Moderators Central Illinois Posted March 16, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 16, 2023 1 hour ago, Iceresistance said: Uh oh Mesoscale Discussion 0290 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 Areas affected...portions of southwest into central OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 161527Z - 161730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase from southwest into central OK over the next 1-2 hours. Hail will be the main hazard with initial thunderstorms into early afternoon. A watch may be needed in the next hour or so. DISCUSSION...Areas of deeper convective cells are developing within broader area of showers across western OK late this morning ahead of a fast, southeastward-advancing surface cold front. An elevated mixed-layer noted in 12z regional RAOBs may result in initial thunderstorm activity remaining elevated. Also, as the cold front quickly progresses southeast, initial storms late this morning into midday may quickly become undercut by the front. Forecast RAP/NAM soundings indicate some erosion of steeper midlevel lapse rates is occurring as early showers move across central OK. However, midlevel lapse rates, coupled with favorable shear profiles and modest instability, should support a few organized cells/clusters capable of producing hail. There is some uncertainty in intensity of initial storms in a narrow corridor (generally along the I-44/I-40 corridor) in central OK the next few hours. However, a greater severe threat, including potential for a few tornadoes, is expected just south and east across south-central/southeast OK and north TX, where more favorable surface-based convection is expected by mid-afternoon. While the tornado threat may be lower across the narrow corridor of mainly large hail potential across central OK, a watch may be needed in the next hour or so. That area is starting to get pretty messy looking on radar for anything significant I’m guessing large hail will be the main threat…with your significant stuff right on the Oklahoma/Texas line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 16, 2023 Author Share Posted March 16, 2023 19 minutes ago, Central Illinois said: That area is starting to get pretty messy looking on radar for anything significant I’m guessing large hail will be the main threat…with your significant stuff right on the Oklahoma/Texas line I know, it's also linear mode too. But, all it takes is one to jump out in front for that to change, the true instability has not even arrived yet. DP is near 60 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 16, 2023 Author Share Posted March 16, 2023 I don't like this sounding, STP of a 2.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 16, 2023 Author Share Posted March 16, 2023 (edited) Well, that escalated quickly. EDIT: BASEBALL SIZED HAIL for this storm! Edited March 16, 2023 by Iceresistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 Severe cell with baseball size hail possible. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Norman OK 1255 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 OKC065-141-TXC487-161815- /O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-230316T1815Z/ Jackson OK-Tillman OK-Wilbarger TX- 1255 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL JACKSON...NORTHWESTERN TILLMAN AND NORTHWESTERN WILBARGER COUNTIES... At 1254 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles southeast of Elmer, moving east at 40 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR FREDERICK. HAZARD...Baseball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured. Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs, siding, and vehicles. Locations impacted include... Frederick, Tipton, Manitou and Hess. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is a dangerous storm. Prepare immediately for large destructive hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from windows. && LAT...LON 3432 9937 3446 9937 3455 9893 3448 9890 3431 9892 TIME...MOT...LOC 1754Z 261DEG 36KT 3441 9928 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 Tornado watch coming soon. Quote Mesoscale Discussion 0291 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 Areas affected...portions of the Red River Valley in south-central OK and north TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 161752Z - 161845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes is increasing. A WW will likely be issued in the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...As a mid-level wave overspreads the region, ongoing convection initiation (currently located along the I-44 corridor in southwestern/central OK) is expected to continue southwestward into portions of north TX. This will occur along a surging cold front and, possibly, ahead of the cold front near a triple point along an eastward surging dryline. All severe hazards will be possible with these storms, including a few tornadoes (perhaps one or two strong), large hail, and damaging wind gusts. A WW will likely be needed in the next 1-2 hours. For storms initiating along the cold front, the nature of associated hazards will depend on a delicate balance between expected storm motion and cold front motion. Given a southward-surging cold front, sustained surface-based supercells appear unlikely. However, forecast soundings suggest early/mature supercell bearings around 240/260 degrees, respectively. The cold front also turns sharply toward the northeast through western OK (roughly from LTS/OJA/WDG). These factors may support more sustained surface-based inflow with any supercells forming along that portion of the cold front, suggesting a greater threat for tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. Regardless of the surface-based nature of the inflow, any supercell forming near the front will pose a threat for large hail given substantial low-level moisture, steep mid-level lapse rates, and large bulk shear. A conditional threat for a few tornadoes, perhaps one or two strong, and large, damaging hail could materialize if any pre-frontal discrete supercells form. The greatest chance for this to occur should reside along the Red River Valley, downstream of an anticipated triple point around 19-20z near CDS. Some CAM guidance suggests successful convection initiation in this area. Any storms forming here would move eastward into an environment supportive of strong tornadoes and very large hail. Bubbling Cu are currently noted in northwest TX ahead of the cold front. Should successful convection initiation occur here, a local corridor of greater severe-weather potential may materialize this afternoon along the Red River Valley. ..Flournoy/Kerr.. 03/16/2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 SPC mentioning a strong tornado or two is possible, and that nasty supercell could be a potential candidate to produce if it can stay ahead of the front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Tornado watch coming soon. Another Red River Valley tornado threat, it's been the OK/TX border for the target area for most of the severe events down here this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 Frederick OK about to get hammered. Quote BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Norman OK 109 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southwestern Comanche County in southwestern Oklahoma... Central Tillman County in southwestern Oklahoma... * Until 200 PM CDT. * At 107 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles west of Frederick, moving east at 40 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR FREDERICK. HAZARD...Baseball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured. Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs, siding, and vehicles. * Locations impacted include... Frederick, Tipton, Chattanooga, Manitou and Hollister. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is a dangerous storm. Prepare immediately for large destructive hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should move to shelter inside a strong building, and stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3432 9917 3449 9918 3455 9866 3432 9866 TIME...MOT...LOC 1807Z 259DEG 34KT 3441 9912 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 Confirmed golf ball hail in Frederick. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Norman OK 122 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 OKC031-141-161900- /O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-230316T1900Z/ Comanche OK-Tillman OK- 122 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN COMANCHE AND CENTRAL TILLMAN COUNTIES... At 122 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 4 miles northeast of Frederick, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...Two inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Emergency management reported golf ball size hail in Frederick IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. Locations impacted include... Frederick, Chattanooga, Manitou and Hollister. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is a dangerous storm. Prepare immediately for large destructive hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from windows. && LAT...LON 3432 9901 3451 9902 3455 9866 3432 9866 TIME...MOT...LOC 1822Z 259DEG 34KT 3444 9895 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 16, 2023 Author Share Posted March 16, 2023 Tornado watch for Southern Oklahoma and Northern Texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 3 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Tornado watch for Southern Oklahoma and Northern Texas Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 68 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of southern Oklahoma north central Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue to increase and intensify across the Tornado Watch area through late afternoon. A couple of supercells are possible early along the Red River vicinity, and southward into portions of north central Texas, before storms consolidate into a line or cluster while developing east-southeastward into early evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles west of Mcalester OK to 15 miles east southeast of Stephenville TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Kerr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 16, 2023 Author Share Posted March 16, 2023 Duncan is about to get clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 Nasty cell in N TX with possible tennis ball sized hail. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 227 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 TXC363-429-503-161945- /O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-230316T1945Z/ Young TX-Stephens TX-Palo Pinto TX- 227 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN YOUNG...NORTHEASTERN STEPHENS AND NORTHWESTERN PALO PINTO COUNTIES... At 227 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Possum Kingdom State Park, or 17 miles south of Graham, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tennis ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. Locations impacted include... Graford, Palo Pinto, Possum Kingdom Lake, Caddo and Possum Kingdom State Park. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for north central Texas. Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3271 9868 3284 9870 3300 9858 3301 9838 3300 9818 3279 9818 TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 254DEG 36KT 3284 9858 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 16, 2023 Author Share Posted March 16, 2023 There is a couplet over Duncan, OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 SPC removed the 10% tornado area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 16, 2023 Author Share Posted March 16, 2023 Tornado Warning just east of Duncan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 16, 2023 Author Share Posted March 16, 2023 HAM Radio reports a tornado near Velma, OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 That tornado warning was cancelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 Nasty looking cell headed toward Dallas/Fort Worth. Quote BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 312 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southern Wise County in north central Texas... Southeastern Jack County in north central Texas... Parker County in north central Texas... Western Tarrant County in north central Texas... * Until 400 PM CDT. * At 312 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Lake Mineral Wells, or near Mineral Wells, moving east at 45 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Fort Worth, Weatherford, Benbrook, Mineral Wells, White Settlement, Azle, River Oaks, Sansom Park, Lake Worth, Eagle Mountain, Briar, Pecan Acres, Willow Park, Reno, Aledo, Springtown, Westworth Village, Hudson Oaks, Pelican Bay and Rhome. This includes the following highways... Interstate 20 between mile markers 401 and 431. Interstate 30 between mile markers 1 and 10. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for north central Texas. For your protection get inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3265 9740 3274 9806 3300 9805 3301 9807 3306 9807 3311 9739 TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 268DEG 39KT 3284 9798 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 16, 2023 Author Share Posted March 16, 2023 3 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: That tornado warning was cancelled. Yep, undercut by the Cold Front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 16, 2023 Author Share Posted March 16, 2023 The Supercell over Fort Worth is looking really mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 Warned for tennis balls now, yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 6 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said: Warned for tennis balls now, yikes And tagged "tornado possible". Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 TXC367-439-162100- /O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0057.000000T0000Z-230316T2100Z/ Parker TX-Tarrant TX- 339 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN PARKER AND WESTERN TARRANT COUNTIES... At 339 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Willow Park, or 7 miles east of Weatherford, moving east at 45 mph. HAZARD...Tennis ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. Locations impacted include... Fort Worth, Weatherford, Benbrook, White Settlement, Azle, River Oaks, Sansom Park, Lake Worth, Eagle Mountain, Briar, Pecan Acres, Willow Park, Reno, Aledo, Westworth Village, Hudson Oaks, Pelican Bay, Haslet, Annetta and Lake Weatherford. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for north central Texas. This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3299 9740 3265 9740 3271 9778 3290 9777 3299 9742 TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 274DEG 39KT 3278 9764 TORNADO...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 16, 2023 Author Share Posted March 16, 2023 3 inch hail reported near Fort Worth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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