March 30-April 1, 2023 | Severe Weather | Destructive Tornado Outbreak with a double High Risk

[Ingyball]

Right now timing is the biggest issue across the Central Plains, need the system to be 12 hours slower or 12 hours faster lol. I'm getting really worried about a potential sting jet setup over parts of the Plains and with how dry we've been perhaps a dust storm on Friday.

[Iceresistance]

SREF is thinking that Friday could be the big one, even though that Friday is still out of range on the SREF.

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[ElectricStorm]

I don't really see Thursday doing much right now, maybe a few isolated supercells but probably not a big event. 

Friday will definitely be the main show here, still a few more days before we can fine tune the details but I do think this has potential to be a higher end setup. 

[Neoncyclone]

46 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

 

First 30% day 5 that's been in my area in a long time

[Iceresistance]

The CFS model is showing the possibility on what happens if the storm system slows down significantly for Friday's setup to be over me instead of Thursday.

[ElectricStorm]

The April 3-5 timeframe is also looking pretty interesting, I bet we'll probably see some more highlighted areas in the extended SPC outlooks over the next few days.

12z CIPS is running now, 0z was very active for Friday, with some high risk days and significant outbreaks in there. We'll see if they continue to show up on future runs.

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=MV&fhr=F120&rundt=2023032700&map=thbSVR

[Ingyball]

I'm getting real concerned about the wind potential here on Friday. December 15th vibes but about 100 miles further south. Would not be surprised to see a similar severe event in northern Missouri and southern Iowa as well. Especially if the GFS is correct. Both the GFS and Canadian are showing 60 to 70 mph gusts already and the GFS has a 70-80kt jet streak over Kansas and Oklahoma. Wind direction would also make things dusty. Will make a more detailed post later. 

[Hoosier]

Definitely has my interest.  Famous last words but can't find a whole lot wrong with Friday at this point.  Will be keeping an eye on moisture return with northward extent toward/north of I-80, as that is a less climo favored area for significant severe at this time of year, but I feel like what's modeled is probably good enough and anything more would just up the ante.

[beaver56]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Definitely has my interest.  Famous last words but can't find a whole lot wrong with Friday at this point.  Will be keeping an eye on moisture return with northward extent toward/north of I-80, as that is a less climo favored area for significant severe at this time of year, but I feel like what's modeled is probably good enough and anything more would just up the ante.

Friday could definitely be a bumpy day in Illinois and Indiana. 

[Ingyball]

So one thing that I look for with a potential sting jet is a dry tongue aka dry punch where a punch of drier air cuts into the surface low. It's most evident on the 12z Ukie but the GFS and Canadian have it as well. This punch acts as a source of lift allowing the 500mb winds to come crashing down. 

 

The Ukie has the strongest 500mb winds approaching 120 kts while the GFS is weaker at about 85 to 90 kts. Take the middle ground (Canadian) and you have a powerful jet streak at 500mb that could lead extreme wind gusts at the surface. 

 

 

 

 

 

Finally with how dry it's been dust will likely spread all the way here to southern Kansas. Would not be surprised if it's bad enough to be a Haboob out in southwest Kansas or the Panhandles. 

[Central Illinois]

ILX sounding the alarm on this one mentioning theirs "potentially" 3 rounds of severe weather friday...also mentions "Friday afternoon could be a severe event of unusual magnitude for the area"

[Central Illinois]

ILX with a huge writeup for the afternoon afd about this situation

Edited March 27, 2023 by Central Illinois

[ClicheVortex2014]

5 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

So one thing that I look for with a potential sting jet is a dry tongue aka dry punch where a punch of drier air cuts into the surface low. It's most evident on the 12z Ukie but the GFS and Canadian have it as well. This punch acts as a source of lift allowing the 500mb winds to come crashing down. 

 

The Ukie has the strongest 500mb winds approaching 120 kts while the GFS is weaker at about 85 to 90 kts. Take the middle ground (Canadian) and you have a powerful jet streak at 500mb that could lead extreme wind gusts at the surface. 

 

 

 

 

 

Finally with how dry it's been dust will likely spread all the way here to southern Kansas. Would not be surprised if it's bad enough to be a Haboob out in southwest Kansas or the Panhandles. 

