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March 30-April 1, 2023 | Severe Weather | Destructive Tornado Outbreak with a double High Risk


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One of the most impressive large-scale outbreaks in the past decade imo. Off the top of my head, can only think of Easter 2020 that tops it. Gonna be hard to beat that one but we’ll see.

 

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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  • The title was changed to March 30th-April 1st, 2023 | Severe Weather | Destructive Tornado Outbreak with a double High Risk
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I am so appreciative of everyone's insightful posts in this thread. I know the forum generally gets the busiest during the winter months, but I have always been so grateful for our knowledgable severe weather posters. I come here first when nasty stuff is a'foot. 

With that being said.. central Ohio just got upgraded to a High Wind Warning. For like the bazillonth time in the past couple of months.

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1 minute ago, BuckeyeGal said:

I am so appreciative of everyone's insightful posts in this thread. I know the forum generally gets the busiest during the winter months, but I have always been so grateful for our knowledgable severe weather posters. I come here first when nasty stuff is a'foot. 

With that being said.. central Ohio just got upgraded to a High Wind Warning. For like the bazillonth time in the past couple of months.

It is crazy windy here as well. 

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I’m a little concerned about what’s about to go down here in eastern Ohio. 62 not a cloud in the sky the rotating updraft model is showing plenty between 12-230pm today short range models are showing 3-4 discreet cells and the winds at 10k feet are juiced around that time at 75-85mph which should come down to the ground up to 60mph gusts. Even if these storms down get much ground level rotation we had power outages last Saturday from the same winds we have more saturated ground and peoples power was our last week til Wednesday this could be an interesting few hours 

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44 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said:

I am so appreciative of everyone's insightful posts in this thread. I know the forum generally gets the busiest during the winter months, but I have always been so grateful for our knowledgable severe weather posters. I come here first when nasty stuff is a'foot. 

With that being said.. central Ohio just got upgraded to a High Wind Warning. For like the bazillonth time in the past couple of months.

We just got upgraded as well. 
Is there a reason why over the past year it’s been so windy. 
We just had some gusts to about 55mph. It’s gonna be a long day. Hopefully the power stays on for everyone.

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Looks like SPC is about to upgrade to enhanced. Newest MD mentions the outlook will have a 30% wind area 

MD 428 graphic

Quote
Mesoscale Discussion 0428
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1015 AM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023

   Areas affected...eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania and New York

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 011515Z - 011745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms producing damaging winds appear increasingly likely
   today, beginning over eastern Ohio and moving quickly into parts of
   New York and Pennsylvania.

   DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows strong heating occurring over
   the region, with storms beginning to form ahead of the cold
   front/vort max. Despite low dewpoints, very steep deep-layer lapse
   rates, strong shear and substantial mixing of high winds aloft will
   likely yield wind gusts in excess of 50 kt over much of the area. As
   such, a watch is likely, and the outlook will feature a 30% severe
   wind probability.

   ..Jewell/Guyer.. 04/01/2023

 

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2 hours ago, BuckeyeGal said:

I am so appreciative of everyone's insightful posts in this thread. I know the forum generally gets the busiest during the winter months, but I have always been so grateful for our knowledgable severe weather posters. I come here first when nasty stuff is a'foot. 

With that being said.. central Ohio just got upgraded to a High Wind Warning. For like the bazillonth time in the past couple of months.

I'd echo that.  This was the first really big/widespread severe wx outbreak that I've been here for, and the amount of participation was impressive.  It was almost hard to keep up with the thread at times.  And we'll do it again in a few days by all indications.

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Not sure when the last time we saw an outbreak so widespread that spanned multiple latitudes. The Easter 2020 outbreak was over a large area but mostly along the same latitudes.  

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On the topic of double high risk... another case of what probably would've been a double high risk with todays technology is the Veterans Day 2002 Outbreak. SPC had a high risk for the southern portion but they only have a slight/moderate for the Ohio one. Didn't upgrade to high until 01z. Can't blame them because I'm sure the models they had at the time didn't handle this well at all. 

2002 Veterans Day weekend tornado outbreak - Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Veterans_Day_weekend_tornado_outbreak

 

I'd argue there's a case to be made that, with todays technology, the 1974 Super Outbreak would either be one huge high risk or a double high risk. After a day like yesterday where we have an outbreak on a similar latitudinal range, it's hard to contemplate a version of yesterday but on a far high magnitude which was 4/3/74.

Looking back at the April 3-4, 1974 Super Outbreak - ustornadoes.com

https://www.ustornadoes.com/2013/04/03/looking-back-at-the-april-3-4-1974-super-outbreak/

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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