Admin Sentinel Posted March 13, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 13, 2023 10 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Any thoughts on being on the NW side of this ULL? Doesn't that area typically overproduce? This is a really good track for an ULL for most of us. Especially as it deepens. This capture would likely favors Mass and N CT on NE. That withstanding, if the capture were to slow the storm down enough.. You would then have a chance for some stronger wrap around snows to NNJ and LI.. Possibly NYC and ofc S CT 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, JDClapper said: Go on.... 😅 Williamsport is the new PA jackpot for snow lottery 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Popular Post MaineJay Posted March 13, 2023 Admin Popular Post Share Posted March 13, 2023 Regardless of future track, you don't always see such a pretty low roll of OBX. 4 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 30 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Remember when the 2016 blizzard had confluence…….yea, I remember that March 3rd 2018. No clue what the setup was but Tobyhanna got crushed 20+. Only called for 4-6 when I left for the slopes. Berks scored a 0 on that, once I got on the northeast extension snow was gone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Water vapor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 (edited) 53 minutes ago, Poco said: I remember setups like this producing dbl lows too and just one huge mega band that stretched from eastern PA all the way up into New England (forget the exact storm ) miller Bs always my favorite as I can remember storms that we were forecasted for 2-4 and ended with 24 (Feb 10, 2010) heck I wouldn’t be surprised if clapper somehow got 3-6” but given how this winter has gone I know it’s Lmost impossible to believe a storm can over perform in a year like we’ve had. But we do have the most anomalous MJO phase 8 propagations in history and when one driver is anomalous it means other stuff could be trigger other anomalous stuff to occur What would be the significance of having such an anomalous MJO phase 8 for this system? The blocking? Edited March 13, 2023 by PA road DAWG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Sone convection firing over Daytona beach, not quite the Jax rule but as the adage goes of there’s convection on the fla coast the latent heat can help pump heights out infront Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 13, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 hour ago, StretchCT said: Already seeing a CAD signal back into NNJ. Not sure why with an intensifying low to the south that would be wiped out, but the RAP does wipe it out. The area from Western PA into NY and Canada slowly dies off but still is moving east in time so it squashes any real CAD look. Not a bit of high pressure up north to feed into the system so whatever remnant cold there is before the injection from the west comes is what we have. Hence the area from surface to about 3000' was always the problem area. The closer to the coast the harder it is to cool it quick even in a Dynamic system. Areas that manage to just be cold enough will manage quite well. 1 hour ago, PA road DAWG said: Remember when the 2016 blizzard had confluence…….yea, I remember that i member! Was probably my last solid snowstorm shut down Lancaster. On March 21,2018 we got another snowstorm around 12-14" so can't complain I guess it has only been 5 years? 52 minutes ago, Poco said: Honestly I’ve seen storms like this capture just below LI instead of running the surface lp up the coast does that happen here? No clue but if it does it’s a whole different ball game. This could honestly be why mt Holly seems to be going with history over modeling That piece of energy just east of Boston in that pic is most likely the low. If we take a look at surface temps leading up to this you see the greatest temp difference exists further south. Inverted trough to the remnants of surface low pressure through NY and into southern Canada initially gets some intense precip going which could help areas of NEPA and NNJ. You can see the very broad area of 1012-1014mb that wipes out any CAD signature as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted March 13, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 13, 2023 That'll do pig, that'll do.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: What would be the significance of having such an anomalous MJO phase 8 for this system? The blocking? Try not to think of everything so literally with how the weather works. There is Nothing in particular that I’m going to point to that’s going to make this storm dump more snow or get captured earlier, but in weather when one anomalous thing occurs it’s connection with other indices or corollaries can occur. I think for nor’easters phase 7 will always be my preference. Phase 8 and 1 I believe are more attributed to cold here in the east. Another thing this MJO propagation is kick starting the quicker flip to an enso positive state. We’ve had a very very dull winter in regards to pattern driving influences so literally anything that can help the northeast right now is welcomed if you are a snow lover. The pna, epo and mjo /enso have all really not favored a solid winter pattern here at all. For certain though, the western US is seeing moisture and anomalous snow from this record propagation so it is indeed affection Ming us to an extent, just not a clear and concise one like one may want to see. I am a big fan of reading the mjo forecasts weekly with the Global tropics hazards (GTH) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghaz/index.php there is so much still left to learn about how the tropics interact with Northern hemisphere winters and the stratosphere. Like the surface has hardly been scratched in that regard. simply put it’s been a dull winter, so a record phase 8 propagation definitely didn’t hurt our chances, in fact it may be the reason why we are seeing the next few waves have winter chances. I just can’t point exactly to why except maybe showing you boring composites which aren’t going to point to one magical thing. It’s just all connected, that’s about