Yeah Thursday and Friday are looking like the most serious fire weather days since I've been here. RFTI of 7-8 in the northwest on Thursday and also on Friday in the southern Texas Panhandle. 30-35+ sustained winds with ~10% RH is not good.

Edited March 27, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[Neoncyclone]

3 hours ago, Central Illinois said:

ILX with a huge writeup for the afternoon afd about this situation

They actually mention my little town in that discussion, luckily they're saying there's only a 40% of surface based CAPE in our area on the east side of S Illinois, of course a lot of that can and will change when high-resolution models get into range.

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[FortySixAnd32]

March-In like a lamb....Out like a lion....

[Hoosier]

Early-ish look at forecast soundings for Friday shows some pretty nasty shear across a sizable area, especially speed shear.  I think the bigger question is directional shear.  Shouldn't have a problem having backed low level flow near the surface low, but not sure about areas farther south in the warm sector.  The surface low is progged to be deepening on Friday.  Conceptually, that should at least prevent an excessive amount of veering of the low level flow in much of the warm sector, but details like that will need to be sorted out as we get closer.  

If this one doesn't live up to expectations, there'll be another shot around the middle of next week by all indications.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Ratcheting up the wording here for the fire weather threat on Thursday and Friday. This novel brought to you by yours truly. 

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023

The primary concerns in the long-term will be high wind and
potentially high-end fire weather conditions on Thursday and Friday.
Critical fire weather conditions may return Sunday and Monday.

A strong upper-level trough will be present over southern California
Thursday morning, moving east throughout the day. Strong upper-level
flow over the Rockies will maintain lee cyclogenesis, culminating in
a surface low around 990mb by 7pm. Seemingly along with the
deepening low, 700mb winds will also strengthen throughout the day,
but especially during the Thursday 7pm-Friday 1am timeframe. These
factors set the stage for a high wind event for the northwest
combined Panhandles that peaks in the latter half of the afternoon
into the early evening. Sustained winds will be in the 35-45 mph
range during the afternoon to early evening hours, but will remain
in the 20-30 mph range through the evening. Additionally,
approximately the northwest half of the Panhandles will be in the
right exit region of a strong jet streak, creating the potential for
the combination of subsidence and windy surface conditions to help
continue strong gusts through the evening. DESI wind gust
probabilities show that the peak winds, or perhaps greatest
certainty in 50+ mph gusts, will be in the late afternoon/early
evening hours. However, probabilities stay elevated through the
evening, suggesting we may see some 50+ mph gusts, but diminishing
as the evening goes on. As of Tuesday morning, DESI shows that
Cimarron county has a 60% chance of exceeding a 50 mph gust around 6-
7pm, dropping to 30% by 10pm, and around 10% by Midnight. NBM
probabilities won`t go hour-by-hour like DESI, but the 24-hour NBM
probabilities show max probabilities similar to DESI. As if the
winds weren`t enough, RH values will be very low in the area,
bottoming out at around 9% for a couple hours around 5-7pm. With
no clouds expected, won`t be surprised if that`s even too high.
Therefore, higher-end fire weather conditions are expected in the
northwest.

The severe weather threat, which was already looking iffy, has
become even less noteworthy. Although the easternmost row of
counties will likely see dew points in the upper-40s to mid-50s,
capping will be an issue. Hypothetically, even if parcels were to be
forced through the capped layer, it likely won`t even have 500 J/kg
with which to work. Therefore, barring a big change, severe weather
is no longer a concern in our area. However, there is a signal that
strong winds... sustained 30-35 mph gusting over 50... will be
possible in the easternmost counties through 1am Friday. RH values
will be much higher than in the northwest, in the 30s and 40s, so
fire weather shouldn`t be much of a concern.

