TLChip Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Let's see where this goes, hopefully not those few in the lakes 😁 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 8, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 8, 2023 16 minutes ago, TLChip said: Let's see where this goes, hopefully not those few in the lakes 😁 Not worried about those ones in the lakes. They are associated with the northern stream feature that phases in, and are fading as the coastal deepens. It's kind of a Miller A/B hybrid I feel like. It also might be the case that if that lakes low is stronger, it might mean an overall stronger system. Here's the ECMWF for illustration. You can see the northern feature wane as is merges with the coastal. I'm also extremely hesitant to buy the loop at this range, strength too, those two aspects are really hard to hold for another 100 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 (edited) A lot to be ironed out. Is the previous pattern scoured out? Seems that there is some kind of influence. One would think this thing gets kicked off Delmarva and bombs out. But gfs isn’t biting. Sorry in advance. Downing a bottle of vino and I’m sick of winter. Go big or go home! Edited March 8, 2023 by Rickrd 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 8, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 8, 2023 10 hours ago, Brodozer1 said: temps just don't support snow it is what it is but maybe one of these storms can surprise. I believe I haven't seen rain since January 26, and the 6" of show that fell that day largely survived. Have to go back to January 13 for my last "pure rain" event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 9, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 9, 2023 BOX Quote Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday...high amplitude pattern with high latitude blocking supporting potential East Coast cyclone. 12z deterministic (including UKMET) and ensembles offering some very strong/deep solutions near/over SNE, but also with large differences in location and intensity. Hence, keeping this portion of the forecast probabilistic vs deterministic, especially at this time range. Typical model struggles include amplitude of lead and trailing short wave energy, and the separation and interaction of these features. Lots of run to run variability, so just need to be patient and wait for guidance to convergence. It is worth mentioning, if any of these high amplitude solutions come to fruition, a high impact event is possible especially if heavy wet snow materializes. Something we need to watch over the next few days into the weekend. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 3 hours ago, MaineJay said: I believe I haven't seen rain since January 26, and the 6" of show that fell that day largely survived. Have to go back to January 13 for my last "pure rain" event. Brag much? 😚 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 9, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Brag much? 😚 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandO100 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 3 hours ago, MaineJay said: I believe I haven't seen rain since January 26, and the 6" of show that fell that day largely survived. Have to go back to January 13 for my last "pure rain" event. The 2022-23 snow king has spoken! Ha ha, you’re killing us with that post MJ! Hasn’t had pure rain in almost 2 months….first world problems. The rest of us will see if we can scrounge for some snow crumbs! seriously though, good on you! Brag on! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Ughhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 35 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Brag much? 😚 Lets see what he has to shovel out of after this loopty loop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 This one aLso fizzling away ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 New England special ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted March 9, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, PA road DAWG said: This one aLso fizzling away ? Track is decent.. where is the precip??? There’s no juice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted March 9, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted March 9, 2023 ECMWF.. Right along the coast, but quite warm this run with more precipitation of the liquid variety for most. Would like to assume something in between this and the GFS.. but really, that doesn’t make me happy. I want a beast.. but not at the expense of snow.. and I don’t want it to be weak sauce either, even with snow, because I want more than an inch. So.. I what I want is a storm powerful enough to generate its own cooling. So, let’s work on that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted March 9, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted March 9, 2023 Of course.. it wraps up to me NE and gives central and SE New York State 2ft. The Mid-Atlantic can’t win! Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 9, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 9, 2023 6 hours ago, CandO100 said: The 2022-23 snow king has spoken! Ha ha, you’re killing us with that post MJ! Hasn’t had pure rain in almost 2 months….first world problems. The rest of us will see if we can scrounge for some snow crumbs! seriously though, good on you! Brag on! I'm really just touting the benefits of living at 44°N. 😊 Able to salvage some snow amidst the 3rd warmest winter in 75 years. GFS trend. Looks like the energies week be sampled 12z tomorrow. Still have to rearrange the deck chairs on the Titanic a bit before we know how she's going to go down. Would be nice to have a sharper, if not deeper southern trof for the spunky northern vort to drop into. Again, note the changes near James Bay, that's the "finger" of Hudson Bay that sticks down if anyone was wondering. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 9, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 9, 2023 ECMWF wants to do a double loop It's a kinda messy trof progression. The loops suggest different vort maxes rotating inside the longwave trof. Really tough to nail down any specifics. These loops happen a lot less frequently than modeled. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 awful quite in here when this possibility shows up? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 We’re just waiting, to see if this really happens ☃️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted March 9, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 9, 2023 photo of me looking at 12z CMC....going all March 2018 on us... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodozer1 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 17 hours ago, MaineJay said: I believe I haven't seen rain since January 26, and the 6" of show that fell that day largely survived. Have to go back to January 13 for my last "pure rain" event. wish i lived in Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 (edited) THE IDES OF MARCH! Edited March 9, 2023 by Poco 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 8 minutes ago, Poco said: THE IDES OF MARCH! Uh oh, a @Poco sighting! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Where do I sign up? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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