DJKuo Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 For those interested, here's a brand spanking new short range forecast model for severe weather called Cb-WoFS that my brother-in-law has been working on for the past few years. This model runs every 30 min with new data input every 15 min and has proven to be quite accurate for super short range forecast. https://cbwofs.nssl.noaa.gov/Forecast?model=WOFSRun20230331-141327&rd=20230331&rt=202303311730&product=uh_2to5__paintballs_thresh_70§or=wofs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger89 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Sun is out here in Indy Still overcast in Seymour, about 50 miles south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 Transferring to the next page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 Clinton, west of Conway, and Hot Springs, AR are under the gun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted March 31, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 31, 2023 Four active tornado warnings in close vicinity.. they look like quadruplets.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted March 31, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Clinton, west of Conway, and Hot Springs, AR are under the gun. This one has a reported funnel cloud spotted. The rest are radar-indicated rotation (at least that I can see). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 Just now, BuckeyeGal said: This one has a reported funnel cloud spotted. The rest are radar-indicated rotation (at least that I can see). And the one in Hot Springs is down, with a CC Drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boomer295 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Feels like it's gonna be a long day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cer5059 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 68k viewers on Ryan's page right now....wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted March 31, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 31, 2023 Many schools in the Level 5 risk area have chosen to dismiss early (including Arkansas). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 (edited) 1 minute ago, BuckeyeGal said: Many schools in the Level 5 risk area have chosen to dismiss early (including Arkansas). As a school admin that is a very, very good call. I have a senior and freshman that are on spring break and told my wife to make sure they are home tonight. In our area that 10 to 12 timeframe could be pretty nasty. Edited March 31, 2023 by beaver56 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted March 31, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 (edited) AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 128 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023 INITIAL CONCERNS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE GROWING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NOW CROSSING FROM NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS OF 1PM/18Z. THE PRIMARY QUESTION IS NOW FOCUSED ON HOW FAR NORTHEAST SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION CAN REACH TO AND THEN EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST CAM/WOFS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THE LONGEVITY OF MORE ROBUST CONVECTION LASTING THROUGH OUR AREA FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LA SALLE COUNTY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CHICAGO METRO. RAPID DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR GIVEN AN UNUSUAL AND UNEXPECTED AMOUNT OF CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF ILLINOIS WITH THIS TYPE OF DYNAMIC SYSTEM (NEARLY 70F ALL THE WAY INTO THE CHICAGO METRO). A SUBTLE SURFACE MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY EXTENDING ESE FROM WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS HAS BECOME A BIT DIFFUSE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IS GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND CLOSING IN ON OUR FAR SOUTHWEST CWA. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A RAPID EROSION OF MLCIN INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF OUR CWA CONCURRENT WITH CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST (~3-5PM). THEREFORE, THE LIKELIHOOD OF TRUE SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION ENTERING OUR CWA HAS INCREASED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS FAVOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, INCLUDING AN INHERENT RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES WITH ANY FULLY SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS. THE GREATEST RISK INITIALLY FAVORS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CWA, BUT IF THE STORMS CAN KEEP PACE WITH THE NORTHEAST MOISTURE TRANSPORT, WE NEED TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE INTO EAST-CENTRAL IL THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CHICAGO METRO. KLUBER Edited March 31, 2023 by Hoosier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 Just now, Hoosier said: Why is this empty? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 minute ago, Central Illinois said: As he slowly gets up to go clean his pants out! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger89 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 13 minutes ago, Roger89 said: Still overcast in Seymour, about 50 miles south. But it just cleared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Why is this empty? Formatting issue. I fixed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohioweather Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Still pretty cloudy here in NW Ohio 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 So many areas to watch right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boomer295 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Looks like the previously tornado-warned storm in Iowa might be about to go again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted March 31, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 31, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted March 31, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 31, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 (edited) 2 minutes ago, nwohioweather said: Still pretty cloudy here in NW Ohio Not really much expected around here anyways. Maybe a nice little squall around 10pm-midnight with some gusty winds and a rumble of thunder but that’s about it. Edited March 31, 2023 by NWOhioChaser 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohioweather Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 minute ago, NWOhioChaser said: Not really much expected around here anyways. Maybe a nice little squall around 10pm-midnight with some gusty winds and a rumble of thunder but that’s about it. Yep, I'm in Defiance, so pretty close to that Moderate, but the clouds are helping me stay a bit more relaxed about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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