ElectricStorm Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 12z CIPS analog runs are in, Thursday is even less impressive than last night's run. Friday remains impressive (still ignoring #11) with 2/5/08 now being the #1 analog. I doubt that happens, but there does seem to be some solid tornado potential for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 18z GFS still with lots of rain and now getting a little frisky with backside snow with the wave of precip Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 20, 2023 Author Share Posted March 20, 2023 2 hours ago, ElectricStorm said: 12z CIPS analog runs are in, Thursday is even less impressive than last night's run. Friday remains impressive (still ignoring #11) with 2/5/08 now being the #1 analog. I doubt that happens, but there does seem to be some solid tornado potential for Friday. 15z SREF currently has Thursday and the STI is maxed at 30% in Eastern Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 3 hours ago, Iceresistance said: 15z SREF currently has Thursday and the STI is maxed at 30% in Eastern Oklahoma. I'm not really sold on Thursday being a big tornado day, shear doesn't look too great, and moisture return could be an issue, at least for parts of OK. Definitely should be a big hail/wind day though and we'll probably see at least a few tors. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 21, 2023 Author Share Posted March 21, 2023 9 hours ago, ElectricStorm said: I'm not really sold on Thursday being a big tornado day, shear doesn't look too great, and moisture return could be an issue, at least for parts of OK. Definitely should be a big hail/wind day though and we'll probably see at least a few tors. SPC is not very interested in Oklahoma getting the severe weather right now, Western Texas may get it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 Kind of shocked that ILN already put that graphic out. Typically, they wait until a little closer. Obviously, they are pretty sold on models as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted March 21, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 21, 2023 The QPF side of things…good golly Ms. Molly. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 (edited) 3 hours ago, Iceresistance said: SPC is not very interested in Oklahoma getting the severe weather right now, Western Texas may get it though. Yeah looks like storm mode will be pretty messy along the front. Combine that with the parallel shear vectors and that's not gonna get it done. Could end up being a decent rain event though hopefully. Still should get some big hailers and maybe some wind in TX though, but the overall event is looking pretty meh. Edited March 21, 2023 by ElectricStorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted March 21, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 21, 2023 4 hours ago, Hiramite said: The QPF side of things…good golly Ms. Molly. Looks like 1-2" here is a safe bet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 (edited) Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes, are possible across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday. ...Synopsis... The upper pattern early Friday morning will likely be characterized by broad troughing across the western CONUS and subtropical ridging centered over the Straits of Florida. Enhanced mid-level flow will extend throughout western and southern periphery of the upper trough and then throughout the northwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move from the base of the upper trough quickly eastward across the southern Plains throughout the day, and then more northeastward across the Mid-South overnight. Strong mid-level flow (i.e. 100 kt at 500-mb) will accompany this shortwave, spreading across TX into the Mid-South. The surface pattern preceding this shortwave trough is expected to feature a low over north TX early Friday, with a cold front extending southward from this low into the TX Hill Country and a stationary front extending northeastward into the Middle OH Valley. This low is forecast to move northeastward throughout the day, while deepening significantly. ...Lower MS Valley... Expectation is for a broad area of upper 60s dewpoints to be in place from east TX across the Lower MS Valley, ahead of the surface low and associated front. Cloud cover may temper daytime heating, but afternoon temperatures will likely still reach the 80s, contributing to moderate buoyancy across much of the region. In addition to this buoyancy, moderate mid-level flow atop strengthening low-level flow (supported by the maturing cyclone ahead of the approaching shortwave trough) will contribute to long hodographs with substantial low-level magnitude and veering. As a result, the environment will be very favorable for supercells. Current expectation is for storms to develop during the afternoon over southwest AR and western LA (perhaps as far west as east TX). This development should occur ahead of the cold front within the open warm sector, maturing as it moves eastward across the Lower MS Valley. A discrete supercell mode is anticipated initially, with all severe hazards possible, including strong tornadoes. Upscale growth into a convective line is anticipated after this initially discrete mode, with the line pushing eastward across MS and AL overnight. ...Mid MS Valley... Despite less buoyancy that areas farther south, augmented forcing for ascent close to the surface low could result in bowing line segments capable of damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes Friday afternoon through Friday evening. ..Mosier.. 03/22/2023 Edited March 22, 2023 by StormfanaticInd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 22, 2023 Author Share Posted March 22, 2023 I'm under the Slight Risk again for Tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 22, 2023 Author Share Posted March 22, 2023 I had to push the start of the Severe weather to today for a Marginal Risk in Northern Indiana, Northern Illinois, Northern Missouri, and Southern Iowa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 22, 2023 Author Share Posted March 22, 2023 12z HRRR is terrifying! Even for @ElectricStorm and @voltwaffle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted March 22, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 22, 2023 At this point I just hope the storm pattern stays this active when it shifts north. We've been in the dry slot region for every storm but that February squall line. NAM has some backside rain for south-central Kansas but I don't trust those amounts lol. I'd take them in a heartbeat if we got them though lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 2 hours ago, Iceresistance said: I had to push the start of the Severe weather to today for a Marginal Risk in Northern Indiana, Northern Illinois, Northern Missouri, and Southern Iowa. Today is the 22nd so I don’t think you had to change it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 Getting ready for some heavy rain. We got a good deal in the beginning of the month and then snow for the middle now ending it with more heavy rain… sounds like a March to me honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 22, 2023 Author Share Posted March 22, 2023 30 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Today is the 22nd so I don’t think you had to change it. Corrected it, I thought today was the 21st! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 22, 2023 Author Share Posted March 22, 2023 This is new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 22, 2023 Author Share Posted March 22, 2023 Tomorrow morning as well? Really? Tomorrow Afternoon, and that is when things can get really nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 22, 2023 Author Share Posted March 22, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 12z HRRR out here trying to give us like 3-4 rounds of storms tomorrow lol Obviously I'm interested in tomorrow since that involves my area but I'm getting pretty concerned about Friday. Really starting to look like a potentially big tornado day after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 1 hour ago, ElectricStorm said: 12z HRRR out here trying to give us like 3-4 rounds of storms tomorrow lol Obviously I'm interested in tomorrow since that involves my area but I'm getting pretty concerned about Friday. Really starting to look like a potentially big tornado day after all. Hope everyone stays safe. May need a boat here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoroBuckeye Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 Does the low location look familiar?! 😂😂😂😂 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted March 22, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 22, 2023 😳 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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