March 12-15, 2023 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[Poco]

If you look at Nam and even gfs to an extent it is creating two surface reflections due to the way it is handling the energy in the flow at 500mb 

you can see the issue under high resolution, not to be too confused with convective feedback this is more of an issue with the consolidation of energy within a long wave.   
 

this issue won’t resolve until almost right up until game time.  The backwards J type of miller B storms always cone with a couple surprises.  
 

someone poconos on north I can see getting buried. 

[Brodozer1]

Ok so winter has moved from jan to march ok

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, Poco said:

If you look at Nam and even gfs to an extent it is creating two surface reflections due to the way it is handling the energy in the flow at 500mb 

you can see the issue under high resolution, not to be too confused with convective feedback this is more of an issue with the consolidation of energy within a long wave.   
 

this issue won’t resolve until almost right up until game time.  The backwards J type of miller B storms always cone with a couple surprises.  
 

someone poconos on north I can see getting buried. 

 

 

Yea that little piece of energy is going to throw the models in a tizzy but that is some deepening folks like to see. We have backed the storm up from capturing near boston to NYC. If at 500mb can start reaching around Delmarva this may be quite the storm.

Edited March 10, 2023 by so_whats_happening

[so_whats_happening]

Woof from the CMC areas just NW of NY through western CT and Western Mass get rocked. Here is the progression of the 700mb fronto you can see the two distinct bands. The coastal badn most likely may have issues with BL but with some elevation things could change quick.

 

It also looks like models are trying to do a quicker capture of the system. Putting areas from Eastern PA and Poconos in play initially. Elevation should do better with some good lift across the region. Should be interesting to see as the afternoon goes on and the Euro comes out.

[NEPAsnow]

6z euro anyone?

 

[Brodozer1]

i just don't see a big snowstorm temps still locked in the 40s in my area 

[so_whats_happening]

9 minutes ago, Brodozer1 said:

i just don't see a big snowstorm temps still locked in the 40s in my area 

One thing consistent is the area of SE NY to about Albany and Western Mass need to pay attention they should be able to hold cold enough. Depending on just how much wiggling there is left is not certain would at least wait until 00z to get at least two runs of consistency. If we can get that I would also expand a bit of coverage for snow closer to the coast as the bombing low should do enough. Sub 985 should do it fine sub 980 and we have quite the storm. Areas still in eastern Mass/ RI/ and much of CT should still keep an eye as it could go from a rain to snow situation. Areas of NE PA and northern NJ should also pay attention as small changes will start to add up as they are on the doorstep to some snow.

Most are looking at no more than 10:1 probably the closer to the rain line 8:1 areas that transition could pick up a couple inches still maybe even enough to warrant warnings depending on just how quick things cool off.

This does not look like a 16" plus widespread more along the lines of 5-10" and elevation could top a 12-14" may have some random lollipops higher where best lift sets up and it is all snow, 2-5" in transition areas and on the western side type of deal.

[TheRex]

At hour 102 the Euro is showing quite the low but 2M temps are not that cold.

Quote

 

 

[TLChip]

So when we’re talking about a coastal low like this setup, with there not being any true cold air (MJ spoke on this earlier.) We don’t have much CAA going on is my assumption, more so trying to rely on ‘lift’ cooling the columns in heavy QPF areas? 
 

edit: just looking  at the surface temps Rex posted this is warm looking and the moisture transport off the ocean would be warm/high dew points. I see some rain showers in Canada 🫠.

So even with a decent track and some blocking still missing that fresh cold air supply really weakens these setups for let’s say south of NY/PA boarder.

Edited March 10, 2023 by TLChip

[so_whats_happening]

19 minutes ago, TLChip said:

So when we’re talking about a coastal low like this setup, with there not being any true cold air (MJ spoke on this earlier.) We don’t have much CAA going on is my assumption, more so trying to rely on ‘lift’ cooling the columns in heavy QPF areas? 
 

edit: just looking  at the surface temps Rex posted this is very warm looking and the moisture transport off the ocean would be warm/high dew points. 

Correct the air is going to just be so saturated, like a sponge, for this time of year. Model outputs for QPF have been 1.5-3" across SNE and SE NY. You can see the airmass on the SPC meso page is rather meh behind this system cool but not cold (-4 to-8 C). What this lead system is doing is throwing a make shift WAA if you will cause it is not pulling on cold air from Canada rather the upper Midwest allowing the upper levels to warm and moisten up a bit cutting down on evap cooling to help aid before the storm really kicks in. This will modify in the March daytime so we need strong lifting to compensate for any cold missing. Areas that typically stay cold should do well but with an easterly/south easterly jet setting up you flood the lower levels up to about 3000-4000 AGL. So technically 850mbs may just be ok but unless you have elevation to compensate for melting in that layer, this will cause rain because of the steady warm push until that gets choked off and or the column can cool enough.

