March 30-April 1, 2023 | Severe Weather | Destructive Tornado Outbreak with a double High Risk

[Neoncyclone]

Looks like they're going to be surveying the Robinson-Sullivan tornado for another day or two at least, there's a lot of homes on country roads through areas SW of Robinson. 

Some context for how much of a close call this was for me, the green circle is the county I live in. 

 

[Hoosier]

On 4/1/2023 at 3:05 PM, Hoosier said:

Have not been out there in person, but saw more damage pics and video.  Garages heavily damaged/destroyed, roof damage, trees down, fences down, etc.  Some debris in trees.  Aerial video shows the damage path seems to be fairly confined.  Have not seen anything yet from NWS Chicago but my unprofessional take would be that an EF1 tornado is most likely.

 

I win, well... nothing at all.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

94 confirmed tornadoes so far, 124 unfiltered tornado reports. As far as I'm aware, only 6 tornado outbreaks have produced more than 100 confirmed tornadoes. Approaching very rare territory, but still nothing we haven't seen before

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_records

[Hoosier]

We'll definitely get over 100 confirmed.  LOT is still surveying several areas of damage and some other offices are still surveying as well.

[so_whats_happening]

On 4/1/2023 at 4:03 PM, ClicheVortex2014 said:

The event is still producing. Not sure if there's been a break in the severe warnings, but we might have a derecho that resulted from the northern portion of the tornado outbreak. Widespread damaging winds is ongoing in Pennsylvania and western New York.

I would agree about the Derecho look. It had a very similar feel as if we were in summer that died off over central PA and reignited further east.

[Hoosier]

20 tornadoes and counting in the LOT cwa

[ElectricStorm]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_records

According to this Wikipedia page, 3/31-4/1 is now the 6th largest tornado outbreak in terms of overall tornadoes recorded in a 24hr span. Also interesting to note that there were 43 EF2+ tornadoes, which according to this page is 3rd most all time behind the two super outbreaks. I was a bit surprised to see that it beat 4/12/20 in that category, although 4/12 had more EF4+ (and maybe EF3+ but that isn't listed here). 

This is very likely the event of the year (at least let's hope so 😳). Hopefully we don't see another set up like this for a long time.

[ClicheVortex2014]

15 hours ago, ElectricStorm said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_records

According to this Wikipedia page, 3/31-4/1 is now the 6th largest tornado outbreak in terms of overall tornadoes recorded in a 24hr span. Also interesting to note that there were 43 EF2+ tornadoes, which according to this page is 3rd most all time behind the two super outbreaks. I was a bit surprised to see that it beat 4/12/20 in that category, although 4/12 had more EF4+ (and maybe EF3+ but that isn't listed here). 

This is very likely the event of the year (at least let's hope so 😳). Hopefully we don't see another set up like this for a long time.

I didn't catch that about the EF2+. Interesting. Shows this was generally a more supercellular event than Easter 2020. Also helps that some of the supercells in this case were cyclical.

I checked... Easter 2020 still had more EF3+ by like 6. So the supercells that did occur produced stronger tornadoes.

And yeah, this should be the outbreak of the year. If it's not, that would put 2023 in very rare territory. As far as I'm aware, 2011 and maybe 2008 are the only years that produced multiple events like this

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

I didn't catch that about the EF2+. Interesting. Shows this was generally a more supercellular event than Easter 2020. Also helps that some of the supercells in this case were cyclical.

I checked... Easter 2020 still had more EF3+ by like 6. So the supercells that did occur produced stronger tornadoes.

And yeah, this should be the outbreak of the year. If it's not, that would put 2023 in very rare territory. As far as I'm aware, 2011 and maybe 2008 are the only years that produced multiple events like this

Yes, those were the only years that featured over 2000 tornadoes with huge outbreaks.

[Hoosier]

The total just from the DVN and LOT cwa's is 50 tornadoes.  Would note that a couple tornadoes crossed from DVN into LOT, but surveying still isn't quite done so it's possible that there will be more.

[Iceresistance]

127 confirmed in 24 hours, it's already #5 in "Most tornadoes in 24 hours"

[Neoncyclone]

10 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

127 confirmed in 24 hours, it's already #5 in "Most tornadoes in 24 hours"

According to the wiki 127 is the total, 117 is the 24 hour period number, if we get 3 more it would tie the December 2021 derecho/tornado outbreak.

 

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, Neoncyclone said:

According to the wiki 127 is the total, 117 is the 24 hour period number, if we get 3 more it would tie the December 2021 derecho/tornado outbreak.

 

Whoops. 🤦‍♂️

[Hoosier]

Better detection in recent years, but this is still kind of impressive.

 

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Chicago IL
1050 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023 /1150 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023/

...NWS Damage Survey for 03/31/2023 Tornado Event Update #9...

This Public Information Statement update summarizes the findings
of the damage surveys that were conducted in the NWS Chicago
forecast area for the March 31st severe weather event. A total of
22 tornadoes were confirmed, which leaves 3/31/2023 tied with
6/30/2014 as the calendar date with the most tornadoes to occur
within the NWS Chicago forecast area since official NWS tornado
records began in 1950. The 22 tornadoes include 1 EF-U, 6 EF-0,
12 EF-1, and 3 EF-2 tornadoes.

[Neoncyclone]

Little update, the March 31st outbreak now holds the #3 spot for most tornadoes in a 24 hr period, beating out the 2020 easter outbreak by a single tornado. It beats Easter 2020 in total tornadoes as well by 2. 

[Ingyball]

On 4/20/2023 at 5:15 PM, Neoncyclone said:

Little update, the March 31st outbreak now holds the #3 spot for most tornadoes in a 24 hr period, beating out the 2020 easter outbreak by a single tornado. It beats Easter 2020 in total tornadoes as well by 2. 

The setup was definitely impressive. It's the exact one one of our meteorologist looks for with the upper jet bisecting the warm sector at a 240-270 angle. You can still get big outbreaks from a 200-230 or 270-300 angle, but the sweet spot is that 240-270 range.