Chinook Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 Decent rotation at Traskwood, AR. That location has a tornado warning now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 Quote Mesoscale Discussion 0324 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023 Areas affected...Northeastern LA...southeastern AR...western MS Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 242156Z - 250000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The supercell tornado risk will gradually increase over the next couple hours across portions of the Lower MS Valley. Several tornadoes (some strong to intense) are possible. A tornado watch will be needed in the next 30-60 min. DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations show rich boundary-layer moisture (middle/upper 60s dewpoints) spreading northward across portions of the Lower MS Valley -- aided by ongoing cyclogenesis near the ArkLaTex vicinity. Earlier diurnal heating and a strengthening low-level jet over the warm sector have aided in the development of north/south-oriented confluence bands extending from LA northward into southeastern AR and western MS. Isolated convection is evolving along these bands in the warm sector -- ahead of a primary pre-frontal trough farther west. During the next couple hours, these storms should continue spreading northward and maturing as large-scale ascent and surface pressure falls continue amid increasing boundary-layer moisture. The downstream environment will feature enlarging/clockwise-turning low-level hodographs favorable for increasingly organized cyclonic supercells. And, given the subtle low-level forcing mechanism, a discrete or semi-discrete mode is possible for at least a few hours. Therefore, the supercell tornado risk (some strong to intense) will gradually increase as storms mature during the next few hours, with large hail and locally damaging winds also possible. A tornado watch will likely be issued in the next 30-60 min. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 03/24/2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 24, 2023 Author Share Posted March 24, 2023 Tornado Watch up, it's not a PDS, but very strongly worded. Maybe just shy of a PDS watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 76 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 515 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Arkansas Northeastern Louisiana Central and northern Mississippi Western Tennessee * Effective this Friday afternoon from 515 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A maturing squall line will surge eastward from Arkansas into western Tennessee and northwestern Mississippi through early tonight, with an accompanying threat for swaths of damaging winds (up to 75 mph) and tornadoes with embedded circulations. Farther south, a few semi-discrete supercells are expected ahead of the squall line, from northeast Louisiana across southeastern Arkansas and west central/northwestern Mississippi. A few strong-intense tornadoes will be possible in this corridor with any persistent supercells later this evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 120 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northwest of Memphis TN to 20 miles south of Natchez MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 75... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23050. ...Thompson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 Probabilities have to be as close to a PDS watch as you can get. Quote Tornadoes Probability of 2 or more tornadoes High (90%) Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes High (70%) Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (80%) Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots High (70%) Hail Probability of 10 or more severe hail events Mod (40%) Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches Low (10%) Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 24, 2023 Author Share Posted March 24, 2023 Just now, snowlover2 said: Probabilities have to be as close to a PDS watch as you can get. Highest Non-PDS watch I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Probabilities have to be as close to a PDS watch as you can get. I think in recent years, the PDS watches have all had 80% or higher EF2+ probs, I've seen a few 90/70 watches over the last few years and none of them have been PDS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 Looks like one of the semi-discrete cells in Central LA is trying to organize, everything else around it is still looking a bit messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 one cell south of Jackson is isolated and could become a supercell quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 24, 2023 Author Share Posted March 24, 2023 @CentralLA_Wx, there is one coming for you! Take a picture of the mesocyclone if you can! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 24, 2023 Author Share Posted March 24, 2023 The Low-Level Lapse rates are apparently very poor right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted March 24, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 24, 2023 The storm near Jackson has my attention. Might be an rare high base storm for Dixie based on the nearby environment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralLA_Wx Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 10 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: @CentralLA_Wx, there is one coming for you! Take a picture of the mesocyclone if you can! Got this pic at 5:45. Nothing too noteworthy here. https://imgur.com/a/05bkEx8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 9 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: The Low-Level Lapse rates are apparently very poor right now. Per mesoanalysis low-level lapse rates are definitely struggling, could be making it more difficult for storms to really mature, kind of makes sense that the storm that looks the best right now in SW MS is near the best LLLR's in the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 24, 2023 Author Share Posted March 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, CentralLA_Wx said: Got this pic at 5:45. Nothing too noteworthy here. https://imgur.com/a/05bkEx8 Yeah, the Low-level Lapse rates are very poor right now over you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 24, 2023 Author Share Posted March 24, 2023 (edited) Tornado Warning for Pine Bluff, AR I have an IDriveArkansas camera just north of Pine Bluff, but it appears that the tornado will miss to the city to the south unless it jumps north. Edited March 24, 2023 by Iceresistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 24, 2023 Author Share Posted March 24, 2023 Supercell near Jackson, MS is really starting to get its act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 24, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 24, 2023 Definitely the cell to watch. Ingesting cells and completely discrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 (edited) Yeah the Jackson, MS supercell is starting to get that look Edited March 24, 2023 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 24, 2023 Author Share Posted March 24, 2023 Tornado Warning incoming for the Jackson, MS Supercell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 24, 2023 Author Share Posted March 24, 2023 Tornado Warning in Mississippi! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 It kind of looks like a debris ball already, and I was just not looking at the radar for 5 minutes. I don't think there's a debris signature, though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Mainiac Posted March 24, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 24, 2023 That is the most tornado looking radar reflection I think I've ever seen. It's textbook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 24, 2023 Author Share Posted March 24, 2023 How has this not produced a tornado yet!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 Just now, Iceresistance said: How has this not produced a tornado yet!? It may have been elevated earlier so it might take some time for it to work its way down and become surface based. Velocity is starting to slowly look a little better now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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