe weather across the region, though the details on timing and specifically which areas are impacted the hardest are unclear at the moment. Current thinking is a dangerous setup of very broad warm sector with anomalous moisture and broad low-level jet/strong mass response to the main mid-latitude system will bring a risk of severe storms to Indiana at least with the frontal passage into Wednesday. There may also be severe thunderstorms in our area preceding this with either (1) the warm advection regime, or (2) associated with a weak midlevel perturbation that moves out of the Arklatex region Tuesday. The ceiling for this event is high across broader region, with the potential for significant severe and tornadoes. This may primarily be centered west of Indiana, but these details will become more clear over the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 1, 2023 Author Share Posted April 1, 2023 24 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Plenty of wind energy and even more instability Dear Lord have Mercy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 April 2th 😂 lol But yeah Tuesday is still looking very concerning, I was hoping it would downtrend but so far that hasn't been the case. It's impossible to predict a high risk until pretty much the day of (like we just saw) but this will be another dangerous event regardless of risk level. Models are hinting at a lull in severe weather setups after this one so hopefully everyone can get a break for a bit before it likely picks back up again around mid-month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 1, 2023 Share Posted April 1, 2023 Also whatever model this is needs to chill the heck out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now