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March 12-15, 2023 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm


Penn State

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Can't get past how luke warm EPS is, despite run after op run. 

Central PA, maybe an inch or two and its been like this for days.. NEPA, theres a few bangers in there, but majority are unimpressed.

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37 minutes ago, Person said:

If I believed that I am indeed going to get 23.2" I might be considered a   clown.  Hope is poison.

Dang kids and their Crayola crayons.

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17 hours ago, Penn State said:

Track is decent.. where is the precip??? There’s no juice.
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Welll this 2023 so that explains why nothing coming to the left.  No this not a political statement. Just the way it it has been weather wise. Normal setup there would be a lot of peripitation. This year nothing. 

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I like the look of 18z RGEM at hr84...main trough looks to cleanly phase in with all the energy moving through the Smokies/Blue Ridge area.

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NAM at hr84 has that all the way towards DelMarVa and NJ area...a lot more disconnect between those two pieces

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Feel like I'd be much happier with the results of the RGEM....

Edited by telejunkie
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52 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

My guess is that there were some little japanese snowmen whispering in his ear....

Ha, actually been pretty quiet over there.   I think there’s finally sone Constructive tropical influence from the Mjo phase 7 to 1 propagation.   A few waves worth of tempo  will get a chance into third week of month 

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2 hours ago, dhtrip2 said:

Is this even possible??!!! 

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There's a different between possible, and probable.  There a lot of factors that would have to align to maximize the snow.  10:1 might be ambitious, perhaps during high intensity at night.

  There would also be a fair amount of compaction.  

  Looking at the EPS extreme forecast index, it does indicate the potential for a high ceiling. The black contours represent EPS members that have highly anomalous snowfall.  The colored shading speaks more to the percentage of members that agree.

  So in summary, the black lines are kinda speaking to the amount of "boom" possible, and the shading is the chance of it happening.

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1 hour ago, MaineJay said:

There's a different between possible, and probable.  There a lot of factors that would have to align to maximize the snow.  10:1 might be ambitious, perhaps during high intensity at night.

  There would also be a fair amount of compaction.  

  Looking at the EPS extreme forecast index, it does indicate the potential for a high ceiling. The black contours represent EPS members that have highly anomalous snowfall.  The colored shading speaks more to the percentage of members that agree.

  So in summary, the black lines are kinda speaking to the amount of "boom" possible, and the shading is the chance of it happening.

ens_2023030912_ne_24h_sfi_SFC_132.thumb.png.86971f95b47ccbfba8f2c1ec01ac2709.png

Nice.  So 4-5 days out, where does it verify?  Maine, MidAlt or a no show?  

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Lots of energy pushing onshore.  The pieces to our storm are in there, probably not well sampled, if at all.  The more subtle southern energy seems more tricky, so it'll be interesting what it looks like when it finally gets over land.

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I know the primary focus will be on the interior parts of SNE / NE.. but this is still a nice light, long duration event for parts of PA, MD, VA, etc. I hate to miss out on the big stuff, but 3–4” is a top ranking snowfall this winter lol 

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