Chinook Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Don't forget Hill (Andy) 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 The HRRR has definitely been hinting over the last few runs at pre-frontal cells firing across Illinois, could potentially see an upgrade to 10% hatched across Illinois where only a 5% sits now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 (edited) 17 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: The HRRR has definitely been hinting over the last few runs at pre-frontal cells firing across Illinois, could potentially see an upgrade to 10% hatched across Illinois where only a 5% sits now. Heh, there it is... Honestly wished I was wrong because I live pretty close to the 10% hatched. Dangerous day ahead. Not sure why the graphic says 5% in the 10% hatched, just a glitch though. Quote SPC AC 310547 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Intense and widespread severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Mid-South vicinity, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Intense, damaging gusts and several tornadoes (some strong and long-track) are expected. ...Discussion... Strong, dynamic upper low will begin to deepen early in the period as it tracks across the central Plains into the Midwest Friday evening. This feature will encourage a pronounced surface low to eject into southeast NE by sunrise Friday, then into lower MI by the end of the period. Significant moisture return ahead of the associated cold front will lead to an air mass supportive of severe thunderstorms from the mid MS Valley/Midwest into the lower MS Valley. ...Mid-MS Valley/Midwest Vicinity... Early this morning, a strong upper trough is shifting across western WY/Four Corners region. An upper low should evolve over the central Plains by late morning with further deepening expected as the low tracks into the mid MO Valley by early evening. Latest model guidance suggests a 500mb speed max will increase to near 110kt as it translates across MO into the OH Valley during the latter half of the period. As a result, intense 12hr height falls, on the order of 270-300m, will spread across the mid MS Valley/Midwest which should encourage the aforementioned surface low to deepen as it matures over northeast IA/southwest WI. Strong low-level warm advection is currently aiding a corridor of elevated convection from northeast NE across northern IA, along/north of a stationary front draped across this region. Latest thinking is much of the warm sector should remain convective-free through late morning until leading edge of stronger forcing spreads east in conjunction with rapid boundary-layer heating ahead of the cold front. Steep low-level lapse rate plume should develop across the central Plains early then spread/develop east-northeast across MO into portions of IA ahead of the front. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached by 18z immediately ahead of the low/front. Scattered supercells should develop quickly thereafter, tracking quickly northeast in response to the fast-moving upper trough/speed max. Discrete supercells should be the initial storm mode with very large hail expected. With time, strong forcing may lead to line segment and clusters. Strong shear will support long-lived updrafts. In addition to very large hail, tornadoes can be expected (a few strong) with these storms, especially prior to any line segment evolution. While the more concentrated storms should be noted across IA/northern MO into northwest IL, there is concern for more isolated long-track supercells across central MO into IL. All hazards can be expected with these storms. ...Lower MS Valley... A secondary corridor of concentrated convection is expected to evolve ahead of the front across the lower MS Valley. Early-day mid-level speed max that races across northern OK into MO will allow the front to surge into southern MO, arcing across the Arklatex by late afternoon. Surface dew points have risen into the mid 60s across northeast TX/western LA early this morning. This air mass will easily advance across AR into western KY prior to convective initiation. As a result, SBCAPE should be on the order of 2000 J/kg with very strong sfc-6km shear and low-level SRH. Any supercells that evolve within this air mass will do so within an environment that favors long-lived updrafts and strong tornadoes. Upscale growth into a QLCS is expected during the latter half of the period. Severe threat should spread east across the northern Gulf States Friday night. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 03/31/2023 Edited March 31, 2023 by Neoncyclone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 (edited) WOW!!!: Edited March 31, 2023 by StormfanaticInd 2 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 (edited) The Moderate Risk is along the Mississippi River from Iowa to Mississippi! And Dare I say there is a chance for a High Risk? Edited March 31, 2023 by Iceresistance 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Today has serious potential over a very large area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 minute ago, StormfanaticInd said: I was just about to say that, very strong wording from the SPC. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Clearing in the warm sector 😳 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 8 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Clearing in the warm sector 😳 This is something you never ever want to see on a setup like today! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: This is something you never ever want to see on a setup like today! Agree. Like throwing gasoline on a raging fire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Mainiac Posted March 31, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 31, 2023 8 hours ago, Chinook said: Don't forget Hill (Andy) I've really been enjoying the breath of high-quality weather content on YouTube that's been evolving over the last year. I usually watch Ryan Hall during events like we will see tonight and then pop over to some of the individual chasers as the storms progress. Does anyone use Radar omega? I've been thinking of trying one of their subscriptions, but I've been reasonably happy with RadarScope pro since moving over from PYKL3. I do like the idea of integrated video feeds from chasers as well as some additional models built right in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 (edited) 8 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Agree. Like throwing gasoline on a raging fire Yeah, there is a serious possibility of a High Risk if trends keep going like this. Or, more like putting more fuel to the fire in the near future, and the fuse to start it is lit. Edited March 31, 2023 by Iceresistance 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 If this sounding was at 3 PM for me, this would likely be a "Oh dear Lord have mercy". (Click on image for better quality) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 (edited) Currently hearing deep thunder Edited March 31, 2023 by StormfanaticInd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Wow, I was worried last night when they upgraded most of Illinois to a 10% hatched... Now i'm well within the 10% hatched right on the border of the 15% hatched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Here we go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 (edited) There are already Severe Storms at I-49 south of Kansas City over Harrisonville, MO. There is no Velocity Couplet, yet... Edited March 31, 2023 by Iceresistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 The Supercell Composite, STP, and SRH are higher than expected per SPC Mesoanalysis The Low-Level Lapse rates are slightly higher further south. The only thing that is currently weaker than expected is the Bulk Shear, but may not matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted March 31, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 31, 2023 37 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Here we go! im guessing we will see a couple PDS watches today 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJKuo Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Obviously focus is on today's severe storms but wanted to also mention that the post-precip winds for Saturday look to be pretty intense over E KY/OH 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Nadocast twitter feed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said: WOW!!!: Well that escalated fast. Didn't think i'd see the enhanced all the way to I-75 in OH/KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted March 31, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 31, 2023 clear skies here within the last 15 minutes 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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