March 12-15, 2023 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[TLChip]

I keep hoping the next time I check the GFS its got something good. ehhhh

GFS

Euro

Edited March 10, 2023 by TLChip

[Penn State]

3 minutes ago, TLChip said:

I keep hoping the next time I check the GFS its got something good. ehhhh

GFS

Euro

The GFS has been underwhelming.. but as for the Euro.. this is about as sexy a look I’ve gotten this winter in SCPA for a storm within 90 hours. 

[MaineJay]

Ukie has shifted east with it's track.

JMA has the deepest low.

ECMWF probably remains the most impactful.

GFS brings it up tucked, but the weakness of the storm won't overcome warm or marginal boundary layer issues.

CMC looks like a GFS/ECMWF blend, and appears to spin itself out of the Mass coast.

[MaineJay]

12 hours ago, MaineJay said:

There's a different between possible, and probable.  There a lot of factors that would have to align to maximize the snow.  10:1 might be ambitious, perhaps during high intensity at night.

  There would also be a fair amount of compaction.  

  Looking at the EPS extreme forecast index, it does indicate the potential for a high ceiling. The black contours represent EPS members that have highly anomalous snowfall.  The colored shading speaks more to the percentage of members that agree.

  So in summary, the black lines are kinda speaking to the amount of "boom" possible, and the shading is the chance of it happening.

EFI still favoring Albany to the Catskills, with some increased chances into NE PA.

The protracted nature means the threat is actually spread over 3 days, and the timing probably effects the distribution on these charts.

Day prior.

Day after

[MaineJay]

We are really going to want to see the strength increasing in the models. 12z today should have some decent sampling.   15mb in 24 hours might not cut it this time of year, especially in areas with a marginal airmass.  

  Would like to see some consensus for a sub 980 to gain confidence.

[TheComet]

What does the EPS show?

[MaineJay]

2 minutes ago, TheComet said:

What does the EPS show?

Everything from 0"-20" for your location (assuming you are the Long Pond in Monroe, not Berks county).  And this is snow depth, so the actual snowfall could technically be greater, but it's too early to start getting hung up on numbers.

Link so you can bookmark it.

https://weather.us/forecast/5198852-long-pond/ensemble/euro/snow

 

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, Penn State said:

The GFS has been underwhelming.. but as for the Euro.. this is about as sexy a look I’ve gotten this winter in SCPA for a storm within 90 hours. 

If we get the energy cooking this storm up quick maybe. I would love to see low 990s before it exits delmarva. Better digging of energy and more nuetral look to the trough may help us even with marginal temps. Just need to get some solid lift.

 

[JDClapper]

25 minutes ago, TheComet said:

What does the EPS show?

Sorry bro, Joe on WNEP says latest indications are this misses us.

 

We tried. Lol

[CryptoWeather]

I'm not really understanding the dynamics here. It seems even with a benchmark track and a strong high pressure to the west. This thing is still bringing in warm at the surface. I get it if the low tracks too far west but I find it strange that even if the low goes east, there will still be rain. Hopefully it changes. 

Edited March 10, 2023 by CryptoWeather

[MaineJay]

26 minutes ago, CryptoWeather said:

I'm not really understanding the dynamics here. It seems even with a benchmark track and a strong high pressure to the west. This thing is still bringing in warm at the surface. I get it if the low tracks too far west but I find it strange that even if the low goes east, there will still be rain. Hopefully it changes. 

It has to do with how the antecedent airmass is situated.  Being mid March, there are some warmth/sun angle headwinds. But perhaps the biggest issue, is the "cold" in SE Canada and by extension New England, is being heavily influenced by the ocean.  Any cold conveyor becomes a kinda cool conveyer, it just doesn't have the same oomph.

  It's really a maritime airmass in place.  So while it might be cold enough, it's lacks what arctic, continental air can do.  It will also have higher dew points within, so that erodes wetbulb potential.

  This puts us at the mercy of dynamic cooling based on lift.  We need the stronger storm to lift the airmass to cool it.  

[Rush]

10 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

It has to do with how the antecedent airmass is situated.  Being mid March, there are some warmth/sun angle headwinds. 

