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March 22-28, 2023 | Severe Weather/Heavy Rain/Flooding


Iceresistance

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Tomorrow looks like a little potential sleeper setup for IL/IN.  SPC has a marginal risk only for wind.  However, there is enough shear and low level CAPE that I would not be surprised to see an isolated tornado threat manifest.  

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29 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Tomorrow looks like a little potential sleeper setup for IL/IN.  SPC has a marginal risk only for wind.  However, there is enough shear and low level CAPE that I would not be surprised to see an isolated tornado threat manifest.  

Really? Interesting 

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1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Really? Interesting 

No guarantees, but yes I think it's possible.  Thermodynamically, we've had some setups not too different from this one that produced earlier in the winter.  

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10 hours ago, ElectricStorm said:

 

I was wondering what they got for peak velocity, officially. I was seeing it in that range and then it would peak at 140.9 mph in  Radarscope which was possibly out of bounds? in the scale at tilt 1.
 

 

 

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The SPC has an enhanced risk for tomorrow. The surface based CAPE will be 2000 J/kg near/after sunset. The 0-6km shear will be 50kt-60kt near the front. Several rounds of thunderstorms will fire up over a long time period, a lot of the daytime and nighttime at the stationary front.

 

uh25_max.us_se.png

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In this MRMS rotation track, I'm not sure what happened with the system. There are many of gaps in the data on the west side, but there shouldn't be. I think maybe those light blue colors may bit a bit off too. This shows the track of the rotation of the main supercell all the way across Mississippi and also northern cells. The northern cells ended up producing tornadoes in Alabama late at night.

rotation tracks 3 25 2023.jpg

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Here are the highest winds I could find for some of the WFO's near/surrounding OH.

CLE:   Oregon, OH  74

BUF:  Tonawanda, NY  73

IWX (N. Indiana):  Van Wert OH  68

PBZ (Pitts):  Venango County PA  61

ILN (Willmington, OH):  Columbus & Lancaster  60

CTP (State College):  Somerset PA  54

 

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  • The title was changed to March 22nd-27th, 2023 | Severe Weather/Heavy Rain/Flooding
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Not sure about the last time I've seen a moderate risk for tornadoes with a setup like this. Very odd. Usually is good for some generally non-tornadic supercells like yesterday. Usually hard to get enough low-level shear.

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Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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33 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Not sure about the last time I've seen a moderate risk for tornadoes with a setup like this. Very odd. Usually is good for some generally non-tornadic supercells like yesterday. Usually hard to get enough low-level shear.

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The HRRR has backed winds at the surface out ahead of the storms. If that plays out we could see a locally enhanced tornado threat as the storms progress eastward. 

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20 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

I have never seen a 45% Hatched Hail Risk for Louisiana and Mississippi.

 

Also, yikes for back-to-back Moderate Risks, and it's only March.

We have been having bigger tornado events in this winter ever since November 29th. The idea of pattern-persistence would say that Spring should have some more tornadoes than usual. I did a post on another forum where I counted the tornadoes of winter: 295 tornadoes in 96 days, from Nov. 29 to Mar. 4. The average is 3.0 tornadoes per day, which I think is about triple the average. (I looked at confirmed tornadoes as listed by Wikipedia, as that's a fairly easy way to see the bulk of the information. Funny enough, there's not one SPC web page that has a complete list of all confirmed tornadoes. The SPC has lots of relevant data, including severe weather plots by month.)

Edited by Chinook
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19 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

I have never seen a 45% Hatched Hail Risk for Louisiana and Mississippi.

 

Also, yikes for back-to-back Moderate Risks, and it's only March.

I don’t recall one either here before. Tornado watch just issued. Awaiting the details on it.

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