PA road DAWG Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Poco said: NWS with a warning here for 12-18 inches. I know these type of storms are unpredictable and often overperform, but wow, they going for it Do they know or see something we don’t ?!?? Wow unless maybe they’re using the HREF model. snow and qpf Edited March 13, 2023 by PA road DAWG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 13, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 13, 2023 Hunter Mt jackpot? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 14 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Ideal nor’easters see a ridge over Idaho not Montana Not all nor’easters are the same 1 minute ago, PA road DAWG said: Do they know or see something we don’t ?!?? Wow It’s a unique storm type, miller bs often crush carbon and Monroe and areas that see no snow on modeling or just a few inches can end with feet. That’s why I stress not to throw I towel on this type of storm till it shows it’s cards, after the bands setup and the capture takes place then throw your towel. I don’t want any of this snow so if I could give it all to you I would. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 28 minutes ago, telejunkie said: have some scattered very light snow shower activity out there this morning...temps hovering right at 32F. Maybe already posted, but this morning's map from Burlington. SREF jumped up to 1' for Rutland airport just to my north...nice to see. I wonder if BTV makes some changes to their map after the 12Z model runs? SREFs for Burlington are 11" while BTV has forecast 1 1/2". There definitely seems to be a north trend on the models. Yesterday I was wondering if we'd get anything more than white rain. Today I should be checking the gas in the snowblower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 13, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 13, 2023 19 minutes ago, PA road DAWG said: Ideal nor’easters see a ridge over Idaho not Montana Lol, they do border each other. Besides, "ideal setup" doesn't exist in my book. While storms can show similarities, each storm is unique. You're never gonna have everything you want for a storm, save for every 25-50 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted March 13, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, MaineJay said: Hunter Mt jackpot? sure looks like it....3km NAM brings nearly a season's worth....🤣 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Nam rolling. Let’s see what it says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 13, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 13, 2023 This is some kinda cutoff. I think the HRRR is trying to see the Housatonic river valley here at the upper left corner. The Waterbury reference is the airport there which is 8 miles away. 1 to 9 inches within 8 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 13, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 13, 2023 NAM Trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Would love to see this get blocked and spin near Long Island instead of capE cod 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 (edited) 10 minutes ago, StretchCT said: NAM Trend These trend snowfall Maps can get be a bit misleading when model init looks like this the models sees this as digital snow that has already fallen prior to this frame and removes it in the Latest runs so you lose sone digital snow on the most recent runs as the model has already laid down a large covering of an 1-3 inches. So they end up looking like they are drying up. I try not to weigh them heavily unless you can show much is being left out if the latest frames Snow maps kinda suck Edited March 13, 2023 by Poco 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tool483 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 (edited) Reminds me of hurricanes when the thunderstorms are getting sheared off by the upper level winds. . Edited March 13, 2023 by tool483 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 The NAM MSLP did jump a good bit west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 13, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 13, 2023 Tropical guy in me says there's too much shear for this to form. The tops are getting blown off the thunderstorms. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, StretchCT said: Tropical guy in me says there's too much shear for this to form. The tops are getting blown off the thunderstorms. Asymmetrical venting feeds the strengthening! 🥹 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, Poco said: These trend snowfall Maps can get be a bit misleading when model init looks like this so you lose sone digital snow on the most recent runs as the model has already laid down a large covering of an 1-3 inches. So they end up looking like they are drying up. I try not to weigh them heavily unless you can show much is being left out if the latest s grands Steve D, said the convective nature of this storm is playing havoc with the models, what are your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tool483 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Tropical guy in me says there's too much shear for this to form. The tops are getting blown off the thunderstorms. hah, you beat me to it. I was thinking the same exact thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, NEPAsnow said: Steve D, said the convective nature of this storm is playing havoc with the models, what are your thoughts? I love lamp 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Honestly it’s just a wild miller b with an energy field that is playing havoc, I said yesterday or the other day that I think it’s less convective feedback being the issue and more of an issue with how the model is placing the mslp around a bunk area of extreme subsidence that it seen to keep trying to interior as not assimilating into the flow at h5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 6 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Tropical guy in me says there's too much shear for this to form. The tops are getting blown off the thunderstorms. Blame El Nin~o for the shear 🤣 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 thought i was watching an episode of the office for a sec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 13, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 13, 2023 7 minutes ago, Poco said: the models sees this as digital snow that has already fallen prior to this frame and removes it Are you saying that the radar isn't matching accumulation (which it doesn't), or are you saying that snow has fallen before the 12z initialization that is captured in prior runs, but not the 12z. The latter is true. Example: This is what has fallen prior to 12z on the 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 I prolly just broadly defined conv feedback so yea he’s prolly right. I’m not a Met so most of the time I just post based on what I’ve encountered over my 15 years following these storms. True meteorologists will always trump any knowledge I have. The advantage we have in here is that we can take stabs that other measured industry folks can’t. We don’t suffer much backlash for being wrong on an Internet forum 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Man so much shifting here that I refuse won't hang the towel until the very end like @Poco said, specially for fringe zones like mine were it can go either way. Wouldn't be surprised if mesos later on bring more digital snow back down this way after taking it away, I haven't seen weirder things 🤷 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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