The final phrase of a disappointing winter.  

"If we only had this storm in January!"

 

 

 

 

[NEPAsnow]

1 hour ago, JDClapper said:

Sorry bro, Joe on WNEP says latest indications are this misses us.

 

We tried. Lol

Yeah and he's a Genius

[so_whats_happening]

51 minutes ago, Rush said:

The final phrase of a disappointing winter.  

"If we only had this storm in January!"

 

 

 

 

Lol we will probably be saying that in april and may as well. Rough season for sure and lack of precip in the rain department is not a good thing for this area especially when this is supposed to be our wettest time of the year. Cant rely on thunderstorms in the summer to help.

[bigben89]

2 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

If we get the energy cooking this storm up quick maybe. I would love to see low 990s before it exits delmarva. Better digging of energy and more nuetral look to the trough may help us even with marginal temps. Just need to get some solid lift.

 

You would think 90-hours away would be a lock these days with the technology.

[CryptoWeather]

1 hour ago, MaineJay said:

It has to do with how the antecedent airmass is situated.  Being mid March, there are some warmth/sun angle headwinds. But perhaps the biggest issue, is the "cold" in SE Canada and by extension New England, is being heavily influenced by the ocean.  Any cold conveyor becomes a kinda cool conveyer, it just doesn't have the same oomph.

  It's really a maritime airmass in place.  So while it might be cold enough, it's lacks what arctic, continental air can do.  It will also have higher dew points within, so that erodes wetbulb potential.

  This puts us at the mercy of dynamic cooling based on lift.  We need the stronger storm to lift the airmass to cool it.  

Thanks for sharing that. Very interesting stuff. 

[MaineJay]

27 minutes ago, Rush said:

The final phrase of a disappointing winter.  

"If we only had this storm in January!"

 

 

 

 

A phrase I often utter is, "there's always a trade-off".  The jet stream  *generally* slows this time of year, so there are advantages this storm has that January storms don't, moisture could be considered another.  

   Even up here, the stronger storm is probably necessary for the coast and likely to the base of the foothills.

 

[so_whats_happening]

46 minutes ago, bigben89 said:

You would think 90-hours away would be a lock these days with the technology.

We learned this back in school, "More technology doesn't always mean more accurate." It really is true though, mets working at their respective offices around the globe are trying to map the ever changing atmosphere and how it will evolve through time, that's tough you probably have a better chance of getting a bullseye than a model showing consistency almost a week out heck probably even 5 days out. Sandy was a fluke in modeling for sure, still to this day many talk about just how crazy it was models in general caught it that far out. We still for the most part have not pushed past the 3 day forecasting speed bump, 5 days can be reasonable sometimes hence why it is a big deal when SPC puts out severe weather probs more than 3 days.

Unfortunately when we also look at model runs via tropical tidbits or pivotal (wherever your flavor of site may be) we still only see one possible run is often the averaged out run but the multitude of other runs aren't seen as often and when we do tend to see them posted they usually are snow map potentials. So many small variables could change it is crazy and this just exponentially grows out with time. This is why it is typically best to watch ensembles further out in time they aren't as pretty or as concise/ wild runs but they help present the potential and have, usually, less bouncing around.

The biggest issue by far is sampling of data. We can only sample so much data where we can access, everything else is based via satellite and planes in those fairly barren places and some of players and key features come from there. Wish we honestly could figure out better data sampling in more northern reaches but it is what it is. Thats why it is always great to see when they do flights ahead of big storms to put more nail in the coffin.

With this storm the idea for the most part is there. Minor changes in how quick the northern piece dies and when the southern energy takes over. How quickly this can get captured where exactly that takes place can mean a shift in precip placement and storm development by 50 or so miles. At this time we wont see major changes in allowing say DC on NE to have a major snow event but it could start nosing areas around philly if we capture quicker but we have to wait and see. Shouldn't be too much longer before the models get a much cleaner picture. Precip will start to fill in more properly via the maps and should know once we see this current system really develop. Thats why just take the models for a ride enjoy the fun the can sometimes put out, here is a good example something even 72 hours out can change. Check out the vort over southern Hudson Bay see how its placement even 78 hours ago changed, that placement changed the whole idea of the storm it allowed for the energy to be more stretched out over the plains it nudged the system north a bit as well as allowed LP to be over Ohio instead of the IN/IL border and that is just one variable.

