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March 12-15, 2023 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm


Penn State

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Surprised they issues this only a few hours ago given the recent model trends north overnight.  Seems WAY overdone IMO
 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
419 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023

PAZ038-039-043-044-047-048-072-140830-
/O.UPG.KBGM.WS.A.0005.230313T1800Z-230315T1200Z/
/O.EXB.KBGM.WS.W.0006.230313T2200Z-230314T2200Z/
Bradford-Susquehanna-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-
Southern Wayne-
Including the cities of Sayre, Towanda, Hallstead, Montrose,
Tunkhannock, Scranton, Hazleton, Wilkes-Barre, Milford,
and Honesdale
419 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph Tuesday.

* WHERE...Bradford, Susquehanna, Wyoming, Lackawanna, Luzerne,
  Pike and Southern Wayne counties.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
  commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates overnight could approach 1
  to 2 inches per hour tonight. The valley floor of the Wyoming
  Valley will see totals on the lower end of the forecast with
  greatest accumulations above 1200 feet.

 

80B31826-EDCA-486E-90CA-12F1E653F1DF.jpeg

Edited by PA road DAWG
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I asked Steve D about mesoscale models north jump and he replied this.


“I think the guidance is overwhelmed by the convective nature of this storm.  This is when it is best to create a forecast idea and stick to the forecast driven by observations and more stable synoptic models.  The mesoscale models tells us the potential for intense banding in the snow shield is likely.”

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26 minutes ago, NEPAsnow said:

I asked Steve D about mesoscale models north jump and he replied this.


“I think the guidance is overwhelmed by the convective nature of this storm.  This is when it is best to create a forecast idea and stick to the forecast driven by observations and more stable synoptic models.  The mesoscale models tells us the potential for intense banding in the snow shield is likely.”

Yea There’s always going to be last min shifts. Who can forget March 2001 

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11 minutes ago, Brodozer1 said:

will this be another bust for my area 

Dropped to WWA for 2-5".  5-7 for those over 500ft.   That delineation is interesting since some of my road is over 500 feet and the hill I look out to my front is 600ft.  My neighbor across the street is over 500ft too. 

Spoiler
CTZ005-NJZ103-NYZ069-070-131600-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0002.230313T2300Z-230314T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0004.230314T0400Z-230315T1000Z/
Northern Fairfield-Western Bergen-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
358 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches.
  Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Northern Fairfield County. In New
  Jersey, Western Bergen County. In New York, Rockland and
  Northern Westchester Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS....Elevations above 500 ft will have
  accumulations closer to 5 and 7 inches. This is where power
  outages are possible due to heavy wet snow.

 

Edited by StretchCT
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11 minutes ago, Brodozer1 said:

will this be another bust for my area 

I’ve had 1 inch of snow ALL winter, my wife asked me this morning to call my pool guy to put us on the schedule to open it at the end of next month lol. 

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It's been going back and forth between light to light-moderate since around 6AM. There's a nice dusting everywhere to freshen up the existing 5" pack. But drive down hill to Stroudsburg and it's just wet and light rain. This is so elevation driven it's not even funny. 29F right now.

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have some scattered very light snow shower activity out there this morning...temps hovering right at 32F.

Maybe already posted, but this morning's map from Burlington. SREF jumped up to 1' for Rutland airport just to my north...nice to see.

StormTotalSnow.jpg

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Trying to see if the trough is pos/neut/neg.  SPC Meso anal says positive. This kicks it out further.

Screenshot2023-03-13at9_28_26AM.thumb.png.e27a934b20c5a3d012af6a438df56ca5.png

WV loop  - watching the vapor returns in VA/PA/NY which look more northerly indicating it may be closer to neutral.

CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-continental-conus-09-13_21Z-20230313_map_noBar-23-1n-10-100.thumb.gif.03b1fe7f205021091b5c879db7cce404.gif

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4 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Trying to see if the trough is pos/neut/neg.  SPC Meso anal says positive. This kicks it out further.

Screenshot2023-03-13at9_28_26AM.thumb.png.e27a934b20c5a3d012af6a438df56ca5.png

WV loop  - watching the vapor returns in VA/PA/NY which look more northerly indicating it may be closer to neutral.

CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-continental-conus-09-13_21Z-20230313_map_noBar-23-1n-10-100.thumb.gif.03b1fe7f205021091b5c879db7cce404.gif

Yea the pac ridge isn’t helping as there’s another wave crashing into the Nw coast

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If you told me that we'd be going to a negative tilt as a low pressure was moving over the benchmark, I'd say game on. Also, slow moving system. 

Screenshot2023-03-13at9_38_37AM.thumb.png.8c00c77515019991e95fd378d0dcbec9.png

 


Edited by StretchCT
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2 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

If you told me that we'd be going to a negative tilt as a low pressure was moving over the benchmark, I'd say game on. Also, slow moving system. 

Screenshot2023-03-13at9_38_37AM.thumb.png.8c00c77515019991e95fd378d0dcbec9.png

 

 

Wow the surface map just refused to show up on that post.

rap21.thumb.png.1da06b055f745bc5b98526af62cc673e.png

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56 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Dropped to WWA for 2-5".  5-7 for those over 500ft.   That delineation is interesting since some of my road is over 500 feet and the hill I look out to my front is 600ft.  My neighbor across the street is over 500ft too. 

  Hide contents
CTZ005-NJZ103-NYZ069-070-131600-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0002.230313T2300Z-230314T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0004.230314T0400Z-230315T1000Z/
Northern Fairfield-Western Bergen-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
358 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches.
  Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Northern Fairfield County. In New
  Jersey, Western Bergen County. In New York, Rockland and
  Northern Westchester Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS....Elevations above 500 ft will have
  accumulations closer to 5 and 7 inches. This is where power
  outages are possible due to heavy wet snow.

 

yup bust 

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