Ohiobuckeye45 Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 (edited) id still rather have this side of the storm, than the other Edited March 22, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NKYSnowLover Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 24 minutes ago, Hiramite said: 😳 RAIN BULLSEYE! Never fails for winter fans. The bullseye we almost always get and never want to see 😆 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted March 22, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 22, 2023 28 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: id still rather have this side of the storm, than the other I agreed with you…so to confirm, you meant the snowy side right? 😝 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 0z HRRR isn't as intense for my area as the 12z and 18z runs were, but I'm definitely concerned about hail potential. Shouldn't be a big tornado day but there's probably going to be some monster hailers out there, hopefully they avoid all populated areas. The bigger story here though is Friday, which is quickly becoming a potential major tornado event. SPC has upgraded to moderate with a 15 hatched tornado area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 Interesting look to it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 23, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 23, 2023 One thing that might help tomorrows outbreak is that it looks like the low will strengthen quite a bit from 12z tomorrow through 6z Saturday. Means it’s maturing, taking a negative tilt, height falls in the warm sector support discrete supercells, and a stronger system/stronger winds aloft with the negative tilt at night means stronger moisture transport to keep severe threat going. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 23, 2023 Author Share Posted March 23, 2023 Under a Thunderstorm Watch, 10/20% Tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 Looks like I'm north of the cold front now so that should mean not really any tornado threat for me which is great. Getting some good rain from a nice storm now, still concerned about big hail potential later though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 The new MD format is kinda neat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 Tomorrow could get interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 Nasty supercell about to cross I-40 near Okemah. Warned for 2 in hail but could be a tornado threat if it doesn't go north of the front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 23, 2023 Author Share Posted March 23, 2023 14 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: The new MD format is kinda neat. Yeah, I noticed it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 23, 2023 Author Share Posted March 23, 2023 Just now, ElectricStorm said: Nasty supercell about to cross I-40 near Okemah. Warned for 2 in hail but could be a tornado threat if it doesn't go north of the front Yeah, the hail looks really nasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 23, 2023 Author Share Posted March 23, 2023 Ping Pong Ball hail reported on I-40 in Eastern Oklahoma near Okemah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted March 23, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 23, 2023 Interesting battle between the Globals and mesoscale models with the orientation of the upper trough tomorrow. The GFS/ECMWF/CMC want it oriented more meridionally while the NAM has it more zonal. This is important because the global models would favor linear growth over supercells if they are correct. That jet orientation signals strong forcing and it's difficult for storms to stay discrete without strong capping in place. The NAM, however would signal less forcing and would be the bigger supercell and tornado threat. Something to watch in the mesoanlysis phase tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 22 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: id still rather have this side of the storm, than the other Looks like foreign models are ticking SE closer to GFS. Could be more white paste on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 23, 2023 Author Share Posted March 23, 2023 Severe Thunderstorm Warning for my county for Quarter Sized Hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 Severe warning just to my south now, which is fine by me, we've gotten some solid storms so far. Flash flood warnings going up for the eastern part of the state as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 2 hours ago, snowlover2 said: The new MD format is kinda neat. Just noticed that, I'm a big fan! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 23, 2023 Author Share Posted March 23, 2023 Just had a brief hailstorm of peas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 Might have some tennis balls in N TX. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Norman OK 638 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023 TXC023-487-240000- /O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-230324T0000Z/ Wilbarger TX-Baylor TX- 638 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN WILBARGER AND NORTHERN BAYLOR COUNTIES... At 637 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles northwest of Lake Kemp, moving east-northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tennis ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. Locations impacted include... Lake Kemp and ranch land of southern Wilbarger and northern Baylor Counties. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3385 9948 3385 9947 3386 9947 3401 9909 3370 9902 3369 9947 TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 252DEG 27KT 3380 9934 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 Marginal risk expanded into SW OH for the rest of tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 0z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 Broad 1-3" seems reasonable. Higher in the thunderstorms of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 24, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 24, 2023 (edited) ARW keeps this solely a linear event. NSSL has some semi-discrete cells for south and east Arkansas and a nasty squall for western KY. The supercell machine, FV3, doesn't do its job. Spits out some supercells at the end of the squall but that's about it. HRRR keeps a semi-discrete supercell threat for Louisiana Edited March 24, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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