Edited March 10, 2023 by so_whats_happening

[Chris2333]

I’ve been lurking all winter and didn’t want to have to pull this card out. We have two sites and this winter has been terrible, so why doesn’t someone kiss and make up so we all get snow. 

Asking for a friend, and that friend is me.

All joking aside pretty sure my backyard is going to be on the literal line of the rain/snow one on this one. 

[so_whats_happening]

Euro picking up what the CMC is throwing down. There is still room for this to occur quicker but we will see about that. Wouldn't be surprised if by 00z things are about the same watches come out.

This had some ratios that would border 12:1 across SE NY and ALbany west Mass area. Would push that area solifly to over a foot. Maybe we do see s olid chunk of the area get 16"?

Edited March 10, 2023 by so_whats_happening

[Brodozer1]

also temps in my area have been 50 last 2 days ground is warming up 

[telejunkie]

Interesting....Burlington NWS basically saying....

Quote

By early Monday morning, there
could be some snow showers moving through the region, especially
in northern New York where there could be a dusting to a
quarter inch of snow accumulating and winds out of the southeast
picking up. There`s still some vast differences in model
guidance, particularly in location of surface low pressures and
how quickly energy transfer processes take place as a coastal
low develops. Run to run, deterministic models are lacking in
consistency in these areas as well, with a large margin of
error. However, there is good confidence that precipitation will
occur sometime Monday-Tuesday. Highest chance of precip will be
in the St. Lawrence Valley and terrain locations Monday
afternoon/night, with PoPs 80-90% into Tuesday night.

 

Edited March 10, 2023 by telejunkie

[Poco]

Gmao 12z 

 

[TheRex]

59 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

Interesting....Burlington NWS basically saying....

 

I think they got burned a couple times this winter and decided not to be bullish this late in winter without having much cold air involved.  Now this will probably be our biggest storm of the year and they'll have to play catch up.  Now I'm wishcasting.

[Poco]

[Penn State]

3 minutes ago, Poco said:

Gmao 12z 

 

Man.. that’s close to making me happy in SCPA. Will be happy for anyone that’s cashed in on this one. Would be nice for E/SE PA. 

[TLChip]

1 minute ago, Penn State said:

Man.. that’s close to making me happy in SCPA. Will be happy for anyone that’s cashed in on this one. Would be nice for E/SE PA. 

As long as it doesn’t pull this…

[Penn State]

1 minute ago, TLChip said:

As long as it doesn’t pull this…

It’s been that kind of season.. but this looks like a winner for NEPA up through interior NE. 

[Poco]

Would like to see the shorter range models and how they handle the main pieces and the Atlantic ridge before I’m really confident in location.    But yea it does feel like this is leaning towards a crush job for someone somewhere, especially to a localized section where a cap pivot stall may take place 

[telejunkie]

56 minutes ago, TheRex said:

I think they got burned a couple times this winter and decided not to be bullish this late in winter without having much cold air involved.  Now this will probably be our biggest storm of the year and they'll have to play catch up.  Now I'm wishcasting.

MJ earlier posted the cyclone track for the overnight UKie...

And that "track" still produced this:

 

Feeling pretty confident we're inline for a high-impact event....of course there is still potential things fall apart, but think putting "snow showers" out there doesn't do folks any favors either.

Edited March 10, 2023 by telejunkie

[telejunkie]

@TheRex Burlington did remove snow showers or mention of rain in their forecast here in their afternoon update. Now just "Snow"

Looks like backcountry skiing may finally be coming in here in Southern VT....see if it lasts more than a few days....🙄

[MaineJay]

51 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

MJ earlier posted the cyclone track for the overnight UKie...

And that "track" still produced this:

 

Feeling pretty confident we're inline for a high-impact event....of course there is still potential things fall apart, but think putting "snow showers" out there doesn't do folks any favors either.

It's funny how all these storms seem to have an inverted trof focus. All the best storms over here this winter have been like 24 hour affairs.  I hate relying on what I remember, because memory can be so selective.

  I wonder if that ukie run had a bit of a double barrel low structure, but the cyclone tracking only picked up on the dominant low.

 Anywho, gotta be honest, was hoping to see more 970s solutions today.  Feeling like the weak solutions might have some real localized lollipops, whereas those stuck in the lighter stuff might get screwed. 

  Gotta take time of day into account too probably, again, winners and losers.  

 Who gets into the best overlap in the winter weather ingredient ven diagram. 

 Hunter Mt?

[Poco]