beaver56 Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 Just now, Hoosier said: Forecast soundings are nasty tomorrow. Focusing more on the northern target for obvious reason of it being closer to home, but a volatile environment is present around IA/IL in the afternoon. The "barb of death" is also present as some old timers would say, with 500 mb winds in excess of 100 kts in the area. That phrase is just what it sounds like, in that it tends to result in bad outcomes with deadly tornadoes. Do see a tendency for some minor surface CINH with eastward extent in IL and IN, but it may not be enough to preclude a tornado threat into those areas and there could be some local augmentation of the profiles anyway in that kind of shear environment. Stay safe and be careful chasing. Good summary for us weather beginners. It definitely could be a volatile day in the GL/OV/MW for sure. Here to hoping all stay very safe and unscathed in every aspect by this situation. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 They will probably expand the moderate risk with the next update. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 Instability seems to be trending up for Indiana on the nam 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 30, 2023 Author Share Posted March 30, 2023 32 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: They will probably expand the moderate risk with the next update. Both Moderate Risks now have a 15% Hatched Tornado risk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 Quote Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...AND ALSO ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...EXTREME WESTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Intense and widespread severe thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Mid-South vicinity, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Intense, damaging gusts and several tornadoes (some strong and long-track) are expected. ...A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected on Friday across parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley and also into the Mid-South... ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough and attendant 100 kt midlevel jet will move quickly eastward from the central Plains into parts of the MS Valley and Midwest on Friday. A surface low will deepen as it moves across IA toward the Great Lakes region, as a cold front sweeps eastward through parts of the Great Plains into the mid-MS Valley. In advance of the cold front, low-level moisture will stream northward across a broad warm sector from the ArkLaTex region into parts of the lower/mid MS Valley and Midwest. ...Mid-MS Valley vicinity into IN/lower MI... Rapid destabilization and increasing large-scale ascent will support thunderstorm development by early/mid afternoon across parts of IA into northern MO. Very strong deep-layer shear (effective shear in excess of 60 kt) and MLCAPE increasing to 1000-1500 J/kg (locally greater) will support organized convection, with initial supercell development expected somewhere over central IA into north-central MO. Very large hail will be the initial threat, given steep midlevel lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft. Some uncertainty remains regarding the convective mode evolution with time, but a few semi-discrete supercells are expected to move into an environment with stronger low-level shear/SRH across eastern IA into northwest IL by late afternoon, posing a threat for a couple strong tornadoes. Evolution into small clusters or bowing segments is expected, resulting in an increasing threat of severe/damaging winds in addition to a continued threat of a few tornadoes and sporadic hail. Organized convection will spread eastward into parts of IN/southern MI Friday night. Instability will weaken with eastward extent, but some threat for damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes will persist before a more definitive weakening trend occurs overnight into early Saturday morning. ...ArkLaTex/Mid South vicinity into the TN/lower OH Valleys... A concerning scenario still appears possible across portions of the MO Bootheel, northeast AR, western TN/KY and far northwest MS vicinity during the afternoon/evening. At least mid-60s F dewpoints are expected beneath modest midlevel lapse rates. This will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE amid intense vertical shear. Forecast soundings indicate 0-1 km SRH increasing to around 400 m2/s2 by early afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon ahead of the cold front within a pre-frontal trough/low-level confluence zone. Storm motion near 50 kt with supercell wind profiles will support cells capable of significant and long-track tornadoes. With time, upscale growth into a QLCS is expected, and intense wind gusts will be possible in addition to mesovortex tornadoes. The threat for damaging gusts and a few line-embedded tornadoes will spread into parts of the TN and lower OH Valleys Friday night, with a gradual weakening trend eventually expected overnight as storms move into increasingly weak buoyancy with eastward extent. ..Dean.. 03/30/2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 (edited) 18z HRRR cut back on the northward extent of 60+ dewpoints as convection earlier in the afternoon has a deleterious effect, but it still has plenty of 62-64 readings in northern IL. A compromise solution or even something like the lower end model output would likely still be plenty threatening, but the HRRR is on another level. Edited March 30, 2023 by Hoosier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 18z NAM bumped up dewpoints... wider area over 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 30, 2023 Author Share Posted March 30, 2023 I'm getting a surprise complex of storms, how does this implicate the severe weather potential for tonight and into tomorrow morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 30, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 30, 2023 1 hour ago, Iceresistance said: I'm getting a surprise complex of storms, how does this implicate the severe weather potential for tonight and into tomorrow morning? Probably doesn't. It's probably elevated and the marginal risk is for the evening hours anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted March 30, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 30, 2023 Getting really concerned for the northern moderate risk. With this type wound up system it's best to err on the side of higher dew points in the warm sector. LCLs will be low between the 100 meter and 400 meter range. Would not be surprised to see some wedges up there tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 30, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 30, 2023 (edited) Lots of dust (pink colors in TX/OK panhandle/SE CO/SW KS) in the Panhandles today. Had a dust storm warning earlier in the western Oklahoma panhandle. Not seen below but 2 wildfires in the Oklahoma panhandle now. RH is less than 10% with sustained winds over 30 Edited March 30, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted March 30, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 30, 2023 6 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Lots of dust (pink colors in TX/OK panhandle/SE CO/SW KS) in the Panhandles today. Had a dust storm warning earlier in the western Oklahoma panhandle. Not seen below but 2 wildfires in the Oklahoma panhandle now. RH is less than 10% with sustained winds over 30 Bleh, it'll be heading up my way tomorrow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 30, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 30, 2023 Looks like the northwest Texas Panhandle won the wind game today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Looking like a midnight-ish squall/broken line around here per the usual timing for these setups(hedge earlier timings since squalls speed up) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 0z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 (edited) I'm not an expert at this severe stuff so on 0z data for HRRR, NAM for my area in west ky: 1. STP increased 2. Instability increased 3. Dewpoint increased 4. Storm development is DEcreased Help me out here. Why is that? Edited March 31, 2023 by Grace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 31, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 31, 2023 45 minutes ago, Grace said: I'm not an expert at this severe stuff so on 0z data for HRRR, NAM for my area in west ky: 1. STP increased 2. Instability increased 3. Dewpoint increased 4. Storm development is DEcreased Help me out here. Why is that? You do have storms on both of those models... HRRR is messy and NAM is linear. Better moisture might be as simple as higher observations. Not sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 (edited) New convective model RRFS A is up on Pivotalweather. It says it's a prototype made by NOAA so no idea how far along they are with fine-tuning things but it seems to have a case of the early FV3, supercells galore. Just posting this because it's interesting. Use other models for forecasting this is unreliable, for now anyways. Edited March 31, 2023 by Neoncyclone 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 hour ago, Grace said: I'm not an expert at this severe stuff so on 0z data for HRRR, NAM for my area in west ky: 1. STP increased 2. Instability increased 3. Dewpoint increased 4. Storm development is DEcreased Help me out here. Why is that? It should be a dangerous day in or near the northern/southern 15% (also 10%) risks for tornadoes on the SPC outlook. The southern 15%/10% tornado risk does include a bit of Kentucky. There's a chance the SPC could shift the southern tornado risk area, southward, down towards northern Mississippi, away from Kentucky. With the high-end wind shear, pretty much everybody in any of the risk areas should try to keep aware of the situation, and even watch out for 40mph non-thunderstorm winds. It looks like the models have a squall line continuing into western Ohio, with low CAPE, later in the night. There could numerous wind damage reports from this even with the low CAPE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 37 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: New convective model RRFS A is up on Pivotalweather. It says it's a prototype made by NOAA so no idea how far along they are with fine-tuning things but it seems to have a case of the early FV3, supercells galore. Just posting this because it's interesting. Use other models for forecasting this is unreliable, for now anyways. Dang! Spercells everywhere! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 There is so much happening on the Plains. Like all fun times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted March 31, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 31, 2023 Got surprise showers today, even picked up more than a trace (0.02) won't do anything to limit the fire threat but just shows the strong movement of moisture right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 31, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 31, 2023 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Ingyball said: Got surprise showers today, even picked up more than a trace (0.02) won't do anything to limit the fire threat but just shows the strong movement of moisture right now. Managed to get upper 50 dew points ahead of the dryline today but couldn't break the cap. Either way, encouraging to see moisture overperform Edited March 31, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Not to go crazy here, but the HRRR 03z has a supercell with a possible high updraft-helicity (tornado?) in W Illinois, with this particular depiction showing a motion to Peoria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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