Moderators telejunkie Posted March 7, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 7, 2023 19 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Ukie track. 960s just outside the 70/40 benchmark....would make several members happy. A round of Titos may be in order.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 (edited) Here we go again, same ole song and dance. Let’s see how long this one holds up before it gets shattered and shunted ots. IMO, a lot of this depends on the pac ridge. As you can see in the images I attached below there’s a wave crashing into the north pac northwest. If we can get that to continue to slow and remain offshore that will help keep the pac ridge in an ideal location for us east coast snow lovers. The quicker and stronger that wave is will only aide in pushing that pac ridge further east, therefore resulting in an east coast storm further east and less impactful. The 12z eps definitely trended in the right direction compared to the 00z runs, so let’s see how this goes. Edited March 7, 2023 by PA road DAWG 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted March 7, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 7, 2023 1 hour ago, TLChip said: I do too but after talking about snow shots for 3 months and coming out with 2”… you get the idea. At least everyone’s snow pictures are nice ☃️. Jealously and envy that’s all. My uneducated thought, pattern continues. Disorganized cutter late coastal. Between PA/NY border is where it’s cold enough to snow, south of that it will snow/mix to rain. I’ll put $10 to that a week out. While I hear you TL....I'm gonna be the guy that says that you can be a little more hopeful on this one. We've been stuck in a pattern with western troughing all winter. Coming up we've got both a nice looking ridge across the Rockies and downstream support (we've finally had downstream support for a little while but still western troughing). This is NOT what this winter pattern has looked like at all....emphasis on the fact that it finally looks decent (of course just as its ending). 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 13 minutes ago, telejunkie said: While I hear you TL....I'm gonna be the guy that says that you can be a little more hopeful on this one. We've been stuck in a pattern with western troughing all winter. Coming up we've got both a nice looking ridge across the Rockies and downstream support (we've finally had downstream support for a little while but still western troughing). This is NOT what this winter pattern has looked like at all....emphasis on the fact that it finally looks decent (of course just as its ending). Let's take these players now instead of May. This is certainly a different look. Even looks to hold SE ridgeoff enough. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 7, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 7, 2023 1 hour ago, telejunkie said: 960s just outside the 70/40 benchmark....would make several members happy. A round of Titos may be in order.... Such a tease - my bet is that Maine gets snow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 7, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 7, 2023 Crazy heights on the Euro op Versus the Ensemble Can't buy a storm though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted March 7, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted March 7, 2023 Thy seafaring beast looms just offshore.. I dare thee to come pillage coast! Arrgghh!😂 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 21 minutes ago, Penn State said: Thy seafaring beast looms just offshore.. I dare thee to come pillage coast! Arrgghh!😂 Multiple streams at play there.... Serious hp over the top, doubt the push is so far south 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 8, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 8, 2023 Ukie is flattest, kinda to be expected these days ECMWF looks like it wants to do s little loop as the storm occludes and fills in (weakens) JMA crawls up the new England coast, and spins itself out over Maine, similar to the ECMWF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 8, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 8, 2023 Gfs 24 hour trend 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 8, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 8, 2023 So much has to do with how energy rotating INVOF Hudson Bay behaves. The GFS swings a lobe down into James Bay, this is why it's been kicking the storm more easterly. Whereas the ECMWF pulls it poleward, and allows the main trof to close off, and slow it's roll. The 4 operational models for static comparison 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodozer1 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 temps just don't support snow it is what it is but maybe one of these storms can surprise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 8, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 8, 2023 Is the answer in the middle or do all the options shift N or S? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted March 8, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just to get an idea regarding snowfall outputs.. here's each model at hour 144 (24 hour snowfall / 10:1). It's not a blockbuster.. but at this moment in time, would be a nice little snowfall for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted March 8, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted March 8, 2023 The difference at hour 120 between the GFS and GDPS.. Who wins the battle? Weak / SE or Strong / NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 8, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 8, 2023 Be nice if the trough or upper low dropped down a bit more behind this one. But not too much. There is some progress being made with the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Gfs and gefs not so impressed with this. Curious to see if the euro holds or folds. Gfs been winning these lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 8, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 8, 2023 Ukie uncharacteristically grabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted March 8, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 8, 2023 20 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Gfs and gefs not so impressed with this. Curious to see if the euro holds or folds. Gfs been winning these lately CMC bringing it back to the coast.... CMC vs GFS much different by hr105. Looking at ensembles, CMC looks closer to the consensus...maybe there's a hint of wishcasting in there though... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Of course it will snow when I am on vacation in Myrtle beach. Of course they are going to be 10-15 degrees less than normal on temps too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 8, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 8, 2023 12 minutes ago, Wtkidz said: Of course it will snow when I am on vacation in Myrtle beach. Can you vacation there for say... next Dec to Feb? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 8, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 8, 2023 23 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Ukie uncharacteristically grabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lazman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 16 minutes ago, Wtkidz said: Of course it will snow when I am on vacation in Myrtle beach. Of course they are going to be 10-15 degrees less than normal on temps too. I'm heading to Charleston on Sunday, where temperatures next week are supposed to be BELOW average. Wouldn't surprise me to see a few flakes flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 8, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 8, 2023 (edited) 6 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Weird low going inland with the main low not far from where this mornings run was. I see the main low on the 500mb but nothing driving that inland one. Edited March 8, 2023 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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