Sorry for the long post but figured in between models it was ok to chat a bit.

Edited March 10, 2023 by so_whats_happening
wanted to add the part about ensembles

[so_whats_happening]

31 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

We learned this back in school, "More technology doesn't always mean more accurate." It really is true though, mets working at their respective offices around the globe are trying to map the ever changing atmosphere and how it will evolve through time, that's tough you probably have a better chance of getting a bullseye than a model showing consistency almost a week out heck probably even 5 days out. Sandy was a fluke in modeling for sure, still to this day many talk about just how crazy it was models in general caught it that far out. We still for the most part have not pushed past the 3 day forecasting speed bump, 5 days can be reasonable sometimes hence why it is a big deal when SPC puts out severe weather probs more than 3 days.

Unfortunately when we also look at model runs via tropical tidbits or pivotal (wherever your flavor of site may be) we still only see one possible run is often the averaged out run but the multitude of other runs aren't seen as often and when we do tend to see them posted they usually are snow map potentials. So many small variables could change it is crazy and this just exponentially grows out with time. This is why it is typically best to watch ensembles further out in time they aren't as pretty or as concise/ wild runs but they help present the potential and have, usually, less bouncing around.

The biggest issue by far is sampling of data. We can only sample so much data where we can access, everything else is based via satellite and planes in those fairly barren places and some of players and key features come from there. Wish we honestly could figure out better data sampling in more northern reaches but it is what it is. Thats why it is always great to see when they do flights ahead of big storms to put more nail in the coffin.

With this storm the idea for the most part is there. Minor changes in how quick the northern piece dies and when the southern energy takes over. How quickly this can get captured where exactly that takes place can mean a shift in precip placement and storm development by 50 or so miles. At this time we wont see major changes in allowing say DC on NE to have a major snow event but it could start nosing areas around philly if we capture quicker but we have to wait and see. Shouldn't be too much longer before the models get a much cleaner picture. Precip will start to fill in more properly via the maps and should know once we see this current system really develop. Thats why just take the models for a ride enjoy the fun the can sometimes put out, here is a good example something even 72 hours out can change. Check out the vort over southern Hudson Bay see how its placement even 78 hours ago changed, that placement changed the whole idea of the storm it allowed for the energy to be more stretched out over the plains it nudged the system north a bit as well as allowed LP to be over Ohio instead of the IN/IL border and that is just one variable.

Sorry for the long post but figured in between models it was ok to chat a bit.

Hate to quote again off this but look at just 54 hours out on the GFS reasonable enough time from the system. Look at what has changed in 36 hours with the system. Again check the southern tip of Hudson bay, the shortwave over MI is know being enhanced around IL. This is just the GFS too adding the Euro into the mix same time period.

Check out the differences in the lead wave GFS has it in IL while Euro is in MI. Ridging is decent out ahead of the system so Euro looks more neutral than GFS which looks more positive. As mentioned before the handling of the vort near the southern tip of the Hudson.

I will say the 6z Euro was very interesting at the end.

Edited March 10, 2023 by so_whats_happening

[Poco]

06z nav 

a track inside that would be crazy 

[Poco]

3 minutes ago, Poco said:

06z nav 

a track inside that would be crazy 

 

[Poco]

Jma

 

[so_whats_happening]

3 minutes ago, Poco said:

06z nav 

a track inside that would be crazy 

Just need ridging a bit better out in front and slowing down of the southern energy, If we can get that it may be some fun. Toeing a fine line though with BL so should be interesting to watch over the next 36 hours.

[TLChip]

Hopefully some of these models come closer to an agreement after this next storm has passed through. Still expecting the shaft down here, maybe white rain.
 

Thanks @so_whats_happening. @MaineJay always great information coming from y’all. 

[Poco]

Gfs trend 

last 8 h5 delta, heights rising out front, lowering behind and below, headed in the right direction.