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March 30-April 1, 2023 | Severe Weather | Destructive Tornado Outbreak with a double High Risk


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Speaking of PDS watches

Quote
Mesoscale Discussion 0391
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1044 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

   Areas affected...ArkLaTex into parts of the Mid South

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 311544Z - 311745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for tornadic supercells will increase this
   afternoon. PDS Tornado Watch issuance is eventually expected for
   parts of the region.

   DISCUSSION...Weak elevated convection has been ongoing across parts
   of AR this morning, within a plume of rich low-level moisture and
   along the periphery of a lead shortwave moving across eastern
   portions of the central Plains. Additional convective development
   has been noted recently into southeast OK and northeast TX.
   Widespread cloudiness will tend to limit diurnal heating to some
   extent, but gradual warming amid increasingly rich low-level
   moisture will support MLCAPE increasing into the 1000-2000 J/kg
   range and weakening MLCINH with time. 

   Area VWPs already depict very favorable wind profiles, with strong
   low-level (0-1 km SRH of 200-400 m2/s2) and deep-layer shear
   (effective shear of 60+ kt) expected to persist through the day.
   Tornadic supercells are expected to eventually evolve across the
   region this afternoon, with a few longer-lived supercells capable of
   producing strong/intense tornadoes possible, especially across AR
   toward the MS Valley. Onset timing of the greater threat remains
   somewhat uncertain, but one or more Tornado Watches will be required
   by early afternoon, with PDS Tornado Watch issuance expected across
   parts of AR toward the MS Valley.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 03/31/2023

 

mcd0391.png

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Where I'm at in southwest IL (STL metro), the sun has been out in full force all morning with barely a cloud in the sky and a strong southerly wind developing. Definitely feels like one of those days...

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  • The title was changed to March 30th-April ?, 2023 | Severe Weather | Potentially Destructive Outbreak with a double High Risk

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