The system moves off to the northeast through Thursday night. The
surface low will move with it and deepen through Friday, keeping the
surface pressure gradient tight despite moving away from the area. A
strong 700mb jet will be over the southern half of the Texas
Panhandle through the first roughly 18 hours of the day. There
likely won`t be much of a nocturnal inversion by the time mixing
starts Friday, so it won`t take long for strong gusts to begin in
the south. If that wasn`t enough, an increasing portion of the area
will be in the left entrance region of the jet streak, adding
subsidence to the mix. Sustained winds of 30-40 mph are expected
Friday with gusts over 55 possible. DESI shows a 20-35% chance for
gusts to exceed 50 mph in the eastern half of the Panhandles. NBM
probabilities are slightly more aggressive, with an area of 20-45%
to exceed 55 mph (note: 5 mph greater than DESI) over the east-
central portion of the Texas Panhandle. Again, RH will be very low
on Friday, with widespread values of 8-10% for much of the southern
half of the Texas Panhandle. Again, with no clouds expected, won`t be
surprised if that`s still too high. Therefore, another day of
higher-end fire weather conditions are expected, this time for the
southern half of the Texas Panhandle. Winds should begin to calm down
in the late afternoon hours as the system moves off to the
northeast, we lose some of the strong winds aloft, and the surface
pressure gradient weakens.

Another shortwave is expected to move through the area this weekend,
though there are currently timing differences. Regardless, seems
relatively unimpactful. Strong zonal flow over the Colorado Rockies
will lead to robust lee cyclogenesis Sunday, bringing back some fire
weather concerns as we remain very dry and become windy again.
Monday will be more of the same. All deterministic models and their
respectively ensemble means depict another trough dipping into the
western US, which will likely be our next area to watch later next
week.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023

There is plenty of reason for concern for critical fire weather on
Thursday and Friday.

Thursday... RH around 9% will be present in the
northwest with 35-45 mph sustained southwesterly winds, potentially
gusting above 55 mph. Won`t be surprised if RH dips below 9% as a
clear sky is forecast. If it does and it coincides with sustained
winds above 41 mph, won`t be surprised to see a 9 RFTI in Cimarron
county. Otherwise, RFTI of 7-8 is expected.

Friday... 8-10% RH will be present across the southern half of the
Texas Panhandle. Again, won`t be surprised if RH is even lower as a
clear sky is forecast. 30-40 mph sustained westerly winds are
expected, potentially gusting above 55 mph. RFTI of 7-8 is expected
again, but on a larger scale than Thursday.

Although RFTI will be on the higher-end of the scale, ERC Percentile
will be more moderate. 70-80% is expected on Thursday in the
northwest, and 70-85% is expected on Friday in the southern half of
the Texas Panhandle. The expected lack of very dry fuels lowers
confidence in a fire outbreak occurring, though any fire that does
get started on either day may get out of control quickly.

 

Edited March 29, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[Ingyball]

Haven't been able to look at models today but I did drive across central/northeast/south-central Kansas today and the grass looks primed for a fire. Seems like they haven't been able to get as much burning done in the Flint Hills this year

[StormfanaticInd]

Looking like a solid QLCS event for me

[StormfanaticInd]

WOW😱

 

[Iceresistance]

One of the LARGEST Enhanced Risks I have ever seen, there is definitely room for a Moderate.

[StormfanaticInd]

 

7 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

WOW😱

 

 

Heading into early next week, severe potential will increase once
   again for portions of the central/south-central U.S. vicinity. A
   large-scale upper trough will dig south and east across the western
   states on Day 6/Mon. Timing differences are apparent in medium range
   guidance, but stronger southwesterly deep-layer flow should approach
   the southern Plains by late Mon/early Tue. As this occurs, intense
   surface cyclogenesis is forecast to occur over the central High
   Plains overnight. The ensuing mass response will spread Gulf
   moisture northward across the south-central states toward the lower
   MO Valley by Day 7/Tue morning. A conditional severe threat could
   develop over portions of the central/southern Plains Day 6/Mon
   night, but confidence is too low to delineate a 15 percent severe
   area at this time. However, on Tuesday, as the upper trough ejects
   east and spreads intense deep-layer southwesterly flow over the
   Lower/Mid-MS Valley to the Ohio Valley, a sharp cold front will
   surge east. Rich gulf moisture across a broad warm sector will
   supply plenty of instability, and potentially widespread severe
   thunderstorms will once again be possible across the Mid-MS/Lower OH
   Valley toward the Mid-South and TN Valley.