FortySixAnd32 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Just now, snowlover2 said: All six categories involving how much of the population??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted March 31, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 31, 2023 WIND risk was substantially increased in some areas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 minute ago, Central Illinois said: Crazy almost the entire state of illinois is in a Moderate/High risk Yeah I'm now well within the moderate 🙃 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 I am getting a bit more concerned for the Chicago metro area with the potential lead round of storms around 5-7 pm. Unclear if that activity will be entirely surface based but there is some 0-3 km CAPE progged to be moving in tandem. Could be a big problem if it is tornadic with it being rush hour. Then of course there is the round a couple hours or so behind that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Here's the disco. Quote Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA...WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND IN PARTS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak appears increasingly likely, centered on this afternoon and evening, across a large portion of the Mississippi Valley. At least a few long-track, strong to potentially violent tornadoes are probable, particularly over portions of the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Mid-South. Swaths of intense damaging wind gusts along with very large hail are expected as well. ...Synopsis... A dangerous severe weather outbreak is likely across a large portion of the central states this afternoon into tonight. Long-track, strong to potentially violent tornadoes are forecast across a broad region of the MS Valley. The propensity of model-supporting evidence and observational trends lends confidence in the upgrade to bimodal High Risks for the mid MS Valley and lower MS Valleys. ...Midwest and the Mid-MS to OH Valleys... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a potent 500-mb speed max ejecting east-northeast across the TX Panhandle/western OK to the south of a mid-level low over northern NE. A 992-mb cyclone over western IA will deepen through this afternoon as it matures into the Upper MS Valley before occluding this evening. Visible-satellite imagery/surface observations show a plume of increasingly rich low-level moisture rapidly advecting northward into the lower MO Valley with surface dewpoints rising into the lower 60s F. Strong heating in combination with low-level moistening and cooling mid-level temperatures, are expected to result in a relatively large corridor featuring 1000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE across a moderate to strongly unstable warm sector. In agreement with prior forecast thinking, it seems the primary severe evolution remains likely to evolve beginning around 19Z to the southeast of the deep cyclone across central IA and broadening in coverage through the late afternoon along the north/south-oriented cold front arcing southward into eastern MO. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and an elongated mid to upper-level hodograph will initially support a broken band of supercells capable of producing very large hail. The risk for tornadoes will likely focus initially with supercells near and southeast of the surface low. As this activity rapidly spreads into an increasingly favorable low-level SRH environment in the eastern half of IA and the MS Valley, several to numerous tornadoes are expected to form. Forecast soundings within the High Risk show large 0-3-km MLCAPE co-located with intense speed shear and large low-level and elongated hodographs. Within this arcing band of quasi-discrete supercells, several long-track strong to potentially violent tornadoes are forecast for this afternoon into the evening. Eventual upscale growth into an intense squall line with embedded cellular elements is expected to evolve during the evening into tonight across IL and rapidly sweep eastward across the OH Valley/southern Great Lakes. Some risk for tornadoes will probably spread east with the squall line coincident with a 70-kt 700-mb speed max overspreading the region. Severe gusts (60-90 mph) are possible with surges/bowing structures and embedded cells within the band of storms. Have expanded the Moderate Risk due to significant wind gusts across eastern IL into IN. By late tonight, the evolving QLCS will outpace weakening surface-based instability around the central OH Valley. Extreme low-level wind fields could support a waning wind/brief tornado threat approaching the central Appalachians. ...Ark-La-Tex to the Lower MS/TN Valleys... Multiple rounds of severe convection are expected to unfold, intensifying this afternoon in AR and Ark-La-Tex, before continuing east across the Lower MS into the TN Valleys through tonight. Rapid airmass modification is currently underway across the lower MS Valley with mid 60s deg F dewpoints surging north-northeast across southern AR and towards the AR/TN/MS region. Initially, a capped warm sector via an EML will act to limit storm development (isolated early afternoon storms with mainly a hail risk). However, as buoyancy increases (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) and shear profiles intensify, very favorable hodographs are forecast to develop by mid-late afternoon across southern/eastern AR into adjacent portions of MS/TN (effective SRH 300-600 m2/s2). Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop by late afternoon with these rapidly evolving into supercells. Strong to potentially violent tornadoes are forecast with a few long-tracked supercells. Upscale growth into a QLCS with embedded supercells appears probable during the late evening and overnight as frontal convergence strengthens. Tornadoes and significant damaging wind swaths will remain possible well into the night across at least into the TN Valley, until warm-sector low-level flow becomes more veered towards the end of the period. ..Smith/Lyons.. 03/31/2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Wow, how long has it been since the last high risk north of the Ohio River and/or north of I-70 in Missouri/Kansas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted March 31, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, Chinook said: Wow, how long has it been since the last high risk north of the Ohio River and/or north of I-70 in Missouri/Kansas? Maybe 11/17/2013? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted March 31, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 31, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Today has escalated really fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Wind threat has really expanded in the past 12 hours or so. Seeing hatched expanded all the way into Ohio is very impressive. Going to be a long day for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted March 31, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 31, 2023 15z HRRR 🤯 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 minute ago, Central Illinois said: 15z HRRR 🤯 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Can't help but to get a 5/27/19 type feeling around here with the way the current day 1 looks. Scary similar as far as where the greatest tornado potential is before transitioning to a wind threat. Of course we remember how the wind threat didn't materialize as expected then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 PDS watch up for the northern area. 95/90 tor probs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 (edited) SPC just issued a PDS watch for MO/IA/IL. 90% probabilities for EF2-EF5. Text in spoiler. Spoiler SEL3 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 93 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Iowa Western Illinois Northern and Central Missouri Southwest Wisconsin * Effective this Friday morning and evening from 1145 AM until 800 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Intense supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and spread eastward across the watch area. Tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are all possible with this activity. Parameters are favorable for the potential for strong/violent tornadoes and very large hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 115 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles east of Jefferson City MO to 55 miles east northeast of Mason City IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Hart Edited March 31, 2023 by ak9971 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 93 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Iowa Western Illinois Northern and Central Missouri Southwest Wisconsin * Effective this Friday morning and evening from 1145 AM until 800 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Intense supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and spread eastward across the watch area. Tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are all possible with this activity. Parameters are favorable for the potential for strong/violent tornadoes and very large hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 115 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles east of Jefferson City MO to 55 miles east northeast of Mason City IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Hart 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Quote Tornadoes Probability of 2 or more tornadoes High (>95%) Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes High (90%) Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (90%) Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots Low (10%) Hail Probability of 10 or more severe hail events High (80%) Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches Mod (60%) Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%) 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Can't help but to get a 5/27/19 type feeling around here with the way the current day 1 looks. Scary similar as far as where the greatest tornado potential is before transitioning to a wind threat. Of course we remember how the wind threat didn't materialize as expected then. Had a tornado a few miles from me that day, but it was minor in comparison to what happened elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted March 31, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 31, 2023 Just now, snowlover2 said: Sweet cheezits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Extreme west/north parts of that watch are in the slight risk area. Likely very rare to have a PDS watch in a slight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Had a tornado a few miles from me that day, but it was minor in comparison to what happened elsewhere. Imagine having an EF4 about 1/2 mile north of you. You can guess how scared i was. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Imagine having an EF4 about 1/2 mile north of you. You can guess how scared i was. Yeah, and it was after dark if I recall correctly? That would've had me worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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