it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 13, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 13, 2023 Warm surface temps still rather high dews especially on the coastal plain. Temps at 925mb are meh at best would like to see more widespread -2C if folks are interested in snow. This is the main reason why elevation gets it the worst less time for melting but this is heavy wet snow. The far north end of the snow will manage ok ratios 10:1-12:1 the killer of it all is actually having the 850's in solid territory for snow and the lower levels just not cooperating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 13, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 hour ago, Uscg Ast said: This capture would likely favors Mass and N CT on NE. That withstanding, if the capture were to slow the storm down enough.. You would then have a chance for some stronger wrap around snows to NNJ and LI.. Possibly NYC and ofc S CT Wasn’t talking about the capture but I remember being told that the N and W side of the ULL generated precip regardless of the sfc low status. Probably something Bernie or Joe said or from an AFD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 (edited) This is the hrrr replacement that maue posted. In the next couple years. Edited March 13, 2023 by Poco 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 13, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, Poco said: Try not to think of everything so literally with how the weather works. There is Nothing in particular that I’m going to point to that’s going to make this storm dump more snow or get captured earlier, but in weather when one anomalous thing occurs it’s connection with other indices or corollaries can occur. I think for nor’easters phase 7 will always be my preference. Phase 8 and 1 I believe are more attributed to cold here in the east. Another thing this MJO propagation is kick starting the quicker flip to an enso positive state. We’ve had a very very dull winter in regards to pattern driving influences so literally anything that can help the northeast right now is welcomed if you are a snow lover. The pna, epo and mjo /enso have all really not favored a solid winter pattern here at all. For certain though, the western US is seeing moisture and anomalous snow from this record propagation so it is indeed affection Ming us to an extent, just not a clear and concise one like one may want to see. I am a big fan of reading the mjo forecasts weekly with the Global tropics hazards (GTH) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghaz/index.php there is so much still left to learn about how the tropics interact with Northern hemisphere winters and the stratosphere. Like the surface has hardly been scratched in that regard. simply put it’s been a dull winter, so a record phase 8 propagation definitely didn’t hurt our chances, in fact it may be the reason why we are seeing the next few waves have winter chances. I just can’t point exactly to why except maybe showing you boring composites which aren’t going to point to one magical thing. It’s just all connected, that’s about it. Yea one could think of the idea since it has been so wet along the west coast when we finally do actually get a ridging pattern it is not nearly as intense with lack of major drought to have a feedback and allow a stronger ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 20 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Wasn’t talking about the capture but I remember being told that the N and W side of the ULL generated precip regardless of the sfc low status. Probably something Bernie or Joe said or from an AFD. That’s an interesting one, Will have to keep that in mind for future trackings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 (edited) No flakes here at all this morning and afternoon it was a light drizzle which has turned into a steady light rain since, in the foothills of the poconos Edited March 13, 2023 by Poco 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 13, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 13, 2023 26 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Wasn’t talking about the capture but I remember being told that the N and W side of the ULL generated precip regardless of the sfc low status. Probably something Bernie or Joe said or from an AFD. I think you might get better ratios on the NW side. *Generally* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 13, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 13, 2023 (edited) 38 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Wasn’t talking about the capture but I remember being told that the N and W side of the ULL generated precip regardless of the sfc low status. Probably something Bernie or Joe said or from an AFD. 850mb is NW of the low, at 500mb I would say NE of the ULL is best place but orientation changes will occur it is basically where your best PVA is pointing in a negative tilt situation it points N and NW so maybe that is what you may be referring too? How sharp or rounded the base of the trough plays a role too. Edited March 13, 2023 by so_whats_happening 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 (edited) Huge flakes falling now. Funny because the radar returns don't show much, but it's snowing hard. Edited March 13, 2023 by TheComet 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 13, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 13, 2023 37 minutes ago, TheComet said: Huge flakes falling now. Funny because the radar returns don't show much, but it's snowing hard. NE PA seems like it has terrible radar coverage. I feel lucky to be <15 miles from the GYX site. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Warning for 5-8 here but I’m expecting much less to be honest. fwiw here the latest euro 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 What is THETA-E advection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted March 13, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 13, 2023 32 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Warning for 5-8 here but I’m expecting much less to be honest. fwiw here the latest euro Looks like I maybe ordering up some steaks for a party.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now